JoMo Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 It's that time of year again. Looks like another La Nina year coming up. Euro showing some interesting stuff when it comes to having a possible weaker polar vortex this winter, at least early on, we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 I'll be here to follow along again. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 14 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said: I'll be here to follow along again. Ditto! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 24, 2021 Author Share Posted October 24, 2021 Models trying to go with a colder look the first week of Nov. Maybe more troughing in the central/eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 11 hours ago, JoMo said: Models trying to go with a colder look the first week of Nov. Maybe more troughing in the central/eastern US. Jomo, I dont really want to see it get too cold this early. I would rather see it happen at end of November, if it happens. Try to salvage a winter month before laniña kicks in, which this one is a second year niña. They can go either way. A -epo/wpo would be a good thing this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Does no one post here much anymore? It is dead for such a big severe potential in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 If only it was winter. Perfect track for KC on the upcoming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 I'm here! Winter is upon us before we know it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 Nice, cold, rainy fall day today. Even colder air is on the way next week though. Springfield even mentioned this: Quote If some lingering showers remain across the region Wednesday morning and again Thursday morning, some wet snow flakes may mix in with the rain but no accumulations are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 My prediction for Winter starting in December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 This is my go-to place for winter weather info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOkie_124 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Same here. I'll post observations in NW Oklahoma as the winter gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 My Southern Plains Winter Forum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 6, 2021 Author Share Posted November 6, 2021 Time for the fantasy winter storms to start showing up on the GFS. Nice one at the end of the 00z GFS tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2021 Author Share Posted November 14, 2021 Winter snowfall looking near normal for most months except Feb. https://www.bennollweather.com/ecmwf All kinds of cool maps from Ben Noll. https://github.com/Dreamsh0t/copernicus_imagery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 The long range 18z GFS is believable, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 16 hours ago, MUWX said: The long range 18z GFS is believable, right? The Thanksgiving time period has switched around a lot on all the models from run to run. Theoretically, it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 The 12z Euro has a winter storm in the area for Thanksgiving and Black Friday and even into Saturday. The models continue to shift around during that time period and further changes in the solutions will probably occur. What a crazy solution though. 17.8" of snow in Joplin with 25" just off to the NE. 17.7" in Tulsa, and even 8.2" in NW AR. Very low chance any of this happens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, JoMo said: The 12z Euro has a winter storm in the area for Thanksgiving and Black Friday and even into Saturday. The models continue to shift around during that time period and further changes in the solutions will probably occur. What a crazy solution though. 17.8" of snow in Joplin with 25" just off to the NE. 17.7" in Tulsa, and even 8.2" in NW AR. Very low chance any of this happens though. Canadian try’s to do something but it’s a little further north and not as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/15/2021 at 1:00 PM, JoMo said: The Thanksgiving time period has switched around a lot on all the models from run to run. Theoretically, it's possible. Although there is little chance of a huge snow event happening next week , just the mention stirred up my snow excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Doramo said: Although there is little chance of a huge snow event happening next week , just the mention stirred up my snow excitement Did you feel the Earthquake? And yeah, it's still very much in the air about next week, everything would have to line up pretty well for it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 12 hours ago, JoMo said: Did you feel the Earthquake? And yeah, it's still very much in the air about next week, everything would have to line up pretty well for it to happen. I hadn't noticed the earthquake here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2021 Author Share Posted November 19, 2021 The models continue to change pretty significantly from run to run when it comes to the time period around Thanksgiving. The most surprising being how much the 00z Euro changed from the 12z Euro today. It all hinges on what happens with some energy coming out of the SW US and if/how it interacts with some energy moving in from the north/northwest. The models are having trouble deciding on what to do and that has a big impact on the weather expected from Thanksgiving into next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2021 Author Share Posted November 20, 2021 Pretty much all the models have shifted to a solution favoring more of a northern stream system and cold frontal passage/rain for us around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 Happy Thanksgiving to all. The GFS has been teasing the long range but nothing set in stone yet as far as winter weather goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Happy Thanksgiving. Looks cold in the weeks ahead, but nothing consistent storm wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 I had a Happy Thanksgiving and I trust all had the same...and now unto Merry Christmas Y'all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2021 Author Share Posted November 27, 2021 The ensembles are pretty ugly for the foreseeable future. Horrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 31 minutes ago, JoMo said: The ensembles are pretty ugly for the foreseeable future. Horrible pattern. EPO is extremely Positive & the models have underestimated how long it's being positive right now, it would be a HUGE anomaly to have the EPO positive for the Entire Winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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