StormChazer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Oh, almost forgot the ice totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, andyhb said: I have a bad feeling about I-44 particularly in OK with this one. Setup screams either a big sleet event with snow/ZR mixed in, or a nasty ice storm. The magic I 44 line will be deciding once again. I am thinking a good sleet event in Tulsa metro with a great layer of ice for the snow to fall on allowing us to suffer with the cold for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Not the most profound image but this is from TSA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Thanks StormChazer for the maps. Currently I would say the NWS Tulsa map above is the most likely scenario for those of us in NW AR based on current model runs. As most of us have heard before cold, shallow air typically has a very difficult time oozing through the Ozark and Boston Mountains. This begins pretty much at the Benton/Washington County line in Arkansas and struggles to push south of there. The models seem to depict that pretty well with the surface temp projections. I recall previous ice/sleet storms where portions of far NW Benton Co (Gravette) are snow while a few miles SE is sleet. Not sure if any of that is helpful. Unfortunately I’m not super knowledgeable on the 850mb piece of things that JoMo has mentioned a few times so I can’t speak to that part too much. The 18z maps above are marginally better than the GFS was. Looks like there will be a very sharp cutoff for some of us. Those of you in SW MO and Tulsa/north are probably in the sweet spot for more snow accumulations. Let’s hold out hope the 00z runs shift back SE a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Being in Fayetteville I have to say "yuck" to current trends. lol Thankfully its only Sunday so hopefully that freezing rain line nudges further south away from me in the coming days. (sorry for you guys further south though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Don't know how much of what we may get over my way but as long as it is the frozen variety I is happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 It appears that the 00z NAM is coming in further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 00z NAM continues the trend of pushing the 850 MB front farther NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z NAM continues the trend of pushing the 850 MB front farther NW. Yep... continues to look icier and dicier. Hate to waste this moisture on sleet, but that is a much better outcome than freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Wx 24/7 said: Yep... continues to look icier and dicier. Hate to waste this moisture on sleet, but that is a much better outcome than freezing rain. If it keeps warming, it might be freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, The Waterboy said: Not sure if any of that is helpful. Unfortunately I’m not super knowledgeable on the 850mb piece of things that JoMo has mentioned a few times so I can’t speak to that part too much. Go to Pivotalweather, then pick the NAM model, Zoom into Central US. Then look under "Upper Air: Height/Wind/Temperature". After that, go under "Temperature and Wind" Go to "850 mb, Temperature, Height, Wind" The blue/green line is basically where the 850 MB freezing line is. Anything north (and west) of that is going to be snow in this particular scenario because all the other levels of the atmosphere are below freezing. anything SE of that line will be sleet/freezing rain/rain depending on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 31 minutes ago, JoMo said: If it keeps warming, it might be freezing rain. It can stop warming any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 00z RGEM moved a bit farther NW as well, especially in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Wx 24/7 said: It can stop warming any time. THIS! My feelings exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The current solutions are far from locked in. Jog back SE in the next 24 hours wouldn't surprise me. Just my opinion. Seen this dog and pony show too many times. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 31 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: The current solutions are far from locked in. Jog back SE in the next 24 hours wouldn't surprise me. Just my opinion. Seen this dog and pony show too many times. I’ve also seen it continue to trend NW right up until it starts. The trend is not good for any of us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, MUWX said: I’ve also seen it continue to trend NW right up until it starts. The trend is not good for any of us right now. That's usually with strengthening systems though, not dying ones. 00z GFS looks to be pretty stable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 You would think as long as I’ve been watching models, I should’ve known NOT to fall for some of those “Big numbers” that were being thrown out. I’m going with 22 with sleet and freezing rain for Tulsa with maybe 2 inches of snow on top. #IHateThisHobby Tell me when the NW trend stops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, ouamber said: You would think as long as I’ve been watching models, I should’ve known NOT to fall for some of those “Big numbers” that were being thrown out. I’m going with 22 with sleet and freezing rain for Tulsa with maybe 2 inches of snow on top. #IHateThisHobby Tell me when the NW trend stops! I feel your pain. Its why I was so cynical on this last system that came thru earlier in the month. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Icon has probably been the most consistent out of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 All hope is not lost. We still have the Ukie painting out a widespread 6-8 across this entire area. This is probably a useless model tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: All hope is not lost. We still have the Ukie painting out a widespread 6-8 across this entire area. This is probably a useless model tho. Pretty sure UKMET combines all frozen precip as "snow" on those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 00z Euro was a nudge north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 06z NAM continued going north, 06z GFS went farther SE. Winter Storm Watches are now in effect for some areas. Springfield: " It is worth mentioning that the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index indicates a potential for an anomalous snowfall, and the Shift of Tails indicates that at least 50 of the ECMWF ensemble members are forecasting a higher-end snow. Again, the warm nose will be a big determining factor." Looks like Wichita is forecasting 6-12" or so of snow. Tulsa will issue a Winter Storm Watch in 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The trends on the 06z NAM are definitely concerning. 06z EURO also ramps up the ice, but keeps the heavy snow, too. I don't want the freezing rain. Ugh. The GFS continues to hold serve. I hope that it is right, but that warm nose is way too pesky for my liking. I am glad I cut some limbs and stocked up on supplies yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The NAM is the outlier for now and is out on the later end of its range still. GFS/Canadian have so far been the most consistent models and have also been the coldest. Euro somewhere in the middle. That said, can’t ignore the number of times warm noses have been underestimated at this range. We’ll see what 12z brings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS nudged SE, 06Z Euro eeevveeeer so slightly nudged SE as well. NAM still doing it’s North trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, StormChazer said: GFS nudged SE, 06Z Euro eeevveeeer so slightly nudged SE as well. NAM still doing it’s North trend. 06z RDPS also nudged eeeeveeeer so slightly SE. 12z NAM out to 12 now. Today is the day we really want to start seeing things change back to our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 IIRC was it last February's system the NAM did terribly on? I remember one winter event where every other model did well on forecast location and amounts but the NAM was pretty much out to lunch doing its own thing the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z NAM looks a tick or two SE out to 51. Much more snow in Kansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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