JoMo Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Still a variety of solutions on the GFS Ensemble members but there's a lot more QPF at play this run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 12z Euro with the big snow hit to Arkansas and S MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Well I’m in between the high totals of the GFS and the EURO, so if they can meet in the middle I’m set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Euro is more positive tilt and flatter with the wave than the other models. Hence the further southeast solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 @StormChazergot the hookup on Euro maps? I’m out with the wife at a Sam’s Club that doubles as a zoo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: @StormChazergot the hookup on Euro maps? I’m out with the wife at a Sam’s Club that doubles as a zoo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 18z Icon even colder than the 12z run. Heaviest QPF shifted a bit SE into Central/SE AR but snow line also pushed SE. Joplin with a foot at hr120 when the run ends. Tulsa between 7-10” and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I know we can't get fixated on the numbers.....but the trend with all the models is that this has the potential to be an EXTREMELY impactful winter storm with cold air behind it. Do you know what 4-5 inches of sleet does to a city when it takes 3-4 days to melt? I lived in DFW in 2013 during the "Cobblestone Ice' event. It dropped 5 inches of sleet on us....the roads become a virtual ice skating rink the first day. But then, as cars drive on it, they naturally melt "potholes" into the thick sheet of sleet, and then refreezes, which causes your car to slide in and out of these bumps and holes, making driving quite literally impossible, no matter the car. Now that I'm done overhyping this and acting like it's the end of the world. Let's come back down to reality. That was an insanely rare event, and the models have so much trouble with the thickness of cold air, that this could(hopefully) just be a quick transition to snow from some freezing rain and sleet. But we have to take the trends seriously, it's only 4 days out now. Weenie rant over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Here is the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I’d say 18z GFS is likely about the ceiling for this event. Would definitely be a major storm for much of this sub 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 26 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: I’d say 18z GFS is likely about the ceiling for this event. Would definitely be a major storm for much of this sub Now if it would hold steady and not pull a Nancy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I could be wrong but I question the GFS precip maps. We will have some warm air advection over the top but I find it hard to believe locations with surface temps in the mid teens to low 20’s have heavy sleet. I don’t recall ever seeing that before. The Euro/CMC colder, more snow solution seems to be more plausible. We shall see… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: I could be wrong but I question the GFS precip maps. We will have some warm air advection over the top but I find it hard to believe locations with surface temps in the mid teens to low 20’s have heavy sleet. I don’t recall ever seeing that before. The Euro/CMC colder, more snow solution seems to be more plausible. We shall see… On GFS, 850's are toasty until the 850 mb low passes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I'm thinking more of a sleet fest for us down here, Waterboy. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 44 minutes ago, JoMo said: On GFS, 850's are toasty until the 850 mb low passes through. I guess I should educate myself on 850 temps then! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Hour 90 of the 18Z Euro for what it’s worth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Hoping that second wave late Wed early Thurs is the bigger of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 This has been some impressive model agreement across the board…and for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The 00z Canadian is absolutely bonkers for pretty much all of us! The Kuchera snow maps are nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Local Springfield meteorologist, Ron Hearst, said the system has been partially sampled and that data was in tonight model run for what it’s worth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 We got a few days out still but fingers crossed its more snow and less ice. Funny thing is I've been lucky as I missed the 2007 event in E OK since I lived in NWA at the time and then I missed the big 2009 event in NWA as I had just moved to Tulsa the previous fall. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, stormdragonwx said: Fingers crossed its more ice and less snow. Funny thing is I've been lucky as I missed the 2007 event in E OK since I lived in NWA at the time and then I missed the big 2009 event in NWA as I had just moved to Tulsa the previous fall. lol Wait what? You want Ice instead of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Yeah I dunno what happened there. But I was hoping I could edit it before someone noticed. You ninja'd me lol now I probably jinxed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Yeah I dunno what happened there. But I was hoping I could edit it before someone noticed. You ninja'd me lol now I probably jinxed it. I was gonna say to each his own. Sleet can be pretty fun when you get a couple inches of it. Freezing rain however, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I didn’t love the 00Z run of the euro last night. However, the 06Z euro shows a notable shift back to the north again. So we’ll see if the 12Z follows suit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 17 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I didn’t love the 00Z run of the euro last night. However, the 06Z euro shows a notable shift back to the north again. So we’ll see if the 12Z follows suit. Good to hear the 06z was better. The 00 Euro was definitely the outlier so far. The trend still continues for a major event in our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 23 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Good to hear the 06z was better. The 00 Euro was definitely the outlier so far. The trend still continues for a major event in our area. This is as far out at the 6Z goes, but you can clearly see where the intense band of snow is setting up. I can run the 06Z Euro CONTROL run out further, which shows you where that heavy snow sets up. Again, you can’t trust the 06Z and 18Z runs of the euro as much as their 12Z and 0Z counterparts, as they use outdated upper air data, but they can still sniff out a trend sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Anyone else still wondering what happens to totally mess this up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 That initial band now showing up on the 12z NAM across Missouri/Kansas drops some decent amounts of snow. It's 850 MB front induced which currently sets up shop around Joplin this run while lifting slowly north. EDIT: Same story with the 12z RGEM but the 850 front sets up farther south near the AR/MO border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said: Anyone else still wondering what happens to totally mess this up? Admittedly, I am. But here in southern Kansas, what will mess it up is if the high pressure comes in and shoves everything farther south...which has been the trend in the last 24 hours, at least in the deterministic models. The ensembles still hold on to the baroclinic zone farther north, on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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