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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


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3 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Right around the same here man, we did good. Maybe a few more inches tonight, if so that will be the most I have seen since moving here in 2013. 5" is the sweet spot for me, anything more and it gets tough to walk in when you're in the woods hiking lol.

Yah this was a good one.   Was hoping for 8-10 but you know how that goes. 

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39 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Strangely enough it seems like this current wave of precip. is over performing now. Current snowfall where I'm at is heavier than last nights batch. Noticed the tail end of it is still out by Lawton. Wonder if it will hold together or if dry air will kill it as it moves east.

Man I been watching this all night, everytime I thought it was ready to hit us the cold dry air gobbled it up but then from no where it just started pouring down snow. Like you said, way heavier than last nights. It was short lived but more looks to be coming in shortly again for another hour or so if it holds!!! I can't tell ya how tired I am from lack of sleep lol

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11 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Thought my fun was over as we didn’t get any snow all day today, but then couple hours ago it started snowing and pretty big flakes too! Probably have added another inch or so, and I’m thinking the way it’s rotating, we get this last band for another inch.

What did you guys get so far from this whole event?

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Here we go NWS TULSA: 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
238 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Lat/Lon
3 ENE Rogers                 9.0 in    0202 PM 02/03   36.34N/94.06W
3 NNW Bella Vista            9.0 in    1044 AM 02/03   36.48N/94.25W
1 NNW Rogers                 7.5 in    1215 PM 02/03   36.35N/94.12W
Holiday Island 1.3 SSW       7.2 in    0700 AM 02/03   36.47N/93.74W
3 N Aurora                   7.0 in    0206 PM 02/03   36.03N/93.70W
1 S Garfield                 7.0 in    0110 PM 02/03   36.44N/93.97W
Lowell                       7.0 in    1250 PM 02/03   36.26N/94.14W
Hectorville                  7.0 in    0744 AM 02/03   35.85N/95.92W
Springdale                   6.5 in    0116 PM 02/03   36.19N/94.13W
1 SE Shady Grove             6.5 in    1215 PM 02/03   36.13N/94.13W
Rogers                       6.5 in    1000 AM 02/03   36.33N/94.13W
Siloam Springs 1.8 N         6.5 in    0930 AM 02/03   36.21N/94.55W
Centerton                    6.2 in    1115 AM 02/03   36.36N/94.29W
3 ENE Jenks                  6.2 in    0738 AM 02/03   36.03N/95.92W
Ochelata 5.6 N               6.2 in    0700 AM 02/03   36.68N/95.99W
Huntsville                   6.0 in    1246 PM 02/03   36.09N/93.74W
2 SE Wheeler                 6.0 in    1159 AM 02/03   36.09N/94.23W
6 W Claremore                6.0 in    0932 AM 02/03   36.32N/95.73W
Stilwell                     6.0 in    0920 AM 02/03   35.82N/94.63W
Bentonville                  6.0 in    0904 AM 02/03   36.37N/94.21W
4 SSE Jenks                  6.0 in    0748 AM 02/03   35.97N/95.94W
Eureka Springs               6.0 in    0748 AM 02/03   36.40N/93.75W
Pea Ridge 0.2 WSW            5.8 in    0800 AM 02/03   36.45N/94.12W
3 SSE Sperry                 5.6 in    0810 AM 02/03   36.26N/95.97W
2 W Fayetteville             5.5 in    0109 PM 02/03   36.06N/94.19W
Cleveland                    5.5 in    0940 AM 02/03   36.31N/96.46W
Bartlesville                 5.5 in    0930 AM 02/03   36.75N/95.98W
Eureka Springs 3.5 SW        5.5 in    0800 AM 02/03   36.37N/93.79W
6 NW Verdigris               5.5 in    0700 AM 02/03   36.30N/95.75W
Sand Springs 2.7 S           5.5 in    0700 AM 02/03   36.10N/96.13W
Claremore 7.5 W              5.5 in    0700 AM 02/03   36.30N/95.75W
3 E Owasso                   5.1 in    1252 PM 02/03   36.27N/95.81W
Jay 3.3 NNE                  5.1 in    0800 AM 02/03   36.47N/94.78W
3 S Collinsville             5.0 in    1158 AM 02/03   36.32N/95.85W
5 N Bixby                    5.0 in    1140 AM 02/03   36.01N/95.87W
1 NNW Hindsville             5.0 in    1100 AM 02/03   36.16N/93.87W
