StormChazer Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Tulsa NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said: Anyone else still wondering what happens to totally mess this up? The thing that would mess it up for me would be the 850 MB temps don't cool enough before the bulk of the precip moves out, which would result in a giant sleet storm instead of snow. Arkansas will be probably having this problem for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: Tulsa NWS That escalated quickly. Was just 1-2" for most of the area yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 A definite shift north on the 12Z Euro. The 6Z was right on the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 12z Euro pretty much caved to the GFS and went back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I'll take a double order of Euro, pls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Sharp cutoff in AR, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Sharp cutoff in AR, though. Going to highly depend on where the 850mb front sets up at which will determine precip type. Nail biter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Only major disagreement I see in the models, at this point, is the debate of an ice storm for DFW. Here are the 10:1 snow ratios for the 3 major models. Other than the Canadian(which the run before looked similar to these), which is toned down some this run, they look strikingly similar. Euro GFS Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Only major disagreement I see in the models, at this point, is the debate of an ice storm for DFW. Here are the 10:1 snow ratios for the 3 major models. Other than the Canadian(which the run before looked similar to these), which is toned down some this run, they look strikingly similar. Euro GFS Canadian Kuchera may be better where the cold air is deepest (eg S KS, WC into C MO, and NW OK). There, SLRs could be 15:1, similar to what we had out here on New Year's Day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The last hour of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 The 850 MB front keeps getting farther NW. Hoping that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Lovely, unless its depicting a slower storm system, its looking like the latest NAM is calling for more ice than snow. Granted its just coming into range. Note its valid Thurs morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I still think a sleet or ice storm is the most likely outcome for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Ironically the 12Z GFS Snow Depth parameter is going bonkers. Depicts a secondary system moving in over the weekend. This reminds me of the 2010 & 2011 winters when we had back to back systems at the end of January going into February. The 10:1 and Kuchera parameters are depicting the I-44 corridor getting slammed with nearly two feet in spots if this holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Definitely not trending in our favor to stay out of an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Ironically the 18Z GFS Snow Depth parameter is going bonkers. Depicts a secondary system moving in over the weekend. This reminds me of the 2010 & 2011 winters when we had back to back systems at the end of January going into February. The 10:1 and Kuchera parameters are depicting the I-44 corridor getting slammed with nearly two feet in spots if this holds. The 18z GFS hasn’t run yet. That’s from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I got it mixed up with that 18z NAM run I posted about. The GFS is however coming thru now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Gfs is gonna a huge sleet storm for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: Gfs is gonna a huge sleet storm for most of us Wagons Northwest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, JoMo said: Wagons Northwest! Yep. If im betting, I’d say most of us get an ice storm. Long ways to go though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, MUWX said: Gfs is gonna have a huge sleet storm for most of us Yeah upon further investigation I am thinking that's also why the Snow Depth parameter is going nuts. Its not taking into account how much of that could likely be sleet. Quote In that regard, it can be more useful for estimating the ground accumulation at the end of a snowstorm than our 10:1 and Kuchera snowfall products. Still, this benefit is offset by the substantial pitfalls of using very imprecise SLRs and typically treating sleet as snow. https://home.pivotalweather.com/guides/snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Model jerking, guys. This is far from locked in. More than likely we all get a bit of everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Hr 84 of the RDPS So expect the 00Z Canadian to look more like the 12Z Euro than the 18Z GFS. But like Mo said above, don't get so fixated on the run to run model outputs. Save that for once we are within 48 hours of the main event, that's when we will start to see the real picture in the atmosphere, to determined precip types. And if I'm being totally honest, when it comes to a mixed bag like this, sometimes, it comes down to real time reports before you truly know what your dominant precip type is going to be. Don't forget, with a storm like this, if you change over to snow an hour or 2 earlier than the models predict, BOOM, you get a dumping. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 Springfield with a good overview. Quote Broad overview: A series of shortwaves will lead to widespread precipitation as much colder air surges into the area, causing precipitation to change over to snow and/or a wintry mix from north to south late Tuesday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, an elevated warm layer is expected as an 850mb trough sets up across the area, adding complexity to the precipitation type forecast mainly along and south of I-44. Precip should switch over to all snow across much or all of the area by Wednesday night. The bulk of the precip exits the area on Thursday, but light snow may linger into Thursday night. Uncertainty: The pieces of energy that will come together for this system will start moving onshore in western North America tonight and Monday, but for now there is continued uncertainty in track, timing, and intensity of features. This leads to additional uncertainty in precipitation type, time of precipitation type changes, and precipitation amounts. Ideally, confidence will increase Monday. Current expectations: With uncertainty in mind, it remains most prudent to continue with probabilistic messaging at this time. North of I-44: Probabilities favor the warm layer aloft to stay along/south of I-44, which should result in a quicker transition from rain to snow in this area. Transition looks to start prior to midnight late Tuesday evening, reaching I-44 late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Again, timing may shift. NBM probability of >=6" of snow is 50-60%, with 40-50% probability of >=8" across portions of central MO. On the lower end, >=4" of snow is 60-80%. South of I-44: Precipitation is currently forecast to change from all rain to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, then to all snow from northwest to southeast Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. The change looks fairly gradual until an 850mb low moves southeast of the area in the evening. Timing may shift, but current probabilities favor most of this area seeing all snow by late Wednesday evening, with far south-central MO possibly seeing some sleet mixed in into Wednesday night. As for amounts, while NBM probabilities show >=6" at generally less than 30%, >=4" probability is 50-60% (a little lower across far south-central MO), and >=2" is 60-80%. NBM confines higher freezing rain accumulation probabilities to south-central MO with 40-50% probability of >= 0.1". The NBM has near-zero probabilities of >=0.25" ice, but we will have to keep an eye on these potentials as they do exist but are very difficult to forecast this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 Well, the Chiefs lost, so hopefully the snowfall pans out to cheer me up, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Any good news from the 18z Euro? I’m almost afraid to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Any good news from the 18z Euro? I’m almost afraid to ask. This is at 6:00AM Thursday and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I have a bad feeling about I-44 particularly in OK with this one. Setup screams either a big sleet event with snow/ZR mixed in, or a nasty ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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