RocketWX Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 I hadn't even looked past this event yet. To think there could be another storm on the heels of this one to track would be crazy. Based on the 3 images you posted there definitely looks to be some good model agreement at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 Ever so small shifts south in the freezing line. So close, yet so far from getting snow. 00z GFS is going to be nuts with multiple winter storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, JoMo said: Ever so small shifts south in the freezing line. So close, yet so far from getting snow. 00z GFS is going to be nuts with multiple winter storms. Yeah, HRRR keeps creeping south giving me more and more sleet here north of Tulsa tomorrow morning, will be interesting to see what happens. Some of those heavier storms could throw sleet down before it’s even freezing, something to watch. As for the GFS next week. Sheesh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 TSA on next week. "The upper pattern toward the middle to latter part of the week could bring a messy winter weather episode to the region. Large positive tilt upper trough in the West allows a more shallow arctic airmass to ooze south down the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. Lift and moisture then overrun this cold air Wednesday into Thursday, with some decent ice and sleet possible depending on where the surface freezing line lies and the thermal profile shakes out aloft. The western trough then ejects into the Plains Thursday with a mixed bag of precip types changing to all snow and possibly heavy somewhere. Stay tuned as these details will continue to be refined in the coming days. There is potential for this storm to be pretty impactful for the latter half of next week." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Agree that most models are in decent agreement that there is a system that bears watching next week and it looks to be very impactful somewhere in the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 This system was a bust for OK. Cold air was ahead of models and limited severe weather to the Red River area, one tornado warning in Stephens County. I had some freezing rain near Ralston OK. I found a pretty good area of freezing rain in Lenapah and then there was sleet and snow very light near South Coffeyville. No where did I find warning criteria weather. Winds suck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Well I'd be lying if I wasn't a bit let down by this snow storm based the potential it had. The 00Z models all showed very high snow totals. NWS and local meteorologists all upped snow totals. However, the initial precip moved in quick and was very heavy, but all sleet. Had thundersleet. The changeover to snow didn't happen until 5am or so, and with the storm moving at a pretty good clip, just didn't get heavy enough snowfall rates to reach the predicted totals. All forecasts, ranged from 6-10". All reports I've seen range from 4-5.5" Decent, but short of what most expected here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Yeah this system was pretty much meh across the board IMO. Very interested to see how next weeks system evolves. Hopefully it evolves into more snow than ice like before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 “Confidence is high in troughing developing through the western CONUS early next week and also with the aforementioned seasonably strong cold front. Additionally, the corridor of deep moisture aligned along the frontal zone is forecast to largely remain in place and possibly increase in magnitude. A likely scenario is one or more lead shortwave troughs preceding the primary trough axis ahead of its ejection across the central CONUS mid to late week. The combination of multiple periods of lift tapping deep moisture and lifting it atop a cold airmass is likely to lead to a wintry mix across the region Wednesday through Thursday. Additionally, the pattern is typical for a strong warm layer to develop atop the cold pool leading to all precip types as precip expands northward. Signals in deterministic data at this range also support impressive precip rates with convective elements already being modeled will north into the cold air. The potential for impactful snow, sleet, and ice accumulation continues to increase. Widely varying and frequently updated modeled winter weather totals will likely be shown over the coming days. Remember to identify a trusted source of weather information to monitor forecast trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Major disagreements between the models on precip amounts for the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, especially for TX/OK. This one seems to have a lot less agreement among the models than the past few systems from this range. I think the goalposts are still basically anywhere between mainly dry cold front to major winter storm for these areas. Further east it seems the precipitation amounts are a little less sensitive to the trough orientation so I’d be feeling better sitting in AR and MO. Cold air is definitely not in question at the surface but the warm nose aloft seems especially strong this go around. Looks like mainly sleet and/or freezing rain for those that do see precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 NAM starting to come into range. Obviously there’s no dispute here on a winter storm, more just the location and intensity. Because this is looking like a prolonged event, I think the NAM is going to show us some insanely high precip amounts(not like that’s a shock). But will tone it down. At the same time I expect some(not all) of the global models to uptick their amounts some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Quite the ice or sleet storm for N. ARK and SE MO on Wednesday/Thursday depending on which model you believe (if you believe either one, lol). GFS is the sleet storm with freezing rain further south and Euro is the ice producer. Neither one shows quite as much precip further north where snow/sleet would be more likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 4 hours ago, Ozarkwx said: Quite the ice or sleet storm for N. ARK and SE MO on Wednesday/Thursday depending on which model you believe (if you believe either one, lol). GFS is the sleet storm with freezing rain further south and Euro is the ice producer. Neither one shows quite as much precip further north where snow/sleet would be more likely. Wow! 3.4" sleet and 1" freezing rain ? I know it's not set in stone but I hope the snow line transitions farther south . The road department snow removal doesn't get in a hurry to do our road when it snows. So with that much ice n sleet I wouldn't be able to leave my house for several days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Ugh yeah guess my time is up. Probably getting an ice storm in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Thoughts today from NWS TULSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 542 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 221 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 The forecast becomes increasingly complex as we move into Monday and especially during the Wednesday/Thursday time-frame. From the potential of severe storms Monday night into Tuesday morning to a wintry mess mid-week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to bubble up early Monday evening across southeast Oklahoma in advance of a cold front that is set to move through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. In addition to the lift provided by the frontal boundary, a weakening disturbance in the developing southwesterly flow aloft will provide additional lift. There will be adequate instability and shear for some of the storms to become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern. However, there is a low potential for a tornado if a storm can remain surface based in the vicinity of the cold front. The greatest potential for severe storms will be across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas Monday night into Tuesday morning. In addition to the potential for severe weather, locally heavy rain will also be possible with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches during this time. Again, the heaviest rain will likely fall across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. 