rockchalk83 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The storm system sliding down the Front Range of the Rockies had dumped 12-20" in a narrow band from west central Kansas into northeast Colorado. Euro & GFS show the possibility of snow showers in OK tomorrow into Thursday, not much accumulation though. Looking farther abroad, the models seem to be honing in on a busy period (anything would be considered "busy" after the winter we've had so far) beginning around next Monday. At least one storm shown on the main 12z model suite. Perhaps JoMo or some of the others can elaborate on the broader strokes behind the pattern change, but it looked to me that the MJO gets into phase 8 as the AO trends negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 hours ago, rockchalk83 said: The storm system sliding down the Front Range of the Rockies had dumped 12-20" in a narrow band from west central Kansas into northeast Colorado. Euro & GFS show the possibility of snow showers in OK tomorrow into Thursday, not much accumulation though. Looking farther abroad, the models seem to be honing in on a busy period (anything would be considered "busy" after the winter we've had so far) beginning around next Monday. At least one storm shown on the main 12z model suite. Perhaps JoMo or some of the others can elaborate on the broader strokes behind the pattern change, but it looked to me that the MJO gets into phase 8 as the AO trends negative. That western Kansas band is nightmare fuel. A 5-10 mile wide band got hammered. I think one location for 27 inches, which is almost a state record. Outside of that bad, got substantially less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 hours ago, rockchalk83 said: The storm system sliding down the Front Range of the Rockies had dumped 12-20" in a narrow band from west central Kansas into northeast Colorado. Euro & GFS show the possibility of snow showers in OK tomorrow into Thursday, not much accumulation though. Looking farther abroad, the models seem to be honing in on a busy period (anything would be considered "busy" after the winter we've had so far) beginning around next Monday. At least one storm shown on the main 12z model suite. Perhaps JoMo or some of the others can elaborate on the broader strokes behind the pattern change, but it looked to me that the MJO gets into phase 8 as the AO trends negative. Yeah, looks like some chances for flurries/snow showers wed night/thurs and then maybe a couple of bigger storms the first week of Feb, location uncertain at this time though. After that, things get kind of questionable as the ensembles vary on what happens next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Some big ice storms showing up on the 00z GFS and 00z Euro tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Something may be brewing a week out. Euro gives us a pretty intense winter storm. Freezing rain, sleet and snow. GFS similar, but been bouncing around on location. It’s one to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I think pretty much everyone here would be ok with the 12z Canadian. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, MUWX said: I think pretty much everyone here would be ok with the 12z Canadian. Yeah. I think I could deal with that. I mean it only gives me a foot but you can't have everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, MUWX said: I think pretty much everyone here would be ok with the 12z Canadian. I am not happy with my 14.9" of snow forecast. Mainly because it is the Canadian. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12Z Euro run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12z Euro looks very interesting. Close to something big around the same time frame as the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Still a week out and could go horribly wrong, so don't get your hopes up too much, lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Feels like it's been forever since I've been on here. Beyond boring pattern here in ICT lately. At least western ks was able to get some excitement in spots as mentioned above. However, it looks like there is finally something meaningful to watch over the next week. Most models showing at least some type of storm system crossing the southern plains as talked about above. I like that this is backed up by what looks to be the AO dipping to negative or at least neutral around this time. Along with a pattern change from northwest to southwest flow. Details will come, but I think someone on this board gets some meaningful winter precip a week or so from now. Here's to hoping! Regardless of moisture type, the drought in the southern plains continues to expand north and east so I'll take any meaningful moisture we can get! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 SGF: Quote Beyond Monday, much uncertainty exists with sensible weather and potential impacts. Ensembles show considerable spreads in both temperatures and precipitation amounts, thus confidence is very low beyond Monday. Overall signals though do indicate a more active period with the potential for some impactful weather, However details are very much up in the air. As an example of the spread can be seen in NBM temperature ranges that by Wednesday have a 20 degree range for highs (37 to 57). GEFS plumes of QPF also showing a large spread in solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 18z GFS probably going to go pretty nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, JoMo said: 18z GFS probably going to go pretty nuts. Yes it did. Wow. Huge fz rain amounts in AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Hammers North and Central Arkansas/ Eastern Oklahoma. That would be a crippling ice storm. Edit: Very cold air coming in behind that storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I knew not to expect much to begin with but I'm thinking tonight's system is gonna be a bust for E OK and W AR. Too much dry air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, stormdragonwx said: I knew not to expect much to begin with but I'm thinking tonight's system is gonna be a bust for E OK and W AR. Too much dry air. Weren't flurries just expected? Dusting at most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 With the way its looking, I will be surprised to see that much. Dry air intrusion is really brutal. Saw dewpoints in the teens around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Intense ice storm on the 12Z Canadian. Last night's Euro backed off on the snow but increased ice outputs(frz rain and sleet) for our area. This morning and the noon run of the GFS pushes the storm to the north and leaves all of us relatively high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Intense ice storm on the 12Z Canadian. Last night's Euro backed off on the snow but increased ice outputs(frz rain and sleet) for our area. This morning and the noon run of the GFS pushes the storm to the north and leaves all of us relatively high and dry. Would think that unless the baroclinic zone stops, that most of the region would get in on some form of wintry precip. The Canadian has mirrored the Euro to some extent with two waves of precip along a stationary front. I'm already living and dying by the models in the NE forum (yes, I'm a degenerate), Euro runs in an hour...let's see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12Z Euro CONTROL run, for those who want to needlessly get their hopes up and enjoy seeing outlandish snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The actual Euro run, just to come down to earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 26 minutes ago, StormChazer said: The actual Euro run, just to come down to earth. Do you have the ice maps? I would think there is some decent ice totals on the south side of the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 TSA on next week. "Deep cyclonic flow is expected to develop over the western 2/3rds of the CONUS toward the middle of next week. Another arctic air invasion is expected as this occurs as surface high pressure, with origins near the Yukon and Northwest Territory, comes clear down into the northern CONUS. The concomitant arctic front will likely precede the passage of the upper wave axis, leading to a plethora of potential issues. Along/ahead of the front, some data is painting an axis of locally heavy rainfall which could be over far eastern OK into western AR or just slightly to the east. Then, as the cold air spills south with the front, a wintry mix is expected with ice, sleet and snow accums possible. The GFS remains on the drier side overall regarding the amount of precip back in the cold air vs the ECMWF. Thus, the details are likely to change and will continue to be refined in the coming days. Stay tuned." Lacy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, MUWX said: Do you have the ice maps? I would think there is some decent ice totals on the south side of the heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This overall setup screams a major ice storm for someone to me. Too soon to know just where that will be. The only hope would be that it would wind up being just cool enough a bit closer so it could be more sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 The long range still looks to feature a -EPO through mid-Feb so the cold air feed should be good to go. Time for the 00z models. 00z ICON has a massive ice storm followed by a massive snowstorm for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 00z GFS shifted south some. More snow than ice for the most part. Still looks a bit wonky about hr 150 but nothing to worry about for now. The trend was good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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