Chinook Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 a little off topic here: Models continue to tease the East Coast with the possibility of a major snowstorm for the big cities. Most recent ECMWF has this offshore, but still nobody knows what will happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Is it just me and social media, or has the East Coast had more than its share of winter epics the last 6-7 years? When I lived in MA, we had a big storm every 2-3 years, but I don't remember having anywhere near this many. Plus there has been a lot more cold Ohio Valley and east the past few years, that's certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: Is it just me and social media, or has the East Coast had more than its share of winter epics the last 6-7 years? When I lived in MA, we had a big storm every 2-3 years, but I don't remember having anywhere near this many. Plus there has been a lot more cold Ohio Valley and east the past few years, that's certain. I moved from the mid Atlantic in summer 2019. 2009-2010 remains the best (50" of snow in one week) but since then we'd be lucky to get one good storm (8"+) per season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 My thinking is that the East Coast has had more high-NESIS storms from 2002-03 up to the "Great Snow" of 2015, but possibly including the January 23, 2016 storm. Then, I think things have been somewhat more quiet, particularly for Boston starting 2018-2019. "Great Snow" is somewhat in reference to the colonists' "Great Snow of 1717." My area has stayed cooler than Denver since the weekend, with diminishing snow depth, but not zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here is a comparison of the 12/13 Rex Block (12/31 storm) and the forecast 1/14 Rex Block by Kamchatka. Expecting a pretty cold storm and a weak low underneath it sometime in the 1/31-2/3 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'm pretty sure this will get lost if I post it in Mid-Atlantic, New York or other subforums, so here it is. Analogs #6, #7 and #12 kind of look like the GFS/Canadian this evening, but, hey, winter of 2002-2003 shows up three times, and ... Snowmageddon, and 12/5/03, the last storm that is in the Kocin-Uccellini (2004) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 hours ago, smokeybandit said: I moved from the mid Atlantic in summer 2019. 2009-2010 remains the best (50" of snow in one week) but since then we'd be lucky to get one good storm (8"+) per season So it's probably the social media effect then. I remember driving from MA to FL in the late winter/early spring of 2010... a few days after the big storms and a few months before moving to CO. Never seen such snowbanks in MD/VA!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 hours ago, Chinook said: I'm pretty sure this will get lost if I post it in Mid-Atlantic, New York or other subforums, so here it is. Analogs #6, #7 and #12 kind of look like the GFS/Canadian this evening, but, hey, winter of 2002-2003 shows up three times, and ... Snowmageddon, and 12/5/03, the last storm that is in the Kocin-Uccellini (2004) Amazing how a tiny difference in trajectory creates such different outcomes for the major EC cities. But the majority seem to track the heavy snow inland. I remember 12/5/03 well, had a 6 yo and a 4 yo kid and we built a VERY large snow fort once I was able to get home from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 47 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: Amazing how a tiny difference in trajectory creates such different outcomes for the major EC cities. But the majority seem to track the heavy snow inland. I remember 12/5/03 well, had a 6 yo and a 4 yo kid and we built a VERY large snow fort once I was able to get home from work. I don't know about you, but my best memories as a kid (and later with my kids) mostly involve big snow events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 hours ago, ValpoVike said: I don't know about you, but my best memories as a kid (and later with my kids) mostly involve big snow events. I was 12 in the Blizzard of '78 in E MA, when my parents took their only vacation without us EVER - to Bermuda. They were stuck there for an extra week, and we had off school for almost 2 weeks. Plow took 3 days to get to our street. We had fun with the babysitter, jumping off our roof into the drifts, and had to XC ski to the corner store to get whatever they had left. Now that was fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 looks like there is some snow on the southwest half of the Denver metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Chinook said: looks like there is some snow on the southwest half of the Denver metro Got 0.3" for a season total of 7.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 Interesting fact: a volcano erupted in Tonga (southwest Pacific Ocean) at 04z (Jan 15.) and sent an atmospheric pressure wave and a tsunami halfway across the world. There was a small (?) tsunami detected in Alaska. Barometers picked up a pressure fluctuation across the USA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I was looking at the monthly SOI readings back to the 1930s earlier today. If we hold on around -7 in January, that's really unusual after very positive readings in Nov-Dec. One of the top years that shows up as a match for February is 2019. Really hope people in Montana don't have to go through that level of bullshit cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 We have a new winter weather advisory for freezing drizzle tonight/tomorrow. I didn't really see that one coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Lots of frozen fog here, but surfaces are dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Wow, it is really slick out there. At least it is up here, but I am also reading that areas adjacent to the foothills have a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 My area got some freezing drizzle and maybe 0.5" snow or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1.1" snow today, 3.8" for the month, 9" season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 Models generally have snow for eastern Colorado on Monday night-Tuesday with a 500mb shortwave from the northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 NWS pretty bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 16 hours ago, smokeybandit said: NWS pretty bullish I kind of doubt the northern amounts, but the models are all pretty close on a decent hit for foothills and palmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 13 hours ago, ValpoVike said: I kind of doubt the northern amounts, but the models are all pretty close on a decent hit for foothills and palmer. Yeah, this could overperform here if the moisture holds on long enough... forecast winds are just about perfect for upslope for my neighborhood (~020 for a solid 8 hour period) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 School districts south of Denver really jumped the gun on delays. The worst of it now will be right when the buses start to go pick up kids. Had they stuck with a normal opening, there'd have been no impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 The heavier snow is at Denver right now with 1/2 mile visibility at DEN, Erie, BKF (1/4 mile) APA (1/4 mile) As for me, the storm is done. I am pretty sure I got 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just eyeballing it I'd be surprised if I got past 2" Still under 10" for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Snow reports from Denver are 4" to 5", similar to my area. The snow award goes to some rural area outside of Goodland, with apparently some awesome dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 10:10 PM, raindancewx said: Here is a comparison of the 12/13 Rex Block (12/31 storm) and the forecast 1/14 Rex Block by Kamchatka. Expecting a pretty cold storm and a weak low underneath it sometime in the 1/31-2/3 period. There it is boys. I want a cookie Chinook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nothing in reality looks exactly like the GFS 180 hour forecast. Nevertheless, we've certainly had times when you've been sort of right. It seems like we have broken out of the very long dry period. It seems like this sort of upper level trough is supported by ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 23 hours ago, Chinook said: Snow reports from Denver are 4" to 5", similar to my area. The snow award goes to some rural area outside of Goodland, with apparently some awesome dynamics I was looking at that as it was happening. Our friends just north of Burlington got a foot, while reports 10 miles away were like 5-7 inches. There was this narrow band that sat, then pivoted, right where those big amounts were, with what looked like upper level rotation moving W-->E. We got 4.5", consistent with half the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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