1 to 2 inches of rain will be fairly common across this area with local amounts around 4 inches possible. This could lead to flooding of low lying areas. Have opted to not issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time. However, later shifts will monitor closely and issue a watch if necessary. The showers and storms are forecast to come to an end Tuesday morning as the cold front exits the region. Temperatures will be noticeably colder Tuesday and especially Tuesday night. Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the teens and twenties Tuesday night/Wednesday morning setting the stage for the potential of a wintry mess mid-week. With the cold air in place at the surface, at least two rounds of wintry weather are expected to sweep across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday into Thursday. The southwesterly flow aloft will help provide the isentropic lift for the first round of wintry precipitation beginning Wednesday morning and continuing into Wednesday night. The second round will run from Thursday morning into Thursday evening as as mid-level shortwave ejects out of the Southwest US and across the area. During both of these periods all modes of winter weather will be possible. However, it is looking more likely that a good portion of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will see more sleet and freezing rain than snow. Significant impacts from the sleet and ice are looking possible. Precipitation types and amounts will continue to be refined as the event draws closer. Stay tuned. After a dry yet chilly Friday, another chance of a wintry mix will come Saturday into Saturday night as a another mid-level shortwave sweeps across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 These are not the kind of words you want to hear in an AFD. This came from this morning's in Tulsa: Quote Substantial sleet and freezing rain accumulations remain forecast across much of E OK / NW AR through Wednesday through Thursday. Travel impacts should be anticipated. Power grids are likely to be stressed with the corridor of heaviest freezing rain. Precip types and amounts will continued to be refined. However today will mark the warmest day to complete any early preparations in advance of the winter storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Winter Storm Watch for entire Tulsa CWA. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed wintry precipitation possible. Total sleet and snow accumulations of up to around one inch and ice accumulations of around one half of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas. * WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At least two rounds of wintry precipitation are expected Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. Sleet and freezing rain are expected to be the most impactful precipitation types with light snow also possible in some area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 It is awfully quiet in here. NWS Little Rock is on board with a Winter Storm Watch. Springfield seems to be less aggressive at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said: It is awfully quiet in here. NWS Little Rock is on board with a Winter Storm Watch. Springfield seems to be less aggressive at this point. I agree ! Arkansas has winter storm warning and southern Missouri doesn't even have an advisory ? Yet the Springfield - NWS and local forecasters discussions have said significant freezing rain up to .25 " and sleet will happen . Hmmmm? I guess most are not buying into it . Would you all in the know give us your take on this event? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Doramo said: I agree ! Arkansas has winter storm warning and southern Missouri doesn't even have an advisory ? Yet the Springfield - NWS and local forecasters discussions have said significant freezing rain up to .25 " and sleet will happen . Hmmmm? I guess most are not buying into it . Would you all in the know give us your take on this event? Thanks The biggest difference between Tulsa/northern Arkansas and Springfield, is the fact that the criteria for a WSW are very different. Springfield seems most aggressive with the cold air, reducing the amount of ice, but there’s not enough precip to get them to a WSW level event. Likely won’t see warnings and advisory’s go up until mid day tomorrow. Springfield could also be playing catch up, which wouldn’t really be a surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 It is quite interesting to me that the NAM has been a bit lighter in terms of precip totals, compared to its normal overzealous precip output. Additionally, it tends to favor more sleet... while the EURO has been very consistent with very intense freezing rain numbers. I hope that the NAM is right. The ice outputs from the EURO are alarming, especially in Northern Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I wasnt expecting it to be this cold, this fast. I am in Carthage this morning, and my car read 25 with a heavy glaze of ice on other cars in the parking lot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Sleet and freezing rain is going to be quite a mess. I am especially concerned about NW AR in the major cities of the area on up into far southern MO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I know its wishful thinking but its been spitting snow all day in NWA and yes its MUCH colder than what the models indicated. Hoping maybe the cold air will remain deep enough and avert an ice storm disaster here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said: Sleet and freezing rain is going to be quite a mess. I am especially concerned about NW AR in the major cities of the area on up into far southern MO. We're 30 miles north of Mt Home AR.... Things not looking good as far as freezing rain/sleet " Winter Storm Warning" * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MOZ105&warncounty=MOC153&firewxzone=MOZ105&local_place1=Dora MO&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=36.7768&lon=-92.2171 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just heard local KY3 met in Springfield say road temps are already in lower 20s so whatever falls is going to coat/glaze/stick to the roads immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbird12 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Occasional moderate-to-heavy sleet in Norman this morning. Heard a couple rumbles of thunder as well. It's not often that you get to hear thunder when it's 12 degrees outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, thunderbird12 said: Occasional moderate-to-heavy sleet in Norman this morning. Heard a couple rumbles of thunder as well. It's not often that you get to hear thunder when it's 12 degrees outside. Indeed! Lightning showing up on my RadarScope in the Bella Vista area as well. Hoping most of this band is sleet or snow. I wouldn't want freezing rain with this wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: Indeed! Lightning showing up on my RadarScope in the Bella Vista area as well. Hoping most of this band is sleet or snow. I wouldn't want freezing rain with this wave. Clap of thunder with heavy sleet in BV. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Heavy sleet here too, 18 degrees. Sometimes it wants to go over to snow but nope right back to sleet, hopefully we get all sleet and no freezing rain but who knows. Be safe everyone, roads are a mess here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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