StormChazer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 NAM with a SE nudge on the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 06Z NAM vs the 12Z NAM. BIG SE jump with the snow(and still snowing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 ^^ Why it's hard to trust the NAM past 48 hours. It's prone to large run to run swings. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 TSA.. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Precipitation starts off as freezing rain, then transitions to sleet and eventually snow as the event progresses. Ice accumulations of one tenth to one half of an inch possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 10 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous driving conditions will disrupt daily life later this week. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Emergency managers and first responders should continue to prepare for a winter storm later this week. A disruption to daily life is likely, with threats to life and property possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: ^^ Why it's hard to trust the NAM past 48 hours. It's prone to large run to run swings. Agreed on the NAM as a whole, but would you say the highest confidence in significant snow impacts is from C KS into C MO? Also, saw the models average Kuchera ratios between 14 & 15:1 for this event, do you think that's accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z GFS back to a solid snowstorm for C & S KS, N OK into SW-C MO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Latest GFS. On top of the warm nose receding to the SE, it really dumps some good snow on the back end of the storm Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Fairly significant shift SE on GFS from 00z to 12z. Pivotal Kuchera maps shows: TULSA 00z - 3.6” 06z - 13.4” 12z - 15.2” JOPLIN 00z - 9.0 06z - 10.1 12z - 12.7 BENTONVILLE 00z - 2.5 06z - 4.6 12z - 9.8 FAYETTEVILLE 00z - 1.8 06z - 4.7 12z - 5.6 I think Chazer just posted the Weather Bell map so the totals might be off a bit but we all get the gist of the SE shift. EDIT: Nice shift SE on the GEFS ensemble too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Interesting times ahead this week, guys and gals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 If this is anywhere close to right then locations below freezing will have a helluva storm. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Not going to Lie, I'm worried about freezing rain. Every time I hear or see that word I get nervous, been through some really bad bad ice storms since moving out here! Hopefully things trend more SE and push us all into the snow/sleet zone more. Someones going to get nailed by this I feel!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Saw a couple posts on twitter about how the GFS, Euro and nam are all too fast with the cold air so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On a side note Oklahoma had a 4.5m earthquake this morning. Earthquakes and big winter storms? Feels like 2011 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z Euro further SE out to 60. Should be a good run for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just looking at the 10:1's for here at hour 84, Euro 9.3", GFS 9.4", GEM 7.0", NAM 7.4", RGEM 8.5" Looking like maybe 6+" is a good possibility assuming no warm nose funny business. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 12z Euro further SE out to 60. Should be a good run for us. Yes, Euro looking solid for even us in far NWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Here in Wichita, while I'm confident I'm going to get snow, I can already see how this busts for me locally. Most of our snow, (if not all) appears to come from the first wave and the overrunning event that takes place as the front is moving south. Living just southeast of Wichita, how soon this starts and how quickly this transitions to all snow will be critical in maximizing snow totals. Also, need some luck on where the heavier bands set up. Initially I thought we'd get some additional accumulation from the stronger secondary wave but it appears this largely misses us to the southeast giving ne ok/se ks/sw missouri a good snow. My fear is I get a rather short duration of snow here, and places west of me end up with higher totals because of quicker changeover to all snow, and places south and east of me cash in with the secondary wave. Leaving me in the middle with an underwhelming snow. 12Z Euro shows this and I've seen hints of this in other models as well. Hope not, but I'm preparing myself for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, RocketWX said: Here in Wichita, while I'm confident I'm going to get snow, I can already see how this busts for me locally. Most of our snow, (if not all) appears to come from the first wave and the overrunning event that takes place as the front is moving south. Living just southeast of Wichita, how soon this starts and how quickly this transitions to all snow will be critical in maximizing snow totals. Also, need some luck on where the heavier bands set up. Initially I thought we'd get some additional accumulation from the stronger secondary wave but it appears this largely misses us to the southeast giving ne ok/se ks/sw missouri a good snow. My fear is I get a rather short duration of snow here, and places west of me end up with higher totals because of quicker changeover to all snow, and places south and east of me cash in with the secondary wave. Leaving me in the middle with an underwhelming snow. 12Z Euro shows this and I've seen hints of this in other models as well. Hope not, but I'm preparing myself for it. That is a really good point on a possible failure mode, at least for us out here. If there's any consolation, I would say the NAM is too warm in the mid-levels and at the surface. IMO I don't think we're going to have sleet with 925 mb, 850 mb, and 700 mb temps around -5C at 6z Wed. Once the precip starts, it should cool the column sufficently to change us to all snow. And all the models suggest that the precip rapidly expands and intensifies after midnight tomorrow into Wednesday. I think we'll do all right here, but to jack, we need to get under a band that doesn't move. It's been 13 months since the last >6" snowfall here. I'm prepared for doom here too, man. But, we do need the moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Through 48 hours the 18z NAM is going to tick SE with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 TSA expanded the winter storm watch to it's entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18Z NAM results. And still snowing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18z GFS colder and a little southeast for Wednesday. Pretty much lost the Thursday afternoon and evening portion of the storm for Oklahoma and parts of Texas as it opened the upper wave quicker and it gets strung out. Hoping that changes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Springfield's Winter weather page has all sorts of graphics. Looks like 6-8" for me expected. https://www.weather.gov/sgf/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Well Doug heady isn’t holding back. .1-.25” ice in Missouri, and then 5-10 inches of snow on top of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Lol the waffling of the forecast continues. TSA massively pulled back on amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Man what a massive storm this will be it seems! Someone was mentioning up to 3 feet of snow possible in ohio which is insane! Usually don't see this sort of thing unless its a bomb noreaster going up the coastline. Its a shame ( I guess still possible?) we can't get this thing to come further south to give us better snow, everything has to be so so picky perfect here it seems for that to happen lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 00z HRRR freezing rain at Hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 00z HRRR Kuchera snowfall at hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 NAM is looking interesting so far. Not sure what to make of it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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