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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


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TSA..

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Precipitation starts
  off as freezing rain, then transitions to sleet and eventually
  snow as the event progresses. Ice accumulations of one tenth to
  one half of an inch possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations
  of 1 to 10 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast
  Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  driving conditions will disrupt daily life later this week.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Emergency managers and first responders
  should continue to prepare for a winter storm later this week. A
  disruption to daily life is likely, with threats to life and
  property possible.
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3 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

^^ Why it's hard to trust the NAM past 48 hours. It's prone to large run to run swings. 

Agreed on the NAM as a whole, but would you say the highest confidence in significant snow impacts is from C KS into C MO? 

Also, saw the models average Kuchera ratios between 14 & 15:1 for this event, do you think that's accurate? 

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Fairly significant shift SE on GFS from 00z to 12z.   Pivotal Kuchera maps shows:

TULSA 

00z - 3.6”

06z - 13.4”

12z - 15.2”

JOPLIN

00z - 9.0

06z - 10.1

12z - 12.7

BENTONVILLE

00z - 2.5

06z - 4.6

12z - 9.8

FAYETTEVILLE 

00z - 1.8

06z - 4.7

12z - 5.6

I think Chazer just posted the Weather Bell map so the totals might be off a bit but we all get the gist of the SE shift.  
 

EDIT: Nice shift SE on the GEFS ensemble too. 

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Here in Wichita, while I'm confident I'm going to get snow, I can already see how this busts for me locally. Most of our snow, (if not all) appears to come from the first wave and the overrunning event that takes place as the front is moving south. Living just southeast of Wichita, how soon this starts and how quickly this transitions to all snow will be critical in maximizing snow totals. Also, need some luck on where the heavier bands set up. Initially I thought we'd get some additional accumulation from the stronger secondary wave but it appears this largely misses us to the southeast giving ne ok/se ks/sw missouri a good snow. My fear is I get a rather short duration of snow here, and places west of me end up with higher totals because of quicker changeover to all snow, and places south and east of me cash in with the secondary wave. Leaving me in the middle with an underwhelming snow. 12Z Euro shows this and I've seen hints of this in other models as well. Hope not, but I'm preparing myself for it. 

 

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20 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

Here in Wichita, while I'm confident I'm going to get snow, I can already see how this busts for me locally. Most of our snow, (if not all) appears to come from the first wave and the overrunning event that takes place as the front is moving south. Living just southeast of Wichita, how soon this starts and how quickly this transitions to all snow will be critical in maximizing snow totals. Also, need some luck on where the heavier bands set up. Initially I thought we'd get some additional accumulation from the stronger secondary wave but it appears this largely misses us to the southeast giving ne ok/se ks/sw missouri a good snow. My fear is I get a rather short duration of snow here, and places west of me end up with higher totals because of quicker changeover to all snow, and places south and east of me cash in with the secondary wave. Leaving me in the middle with an underwhelming snow. 12Z Euro shows this and I've seen hints of this in other models as well. Hope not, but I'm preparing myself for it. 

 

That is a really good point on a possible failure mode, at least for us out here.

If there's any consolation, I would say the NAM is too warm in the mid-levels and at the surface. IMO I don't think we're going to have sleet with 925 mb, 850 mb, and 700 mb temps around -5C at 6z Wed. Once the precip starts, it should cool the column sufficently to change us to all snow. And all the models suggest that the precip rapidly expands and intensifies after midnight tomorrow into Wednesday. I think we'll do all right here, but to jack, we need to get under a band that doesn't move. 

It's been 13 months since the last >6" snowfall here. I'm prepared for doom here too, man. But, we do need the moisture. 

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18z GFS colder and a little southeast for Wednesday. Pretty much lost the Thursday afternoon and evening  portion of the storm for Oklahoma and parts of Texas as it opened the upper wave quicker and it gets strung out. Hoping that changes back.

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Man what a massive storm this will be it seems! Someone was mentioning up to 3 feet of snow possible in ohio which is insane! Usually don't see this sort of thing unless its a bomb noreaster going up the coastline. Its a shame ( I guess still possible?) we can't get this thing to come further south to give us better snow, everything has to be so so picky perfect here it seems for that to happen lol. 

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