The Waterboy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 00z NAM shifted SE again out to hr57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, The Waterboy said: 00z NAM shifted SE again out to hr57. Yes, colder look and more snow in parts of AR and far eastern OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Not much frz rain over far NW AR this run. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The NAM does seem to lose the 2nd wave of snow for Thursday like the 12z GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Not a lot of change on the 00z RGEM, less amounts overall but snowfall positioning was pretty similar to 18z run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Once this snow and ice is laid down, GFS tonight doesn't warm parts of SW MO above 32º until Monday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The Euro just smiled on the NW AR peeps wanting a lot of snow. Looks like heavy snow slams the area on midnight Thursday. (06z UTC) Snow then lingers well into Friday too. (accumulation map shows Noonish Friday with flurries possibly remaining) Also almost every GFS ensemble is showing the 4 state region getting slammed with heavy snow. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z NAM just went bonkers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, The Waterboy said: 12z NAM just went bonkers. Incredible amounts on most models now. And I don't think much of that will be sleet for our area in Benton Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 In addition to the NAM, here was the 12Z of the HRRR, and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 TSA mentioning potential lake effect snow in north to south oriented lakes here in OK. Specifically mentions Lake Oologah, which I can confirm produced lake effect snow at my house last year during the intense cold snap. I'm just summarizing here, but they essentially said, that at a minimum, NE OK and NW AR should see 4 inches of snow, but could see 7-10 inches in a "reasonable worst case scenario". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Also, their decision support page went off the charts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travisstorma Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Wow. Can’t recall I’ve ever seen white on that graphic!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 That can't be real! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z GFS pretty much the same as the last two runs. Big event overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I think the sleet will be well south of I 44 now and that heavy snow event looks to be legit with the moisture and ratios in play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 You know...there is technically blizzard criteria wind gusts associated with this during the heavy snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: You know...there is technically blizzard criteria wind gusts associated with this during the heavy snow.. With light weight snow there will be blowing and drifting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Well, the Decision Page came down to reality! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, ouamber said: Well, the Decision Page came down to reality! LOL I figured it would lol. My assumption is that it's generated by using a blend of models, and they don't actively make it themselves. So sometimes it has an error, or grabs an erroneous model run that sends it to the moon, etc. Point is, I don't usually take much stock in their decision support page lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I still think 10-12 is possible up in the NE corner of OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Canadian backed off a little on amounts, but still showing 6+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I also think the cold air will be a bit ahead of schedule it looks to be entering the NW part of OK now. http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/metar/maps/realtime/latest.tair.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 30 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Canadian backed off a little on amounts, but still showing 6+ inches. Model consensus at this point would show a 6-8 lock for a lot of us on here. Some probably in excess of 10. Great storm any way you slice it IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 How are we feeling, everyone? This definitely looks like the most impactful winter storm our forum has had in sometime! Have you all chucked the global models and started looking at short-term stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: How are we feeling, everyone? This definitely looks like the most impactful winter storm our forum has had in sometime! Have you all chucked the global models and started looking at short-term stuff? Feeling pretty good, surprisingly. Definitely transitioning to a now cast. Will be monitoring temps to see how quickly cold air pushes in. As of now appears a transition to snow occurs around 11p-12a or so here locally. Appears most will see good snow here in SC Ks, with a few lucky folks getting under a heavy band or two to get the higher end of predictions. So will be watching radar trends closely as snow sets in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'm betting this will be comparable to the Jan 2010 storm. EDIT: Now if we can get the cold air in here sooner on all levels and not get dry slotted unlike this past system we had earlier in January, I can see this being a redux of the Groundhog Day 2011 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 30 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: I'm betting this will be comparable to the Jan 2010 storm. EDIT: Now if we can get the cold air in here sooner on all levels and not get dry slotted unlike this past system we had earlier in January, I can see this being a redux of the Groundhog Day 2011 storm. I wasn't here until 2013 but my buddy actually told me about that 2011 storm and said ya'll got a ton of snow? from that one! Feb 1st 2011 we lived in Missouri(central) and it was the most intense heavy snow I ever witnessed in my life probly, we got nearly 25" of snow from that storm in maybe 8-10 hours!! Of course it had melted off in a few days and was a complete mud/flood mess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 44 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: I wasn't here until 2013 but my buddy actually told me about that 2011 storm and said ya'll got a ton of snow? from that one! Feb 1st 2011 we lived in Missouri(central) and it was the most intense heavy snow I ever witnessed in my life probly, we got nearly 25" of snow from that storm in maybe 8-10 hours!! Of course it had melted off in a few days and was a complete mud/flood mess lol. Yeah 14"-24" was common along I-44. Then a few days later (Feb 8th-9th) a similar storm dropped nearly the same amount along the 412 corridor into NW AR. That was also around the time the record -31 low was recorded in Nowata, OK. December 2013 was a decent storm system too. On the low end this storm could be comparable to that one as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'm sure everyone would check 'YES' here: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now