5 NE Hiwasse                 5.0 in    1049 AM 02/03   36.49N/94.28W
2 WSW Centerton              5.0 in    1047 AM 02/03   36.35N/94.32W
4 NE Tahlequah               5.0 in    0945 AM 02/03   35.96N/94.92W
4 SSE Tulsa                  5.0 in    0931 AM 02/03   36.07N/95.90W
Pryor                        5.0 in    0920 AM 02/03   36.31N/95.32W
2 NW Springdale              5.0 in    0920 AM 02/03   36.20N/94.15W
Hominy                       5.0 in    0920 AM 02/03   36.42N/96.39W
Westville                    5.0 in    0915 AM 02/03   35.99N/94.57W
Fayetteville                 5.0 in    0845 AM 02/03   36.06N/94.16W
1 SW Farmington              5.0 in    0817 AM 02/03   36.03N/94.27W
1 SW Bentonville             5.0 in    0815 AM 02/03   36.37N/94.22W
5 N Maysville                5.0 in    0749 AM 02/03   36.48N/94.61W
Wyandotte                    5.0 in    0715 AM 02/03   36.80N/94.73W
Rogers 2.4 SSW               5.0 in    0700 AM 02/03   36.30N/94.14W
1 ENE Prairie Grove          4.5 in    1042 AM 02/03   35.98N/94.30W
Tahlequah                    4.5 in    0930 AM 02/03   35.92N/94.97W
Tulsa 1.5 WNW                4.5 in    0800 AM 02/03   36.13N/95.94W
5 E Jenks                    4.5 in    0747 AM 02/03   36.02N/95.89W
Eureka Springs               4.5 in    0729 AM 02/03   36.39N/93.74W
3 E Sapulpa                  4.4 in    0938 AM 02/03   36.00N/96.07W
Owasso 4.6 ENE               4.2 in    0804 AM 02/03   36.30N/95.76W
1 SW Schulter                4.1 in    0959 AM 02/03   35.51N/95.96W
2 SE Cleora                  4.0 in    1204 PM 02/03   36.55N/94.95W
4 W Broken Arrow             4.0 in    1120 AM 02/03   36.05N/95.87W
1 SE Okmulgee                4.0 in    1030 AM 02/03   35.62N/95.95W
Bristow                      4.0 in    0950 AM 02/03   35.83N/96.39W
Colcord                      4.0 in    0940 AM 02/03   36.27N/94.69W
Vinita                       4.0 in    0920 AM 02/03   36.64N/95.15W
Vian                         4.0 in    0846 AM 02/03   35.50N/94.97W
Rogers                       4.0 in    0845 AM 02/03   36.33N/94.12W
Huntsville                   4.0 in    0812 AM 02/03   36.09N/93.74W
Drumright 0.6 SW             4.0 in    0730 AM 02/03   35.98N/96.61W
4 S Broken Arrow             3.8 in    0802 AM 02/03   36.00N/95.79W
Tulsa 8.4 ESE                3.8 in    0800 AM 02/03   36.10N/95.77W
3 W Broken Arrow             3.5 in    1048 AM 02/03   36.05N/95.85W
Mcalester                    3.5 in    0950 AM 02/03   34.94N/95.77W
3 N Sallisaw                 3.0 in    0201 PM 02/03   35.51N/94.79W
Checotah                     3.0 in    0143 PM 02/03   35.48N/95.52W
5 SSE Tulsa                  3.0 in    1158 AM 02/03   36.07N/95.89W
2 E Muskogee                 3.0 in    1025 AM 02/03   35.75N/95.33W
2.9 S Kingston               3.0 in    1009 AM 02/03   36.01N/93.52W
4 NE Okesa                   3.0 in    0920 AM 02/03   36.75N/96.07W
1 S Eureka Springs           3.0 in    0716 AM 02/03   36.38N/93.74W
Metalton 3.5 W               3.0 in    0700 AM 02/03   36.23N/93.59W
5 SE Kingston                2.5 in    0141 PM 02/03   36.01N/93.45W
Gore                         2.0 in    0940 AM 02/03   35.53N/95.11W
Muskogee                     2.0 in    0940 AM 02/03   35.75N/95.37W
Stigler                      2.0 in    0920 AM 02/03   35.26N/95.12W
Ketchum                      2.0 in    0757 AM 02/03   36.52N/95.03W
Pryor 2.2 SE                 2.0 in    0700 AM 02/03   36.27N/95.30W
1 NE Van Buren               1.5 in    0150 PM 02/03   35.45N/94.33W
Sallisaw 1.0 SE              1.3 in    0800 AM 02/03   35.45N/94.80W
Sallisaw                     1.0 in    0846 AM 02/03   35.46N/94.78W
Uniontown 2.1 ESE            1.0 in    0700 AM 02/03   35.57N/94.41W
5 SE Kingston                0.5 in    0826 AM 02/03   36.01N/93.45W
Antlers 6.3 SE               0.5 in    0800 AM 02/03   34.16N/95.54W

...SLEET REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Lat/Lon
Talihina                     1.0 in    0840 AM 02/03   34.75N/95.05W
5 SE Kingston                1.0 in    0825 AM 02/03   36.01N/93.45W
Finley                       1.0 in    0809 AM 02/03   34.33N/95.49W
Soper                        0.8 in    0819 AM 02/03   34.03N/95.70W
Wilburton                    0.5 in    0953 AM 02/03   34.92N/95.31W
Rattan                       0.5 in    0827 AM 02/03   34.20N/95.41W
2 SE Cleora                  0.3 in    1205 PM 02/03   36.55N/94.95W

