Chinook Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looks like GFS/Canadian tonight still have a strongly cooling temperatures and snow for Tuesday (2/1) (as discussed before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Been looking at the New England threads. Boy is my blood pressure glad I don't live there anymore!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 My area probably got 1" today, possibly a bit more. Storm reports say 1.5" Fort Collins and Loveland, 2"-3" from Longmont down to Denver, possibly 2-4" south Denver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2.5" here. 5.5" for the week, finally over 12" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Models generally have more than 0.3" of QPF for Tuesday, with some variations in timing. Quote .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 137 PM MST Thu Jan 27 2022 For the weekend and into early week a broad area of high pressure will cover much of the Western U.S. This will bring a drying and strong warming trend to Northern Colorado over the weekend. 700mb temperatures increase and range from 0c to +2c which will support highs in the 40s/50s depending on snow cover and inversion strengths. There is a weak cutoff low which moves across New Mexico on Sunday but too far south for any impact across our neck of the woods. Pattern change coming up for Northern Colorado will come in the next Tuesday and Wednesday time frame with the next shot of snow and much colder temperatures. Next system has quite the cold air with 700mb temperatures plunges to -20c by Wednesday. Strong surface high pressure with 1040mb high drops down over the northern high plains with strong northeast upslope flow developing. There is still timing differences between the long range models but certainly in the Tue-Wed time frame will be looking at much colder temperatures and a decent shot of accumulating snow. Some of the guidance has temperatures even colder than current forecast so will start to trend temperatures downward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 hours ago, smokeybandit said: 2.5" here. 5.5" for the week, finally over 12" for the season. 3.2", 11.5" Jan, 16.7" season. Getting there. Typically, snowfall by Groundhog Day is about 40% of the season total, so with next Tuesday we might be getting close to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Talking about Groundhog's Day, how about 2/2/2011. This was the Midwest's Groundhog's Day Storm, which was part of a bigger system that brought some of the coldest air I've seen in Fort Collins, with a -19F outside Fort Collins and -17F at Denver Airport, -38F at Laramie. Our localized Groundhog's day storm 2/2/2012 (I think a significant portion of the snow fell on 2/3/2012) Then, there was our other Groundhog Storm, 2016. That was the one where I saw the 500mb trough on the GEFS ensembles something like 12 or 13 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 GFS is now pretty meh on the storm next week for NE CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 28 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: GFS is now pretty meh on the storm next week for NE CO. New England storm is stealing all the energy from the rest of the continent. The rest of us get meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 13 hours ago, smokeybandit said: GFS is now pretty meh on the storm next week for NE CO. It is trending up again. NWS Boulder also had a nice write up in this morning’s AFD on the case for high snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Models are back up to QPF of 0.3" to 0.7" for west of I-25. I believe that it will snow over 3" for my place, perhaps much more, as snow ratios could be above 12:1 or 13:1. I just hope it starts after I get home from work on Tuesday. That would be nice. I'm not sure were Mayjawintastawm used to live, but this may generate some interest. (Magenta color is 30dBz). Wind gusts have been even 60mph to 70mph at Cape Cod. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 10 hours ago, Chinook said: Models are back up to QPF of 0.3" to 0.7" for west of I-25. I believe that it will snow over 3" for my place, perhaps much more, as snow ratios could be above 12:1 or 13:1. I just hope it starts after I get home from work on Tuesday. That would be nice. I'm not sure were Mayjawintastawm used to live, but this may generate some interest. (Magenta color is 30dBz). Wind gusts have been even 60mph to 70mph at Cape Cod. Oh yeah baby... we lived just east of ORH, where that last band won't quit. My sister says 22" and still coming down hard. Our friends in Scituate (15 miles SSE of Boston), 3 blocks from the beach, had 75 mph winds and over 2 feet of snow (they think, drifting made it impossible to measure). Infrastructure there is so solid, they lost power for an hour at the height of the storm but as soon as their generator really started to make a difference, the power came back on and has been fine since. Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 This next storm looks like a foothills special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The gradients on this one will be frustrating. It could go from a foot to nearly nothing in a matter of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Denver will probably issue a winter storm watch or winter weather advisory. It seems like they would already have done something like that with the "weather story" graphic from their web page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 My place is now getting the downslope winds before the storm. It wasn't windy an hour ago, or really, not windy for a few days. Here is what NWS Boulder posted before. This storm is going to hit my homeland of northwest Ohio pretty bad, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Loveland stayed above 50 degrees for a few hours while some cooler air moved in through every other area. The cold air from central Canada is blasting into the Dakotas tonight with 40mph to 55mph wind gusts. NWS Boulder has made some small adjustments: 6-8" Fort Collins, Greeley, Boulder, Evergreen, Colorado Springs, 4-6" Estes Park, Denver Castle Rock, 3-4" Denver Airport, approximately 4"- most of the plains of Colorado. The 00z GFS and Canadian still have pretty high QPF values with 0.6" to 0.9" for west of I-25, which is effectively higher than the NWS expects. And the joke of the day award goes to the ... NAM, with zero snow for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Looks like 1-2 feet for the NM ski resorts. Upwards of 3 feet for the high peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Looks like yet another storm where the snow blower stays in the garage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CO SciFan Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 We've had light snow for most of the day in Laporte, but things are starting to get going more now with a solid light snow. Hoping for over a foot here in our location close to the foothills! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NWS is talking about a Denver cyclone that could mess with snow amounts (in either direction) south of town. It does look like there is a counterclockwise circulation on radars, which pulled a brief band over here with 1/4 mile visibility about 4:30-5 PM, though now it's back to just light snow. Will be interesting to see what happens. Started just before 4 PM here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 first accumulation on pavement: 4:00PM or perhaps a little later 8:30PM, 2" on ground or more, snow rate 0.5"-1" per hour, winds 15mph plus, away from town. Probably 5-10mph in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tlagon Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Dry slot in Thornton for past 2 hours. Roughly 1.25" here as of 9:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 radar and all METAR precip types Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Only about 4" up here. We have seen quite a few 3"-4" snows here this season, but yet to see a true dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 My place got a bunch of high-ratio fluff, by my estimation, we went from 2.0" at 8:30PM to 7.7" at 11:00PM. Then, I think the snow packed down and we got a much lower snowfall rate. Storm reports 7-11" for Loveland, 7-12" Fort Collins, somewhere around 8" at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Missed the band by maybe 4-5 miles at most... limped in with 6.0" of fluff over 25 hours, doubt if it was more than 0.25" WE. ValpoVike, you'll be getting 15" storms when the rest of us get cold rain in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 And cold at our house this morning! -11 for a low right at 7 AM. Coldest in 3-4 years anyway, maybe longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 I think I really got 8.5" to 8.7" and 0.58" of water equivalent. These are the last 2 runs of the NOHRSC analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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