JoMo Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 00z GFS shifted south some. More snow than ice for the most part. Still looks a bit wonky about hr 150 but nothing to worry about for now. The trend was good. Trend has been for a faster moving Arctic front and a weaker wave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Brutally cold gfs run for mid missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 00z Euro continued the farther south with everything trend. Decent snows for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 10 hours ago, JoMo said: The long range still looks to feature a -EPO through mid-Feb so the cold air feed should be good to go. Time for the 00z models. 00z ICON has a massive ice storm followed by a massive snowstorm for my neck of the woods. Is there is a site that you are using showing these ice outputs or are you just extrapolating? Weatherbell only shows me snow. Didn't know if another site showed ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said: Is there is a site that you are using showing these ice outputs or are you just extrapolating? Weatherbell only shows me snow. Didn't know if another site showed ice. I don't believe there is one. You have to look at the soundings to extrapolate the precip type from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 06z and 12z GFS runs both have brutal cold that rivals last year’s -15 here in NW AR. Temps behind the cold front drop rapidly as precip is moving in. I would think that would limit fz rain/sleet with a fairly quick transition to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I don't believe there is one. You have to look at the soundings to extrapolate the precip type from there. That's what I thought. Just wanted to double check. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said: Is there is a site that you are using showing these ice outputs or are you just extrapolating? Weatherbell only shows me snow. Didn't know if another site showed ice. Nope, just snow/rain is showing, but you can check precip maps + temp maps to see what falls when it's below freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Well, that Euro run stunk for most of our area....meh! Seems like it just doesn't get cold enough. I don't see much agreement with any of the surface features between the models either. When will this be sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, ouamber said: Well, that Euro run stunk for most of our area....meh! Seems like it just doesn't get cold enough. I don't see much agreement with any of the surface features between the models either. When will this be sampled? I'm not sure...These systems that pull pacific moisture in from the SW are harder to predict due to the sparse sampling system in place down there.. By the time we can sample it, it's already on our doorstep. But maybe someone with more knowledge than me can enlighten us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just looking at the models & their ensembles from this morning, it looks like the general theme is for the cold front to stall somewhere in northern or central Oklahoma during the day Tuesday, with precip developing out ahead of an upper air disturbance Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. If I were to forecast this, I would hedge the front/baroclinic zone and associated precip farther south, due to the dense nature of the colder air. Still though, think this is a good shot for all of us to see some much needed moisture and snowfall, but the bigger story, to me, is the colder air that will come down on the backside of this. Temps will likely be pretty cold for four or five days after the storm passes by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 hours ago, ouamber said: Well, that Euro run stunk for most of our area....meh! Seems like it just doesn't get cold enough. I don't see much agreement with any of the surface features between the models either. When will this be sampled? Tues/Wed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 11 degrees and snow would be some decent rates on the 18z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 00Z GFS seems to be coming in slightly colder to my untrained eye. Didn't it handle that airmass from last February better than the Euro and GEM? 00z GEM coming in colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Pouring the snow back in my hometown of south jersey! Watching some live webcams along the ocean, full on jealous mode haha. Looks like my Moms place will get around a foot or so. Man if we got a storm that big here this place would shut down lol. Hopefully next week brings something who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Definite shift south on the Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12z ICON maps haven’t all loaded on TropicalTidbits yet but it looks like a HUGE amount of precip with temps in the teens and 20’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 All Good trends overnight with the three major players. Ice storm is definitely looming over the area. North Texas gets hammered as well. Time to see what the afternoon runs show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, StormChazer said: All Good trends overnight with the three major players. Ice storm is definitely looming over the area. North Texas gets hammered as well. Time to see what the afternoon runs show! Do you have the 06 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Do you have the 06 Euro? This is as far out as it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Not a great sounding reader, but man, the icon is scary. Hopefully it’s sleet, but if it’s ice, that’s close to 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 GFS is thrashing Tulsa with an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Full blown winter storm. 4 inches of sleet followed by super cold temps? Roads would be impassable for days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 It’s a precarious setup as far as the precip amounts go. Cold air seems all but guaranteed for most, but getting the precipitation far enough north and west is all coming down to how quickly the trough can dig and sharpen to our west and become more neutral tilt as opposed to the more positive tilt models had been showing. Also at play are multiple individual short waves rounding the base of the trough that may lead to multiple rounds. Right now models are kind of bouncing around on how these short waves interact. To be expected at this range. But also expect more changes as we get closer. This one has room to dig even more and become a truly significant storm, but it could also head the other direction and most of the precipitation stays south of the cold air and we just get some very cold temps. I’m not buying any individual solution right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Normally I make fun of the people who rush out and buy ingredients for french toast (milk, eggs, and bread), but I am going to be getting my preparations done this weekend. If at worst, I have extra batteries, gasoline, and wood for my heat... that is better than the opposing possibilities. Lack of supply in a variety of different areas exacerbates this problem. I continue to worry about that pesky warm nose and the ice potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Got to say I am loving the latest run of the Canadian. Looks like it has more snow unlike the icy GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Canadian is a pretty solid sleet/ice storm for southern Missouri, followed by a pretty solid snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Canadian traditionally has a cold bias if I am not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 That’s a LOT of ice, but even so, HOLY CRAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The last couple of runs of the Canadian push the cold air in much quicker. 12z yesterday at hour 132: Tulsa -37 Joplin - 33 Bentonville -38 12z run today at hour the same time (hour 108) Tulsa - 26 Joplin - 23 Bentonville - 27 12z GFS today at 108 - Tulsa - 20 Joplin- 21 Bentonville - 29 Also, For what it’s worth the 12z Icon is quicker with the cold air too with temps even colder than both the GFS and CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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