...FREEZING RAIN REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Lat/Lon
Mulberry                     0.50 in   0930 AM 02/03   35.50N/94.05W
Talihina                     0.50 in   0838 AM 02/03   34.75N/95.05W
Honobia                      0.38 in   1045 AM 02/03   34.54N/94.94W
Hugo                         0.25 in   0820 AM 02/03   34.01N/95.52W
Soper                        0.25 in   0818 AM 02/03   34.03N/95.70W
Finley                       0.25 in   0809 AM 02/03   34.33N/95.49W
Rattan                       0.10 in   0827 AM 02/03   34.20N/95.41W

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official

 

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Well, snow has finally melted off for the most part from the last snow, but I'm already curious what the next system may have in store. Pretty good agreement among models that there is going to by a fairly potent system middle of next week. While the moisture is certainly needed, I haven't been too excited regarding snow potential here locally. This feels like a NW/NC KS into Nebraska type storm to me when it comes to snow. Unlike the past storm AO index looks to be comfortably positive during this time. However, some of the recent model runs including today's 12Z Euro breathe some life into the potential for more snow. We'll see what happens, but regardless I like the signal for good moisture around this area. 

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NWS Springfield Mo. has this to say :  

"

..."Ensembles then diverge slightly with the ejection of the trough
Wednesday through Thursday. The trend over the last 24 hours has
been to eject the trough further south into Texas and Arkansas.
This would generally allow for a warm period with rain Wednesday
and Wednesday night, then colder with some potential change over
to wintry precip on Thursday as the system departs. Recent NBM
runs continue to come in colder with temps on Thursday. GEFS and
ECMWF ensembles currently have probabilities over 50% for 1 inch
or more of rainfall with this system. The Extreme Forecast Index
does highlight the potential for a heavy precip event near the
area. NBM probabilities for any wintry precip on the backside of
this system is currently over 70% therefore will need to monitor
the track of this system as it comes on shore Monday."....
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Well, since my previous post last Thursday, all is not yet lost for this upcoming storm. GFS has fairly consistently provided the most QPF from this system, aside from a few runs over the weekend. The GEM has been siding with the Euro for the most part, up until today, which is now showing solid QPF into SC KS falling more in line with GFS. Euro is still sticking to its guns for the most part, shunting the heaviest precip amounts southeast of ICT. I'll be curious to see which models start to cave to the others as we get closer. I'm not taking the NAM into consideration just yet, but for what it's worth, it has heavy precip across the area. I will say the trends seem to have peaked Wichita's NWS office attention, as they are now mentioning the potential of higher impact event in their forecast discussion, but they're not ready to go there in headlines just yet. Understandable with the continued model discrepancy. Would be crazy to have two impactful winter storms within a couple weeks of each other!

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Well we're within 24 hours of this event and if anything it seems this storm has trended up for me here. Conservative 5-8" prediction on snow, but it would not shock me to see reports of some approaching a foot of snow when all is said and done very near by somewhere along the I35 corridor. Multiple models are cranking out QPF totals of over 1" with much of it falling after temps are well below freezing. How quickly the transition from sleet to snow occurs will be the deciding factor as this storm is a quick hitter and it dumps a lot of precip in a short amount of time. Can't say how nice it is to see a classic storm with a system moving up out of the southwest. This moisture is badly needed! 

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23 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

Well we're within 24 hours of this event and if anything it seems this storm has trended up for me here. Conservative 5-8" prediction on snow, but it would not shock me to see reports of some approaching a foot of snow when all is said and done very near by somewhere along the I35 corridor. Multiple models are cranking out QPF totals of over 1" with much of it falling after temps are well below freezing. How quickly the transition from sleet to snow occurs will be the deciding factor as this storm is a quick hitter and it dumps a lot of precip in a short amount of time. Can't say how nice it is to see a classic storm with a system moving up out of the southwest. This moisture is badly needed! 

Enjoy it! I’ll take an inch of mood flakes here in Tulsa If we can manage!

 

 

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Looking past tonight/tomorrow morning's event, TSA had this to say.

 

"The forecast could turn pretty messy winter
weather wise for the middle to latter part of next week. Large
positive tilt upper trough in the West allows a more shallow
arctic airmass to ooze south down the Plains like spilled milk,
while lift increases over the top in a sw flow warm advection
regime ahead of ejecting trough. This could spell trouble, but
these details will continue to be refined in the coming days."

 

Translation, we have ourselves a potential setup for an ice storm later next week.

 

The storm in question.

 

GFS

1645725600-HppDd9CJidA.png

 

Canadian

1645617600-MU1WGzaBDGQ.png

 

Euro

 

1645768800-8ErwriodeeM.png

 

Still a ways out, but there is a consensus in the models regarding a favorable setup for our area.

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