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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook
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Models generally have more than 0.3" of QPF for Tuesday, with some variations in timing. 

Quote
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 137 PM MST Thu Jan 27 2022

For the weekend and into early week a broad area of high pressure
will cover much of the Western U.S. This will bring a drying and
strong warming trend to Northern Colorado over the weekend. 700mb
temperatures increase and range from 0c to +2c which will support
highs in the 40s/50s depending on snow cover and inversion
strengths. There is a weak cutoff low which moves across New
Mexico on Sunday but too far south for any impact across our neck
of the woods.

Pattern change coming up for Northern Colorado will come in the next
Tuesday and Wednesday time frame with the next shot of snow and much
colder temperatures.  Next system has quite the cold air with 700mb
temperatures plunges to -20c by Wednesday. Strong surface high
pressure with 1040mb high drops down over the northern high plains
with strong northeast upslope flow developing. There is still
timing differences between the long range models but certainly in
the Tue-Wed time frame will be looking at much colder
temperatures and a decent shot of accumulating snow. Some of the
guidance has temperatures even colder than current forecast so
will start to trend temperatures downward.

 

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Talking about Groundhog's Day, how about 2/2/2011. This was the Midwest's Groundhog's Day Storm, which was part of a bigger system that brought some of the coldest air I've seen in Fort Collins, with a  -19F outside Fort Collins and -17F at Denver Airport, -38F at Laramie.

Our localized Groundhog's day storm 2/2/2012 (I think a significant portion of the snow fell on 2/3/2012)

 

Then, there was our other Groundhog Storm, 2016. That was the one where I saw the 500mb trough on the GEFS ensembles something like 12 or 13 days in advance.

 

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Models are back up to QPF of  0.3" to 0.7" for west of I-25. I believe that it will snow over 3" for my place, perhaps much more, as snow ratios could be above 12:1 or 13:1. I just hope it starts after I get home from work on Tuesday. That would be nice.

I'm not sure were Mayjawintastawm used to live, but this may generate some interest. (Magenta color is 30dBz). Wind gusts have been even 60mph to 70mph at Cape Cod.

RDS79rn.jpg

 

JEbG0cQ.jpg

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10 hours ago, Chinook said:

Models are back up to QPF of  0.3" to 0.7" for west of I-25. I believe that it will snow over 3" for my place, perhaps much more, as snow ratios could be above 12:1 or 13:1. I just hope it starts after I get home from work on Tuesday. That would be nice.

I'm not sure were Mayjawintastawm used to live, but this may generate some interest. (Magenta color is 30dBz). Wind gusts have been even 60mph to 70mph at Cape Cod.

RDS79rn.jpg

 

Oh yeah baby... we lived just east of ORH, where that last band won't quit. My sister says 22" and still coming down hard. Our friends in Scituate (15 miles SSE of Boston), 3 blocks from the beach, had 75 mph winds and over 2 feet of snow (they think, drifting made it impossible to measure). Infrastructure there is so solid, they lost power for an hour at the height of the storm but as soon as their generator really started to make a difference, the power came back on and has been fine since. Dang.

 

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Loveland stayed above 50 degrees for a few hours while some cooler air moved in through every other area.

The cold air from central Canada is blasting into the Dakotas tonight with 40mph to 55mph wind gusts. NWS Boulder has made some small adjustments: 6-8" Fort Collins, Greeley, Boulder, Evergreen, Colorado Springs, 4-6" Estes Park, Denver Castle Rock, 3-4" Denver Airport, approximately 4"- most of the plains of Colorado.

The 00z GFS and Canadian still have pretty high QPF values with 0.6" to 0.9" for west of I-25, which is effectively higher than the NWS expects.

And the joke of the day award goes to the ... NAM, with zero snow for me.

KCFL6zZ.jpg

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NWS is talking about a Denver cyclone that could mess with snow amounts (in either direction) south of town. It does look like there is a counterclockwise circulation on radars, which pulled a brief band over here with 1/4 mile visibility about 4:30-5 PM, though now it's back to just light snow. Will be interesting to see what happens. Started just before 4 PM here.

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My place got a bunch of high-ratio fluff, by my estimation, we went from 2.0" at 8:30PM to 7.7" at 11:00PM. Then, I think the snow packed down and we got a much lower snowfall rate. Storm reports  7-11" for Loveland, 7-12" Fort Collins, somewhere around 8" at my place.

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