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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

00z GFS shifted south some.  More snow than ice for the most part.  Still looks a bit wonky about hr 150 but nothing to worry about for now.  The trend was good.  

Trend has been for a faster moving Arctic front and a weaker wave. 

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10 hours ago, JoMo said:

The long range still looks to feature a -EPO through mid-Feb so the cold air feed should be good to go. Time for the 00z models. 

00z ICON has a massive ice storm followed by a massive snowstorm for my neck of the woods. 

Is there is a site that you are using showing these ice outputs or are you just extrapolating? Weatherbell only shows me snow. Didn't know if another site showed ice. 

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2 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Is there is a site that you are using showing these ice outputs or are you just extrapolating? Weatherbell only shows me snow. Didn't know if another site showed ice. 

Nope, just snow/rain is showing, but you can check precip maps + temp maps to see what falls when it's below freezing. 

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14 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Well, that Euro run stunk for most of our area....meh! Seems like it just doesn't get cold enough. I don't see much agreement with any of the surface features between the models either. When will this be sampled? 

 

I'm not sure...These systems that pull pacific moisture in from the SW are harder to predict due to the sparse sampling system in place down there.. By the time we can sample it, it's already on our doorstep. But maybe someone with more knowledge than me can enlighten us!

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Just looking at the models & their ensembles from this morning, it looks like the general theme is for the cold front to stall somewhere in northern or central Oklahoma during the day Tuesday, with precip developing out ahead of an upper air disturbance Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. 

If I were to forecast this, I would hedge the front/baroclinic zone and associated precip farther south, due to the dense nature of the colder air. Still though, think this is a good shot for all of us to see some much needed moisture and snowfall, but the bigger story, to me, is the colder air that will come down on the backside of this. Temps will likely be pretty cold for four or five days after the storm passes by. 

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3 hours ago, ouamber said:

Well, that Euro run stunk for most of our area....meh! Seems like it just doesn't get cold enough. I don't see much agreement with any of the surface features between the models either. When will this be sampled? 

Tues/Wed

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It’s a precarious setup as far as the precip amounts go. Cold air seems all but guaranteed for most, but getting the precipitation far enough north and west is all coming down to how quickly the trough can dig and sharpen to our west and become more neutral tilt as opposed to the more positive tilt models had been showing. Also at play are multiple individual short waves rounding the base of the trough that may lead to multiple rounds. Right now models are kind of bouncing around on how these short waves interact. To be expected at this range. But also expect more changes as we get closer. This one has room to dig even more and become a truly significant storm, but it could also head the other direction and most of the precipitation stays south of the cold air and we just get some very cold temps. I’m not buying any individual solution right now.

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Normally I make fun of the people who rush out and buy ingredients for french toast (milk, eggs, and bread), but I am going to be getting my preparations done this weekend. If at worst, I have extra batteries, gasoline, and wood for my heat... that is better than the opposing possibilities. Lack of supply in a variety of different areas exacerbates this problem. I continue to worry about that pesky warm nose and the ice potential. 

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The last couple of runs of the Canadian push the cold air in much quicker.  
12z yesterday at hour 132:

Tulsa -37

Joplin - 33

Bentonville -38 

12z run today at hour the same time (hour 108) 

Tulsa - 26

Joplin - 23 

Bentonville - 27

12z GFS today at 108 - 

Tulsa - 20

Joplin- 21

Bentonville - 29

Also, For what it’s worth the 12z Icon is quicker with the cold air too with temps even colder than both the GFS and CMC.  

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