madwx Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 like Cyclone got a much needed 3/4 of a inch yesterday. Have had very dense fog since about 8 pm last night. Can definitely tell we are slowly turning theh page to fall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 yeah got barely scraped by some late evening thunder, nice to get some moisture back in the soil weird pattern, was boring in early sept but becoming more fun as it hangs on into stranger climo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 This upper low lifting north through the western sub greatly over-performed around here. Widespread 0.75-1.75" fell across the Cedar Rapids area last evening and overnight. My total is 1.01". I was just hoping for a tenth or two. Monday's system should lay down another swath of good rain across eastern Iowa. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Quality day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Madison has set the record for most days in a year with high temps at or above 75. Will be quickly closing in on days above 70 as well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2021 Author Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 hour ago, madwx said: Madison has set the record for most days in a year with high temps at or above 75. Will be quickly closing in on days above 70 as well Interesting obscure record. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 KIND Models are starting to come to a better consensus for the first low which will bring a line of thunderstorms along a cold (or really, slightly cooler) front across the region from late Monday evening into Tuesday. Tight pressure gradients ahead of this system will bring breezy winds to the area during the day Monday as well. Will have to keep an eye for the potential of severe weather Monday night... seeing CAPE values around 1000 J/kg and bulk shear values around 50. There is still much to be seen and refined until then, but the potential for some embedded severe storms is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TO LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms -- including potential for hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes -- are expected to spread from the Mid Mississippi Valley region early, north-northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes into the evening/overnight hours Sunday and into early Monday. ...Synopsis... Western U.S. troughing will continue to dig south-southeastward Sunday, eventually evolving into a closed low surrounded by cyclonic flow which should encompass the entire Intermountain West by the end of the period. Ahead of this digging system, a negatively tilted short-wave trough will eject north-northeastward across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, and into the Upper Great Lakes overnight. At the surface, a cold front ahead of the western trough will cross the Great Basin/northern Intermountain region during the first half of the period, reaching a position from the northern Plains to the Four Corners states by the end of the period. Farther east, a frontal wave will shift north-northeastward from Missouri to Wisconsin, while the cold front makes only minor eastward progress through the period. ...Lower Ohio/Mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to Lower Michigan... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley area at the start of the period, with local severe risk possibly accompanying a few of the stronger updrafts. As the upper trough sweeps north-northeastward in an increasingly negatively tilted manner through the day, and a surface frontal wave moves across Missouri to northern Illinois, surface heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of ongoing convection through late morning should allow ample destabilization to foster redevelopment/reintensification of convection ahead of the low/front. Given strong flow with height ahead of the upper system, veering gradually through mid levels, shear will support updraft rotation, resulting in scattered strong/severe storms capable of producing all severe hazards. Risk should gradually spread northward, across the Midwest and extending into lower Michigan through the evening and into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 10/09/2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Monday is getting interesting KIND The unseasonably warm weather will continue for much of the upcoming week even as we transition back into a more active regime. A broad upper trough will remain anchored over the Rockies and High Plains through much of the first half of the week...with pieces of energy aloft kicking out downstream of the trough. The first of these pieces of energy will move into the western Great Lakes late Monday into Monday night...helping to generate a surface wave over the southern Plains late Sunday before lifting northeast into Wisconsin by Monday evening. Expect a warm...breezy day for the forecast area Monday with rain chances increasing by late day as a trailing frontal boundary accompanies the surface low and swings into the area Monday night. The overall model suite has come into better alignment on the track of the features at the surface and aloft with just timing differences now present. However...the orientation and track of the system does present some potential for convective impacts across central Indiana late Monday afternoon and evening and a higher ceiling for severe weather as well with modest BL shear and instability present ahead of the front. At this point...potential setting up for predominantly linear convection ahead of the front Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds. Model soundings though do show a nice amount of directional shear through the boundary layer and storm relative helicities over 200 m2/s2 in a narrow axis ahead of the front which would support rotating updrafts and an elevated risk for tornadoes. This will be something to monitor over the weekend as the parameters associated with this system align further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 NWS NORTHERN INDIANA "A vigorous upper low will be ejecting up from the southwest during this period, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. SPC now has the area in a slight risk for severe storms with this system. This is definitely plausible as a high shear, low CAPE situation. NAM sfc CAPE is less than 2000 J/kg, but bulk shear increases to 50 kts Monday evening. Damaging wind, hail, and even a few tornadoes will be possible." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Through the first 1/4 of the month, ORD has a temp departure of +10.8. With the very warm temps expected to continue into mid month, the next 1/4 of the month and combined first 1/2 departures should end up just as high.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9, 2021 Author Share Posted October 9, 2021 It is the 150th anniversary of the Great Chicago Fire. LOT put this together for anyone who is interested. https://www.weather.gov/lot/1871fire 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Looking forward to another soaker on Monday. Grass has actually started growing again lol. We're up to 1.75" for October which is well over double what we got in all of September. Haven't fired up the furnace yet this season, maybe next weekend as overnight temps may dip well into the 40s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Peak fall conditions in the Adirondacks! Went hiking up there today. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Looking forward to another soaker on Monday. Models still don't agree on where the heaviest rain swath will fall. There are a couple models showing the heaviest just w/nw of Cedar Rapids. A couple others show a total miss southeast. Others are in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Picked up 0.44" today, with a few brief downpours and some thunder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2021 Author Share Posted October 10, 2021 Made it to the mid 80s here. Definitely near top tier warmth for the 10th of October. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Made it to the mid 80s here. Definitely near top tier warmth for the 10th of October. Yeah…and today’s min was 70 at ORD, the 2nd warmest daily min on record so late in the season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Svr watch this evening. Had a warned cell. Since Fri have had 1.2" of rain. Very Sept like the past few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm warning for Isle Royale currently. Not something you see often, especially in October 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Normally this time of year, if it is breezy after sunset, you need to dress in layers. Not here, not tonight. T-shirt weather even in the dark... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 12 hours ago, madwx said: Severe Thunderstorm warning for Isle Royale currently. Not something you see often, especially in October There was a tornado warning up in the arrowhead of MN too, before the OK event even initiated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Nice soaking downpours with some loud boomers this morning. Already at 0.86" and climbing fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 I'm nearing an inch of rain since early Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 1.2" of rain at the arpt. Warned cell just clipped the airport giving more rain than town. 0.6" here in town. Doing well with the rain this Fall. Chilly out today with temps near normal in the upper 50's. Looks like seasonable weather for the upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Up to 1.30" for the day, 1.74" since yesterday. Pretty muggy out there with mid 60 dews. Severe threat seems meager for the QC. Best shot looks in their southeastern cwa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Another nice soak to beat the drought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 My 2-day rain total is 1.73". I'm pretty happy with that. We have been stuck in the mid 50s all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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