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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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I know we can't get fixated on the numbers.....but the trend with all the models is that this has the potential to be an EXTREMELY impactful winter storm with cold air behind it.

Do you know what 4-5 inches of sleet does to a city when it takes 3-4 days to melt? I lived in DFW in 2013 during the "Cobblestone Ice' event. It dropped 5 inches of sleet on us....the roads become a virtual ice skating rink the first day. But then, as cars drive on it, they naturally melt "potholes" into the thick sheet of sleet, and then refreezes, which causes your car to slide in and out of these bumps and holes, making driving quite literally impossible, no matter the car.

Now that I'm done overhyping this and acting like it's the end of the world. Let's come back down to reality. That was an insanely rare event, and the models have so much trouble with the thickness of cold air, that this could(hopefully) just be a quick transition to snow from some freezing rain and sleet. But we have to take the trends seriously, it's only 4 days out now.

Weenie rant over.

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I could be wrong but I question the GFS precip maps.  We will have some warm air advection over the top but I find it hard to believe locations with surface temps in the mid teens to low 20’s have heavy sleet.  I don’t recall ever seeing that before.  The Euro/CMC colder, more snow solution seems to be more plausible.  We shall see…

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8 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

I could be wrong but I question the GFS precip maps.  We will have some warm air advection over the top but I find it hard to believe locations with surface temps in the mid teens to low 20’s have heavy sleet.  I don’t recall ever seeing that before.  The Euro/CMC colder, more snow solution seems to be more plausible.  We shall see…

On GFS, 850's are toasty until the 850 mb low passes through.

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Just now, stormdragonwx said:

Fingers crossed its more ice and less snow. Funny thing is I've been lucky as I missed the 2007 event in E OK since I lived in NWA at the time and then I missed the big 2009 event in NWA as I had just moved to Tulsa the previous fall. lol

Wait what? You want Ice instead of snow?

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17 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I didn’t love the 00Z run of the euro last night.

 

However, the 06Z euro shows a notable shift back to the north again. 
 

So we’ll see if the 12Z follows suit.

Good to hear the 06z was better.  The 00 Euro was definitely the outlier so far.  The trend still continues for a major event in our area.  

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23 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Good to hear the 06z was better.  The 00 Euro was definitely the outlier so far.  The trend still continues for a major event in our area.  


This is as far out at the 6Z goes, but you can clearly see where the intense band of snow is setting up.

image.thumb.png.c7b10b7bb406d9948da213f90a854040.png
 

I can run the 06Z Euro CONTROL run out further, which shows you where that heavy snow sets up. Again, you can’t trust the 06Z and 18Z runs of the euro as much as their 12Z and 0Z counterparts, as they use outdated upper air data, but they can still sniff out a trend sometimes.

image.thumb.png.729574458e286d5500c0548333ce664c.png

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That initial band now showing up on the 12z NAM across Missouri/Kansas drops some decent amounts of snow. It's 850 MB front induced which currently sets up shop around Joplin this run while lifting slowly north. 

EDIT: Same story with the 12z RGEM but the 850 front sets up farther south near the AR/MO border. 

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1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Anyone else still wondering what happens to totally mess this up? :D:D

Admittedly, I am. But here in southern Kansas, what will mess it up is if the high pressure comes in and shoves everything farther south...which has been the trend in the last 24 hours, at least in the deterministic models. The ensembles still hold on to the baroclinic zone farther north, on average. 

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