Witness Protection Program Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Honestly, I don't know if this ongoing fire situation was anything anyone could "prepare for": - High density, essentially urban to suburban area (this was not isolated homes surrounded by burnable vegetation) just downwind of foothills/prairie - Open space, mainly grass, to the west (not forested, just prairie) where it started - Driest 6 months in recorded weather history for the immediate area - Winds coming down the canyons with widespread, prolonged gusts over 80 MPH- a little ember can go miles with that kind of wind - NWS assessment as late as 3 AM today was mixed as far as high wind threat- the AFDs told you how much trouble they were having with their decisions AND IT'S FREAKING DECEMBER 30!! Just an enormous tragedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 We got a snow band develop east of the mountains here at 8:00AM. It is officially starting for my area! Some accumulation on the grass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 snow is starting in the Denver metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Chinook said: snow is starting in the Denver metro area. Just started snowing lightly here in Arvada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 The clouds rolling in have that snow look to them, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Radar is filling in nicely as the upslope kicks in. Definitely feels like a solid snow setting up as banding is also evident and started a few hours ago with the band that roughly set up from Boulder to Greeley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Dewpoint still 13 degrees here, though snow isn't supposed to start until later anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 I changed the GRLevel3 color palette to make the colors look really wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 There are worst starts to winter: More Kamchatka lows today and in the next few days. We should get more help after a break in late January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy snowy New Year to everybody! Finally, the snow drought is over. Fort Collins, got, officially 0.7" in November, which was the only snow up until yesterday, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Very nice! We got 4.5" here, a good surprise. It's weird because there is a new COCORAHS station just a mile SW of me that measured 8". No way we got any more than 6" anywhere in the yard, even by "ski area measuring technique". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Nice guys. Looks like you had a good, solid snowfall out there! Finally, right!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just a cold cold rain for me. Mountains look amazing though. My investments look like they did quite well in Q4 too. The county generally had 0.2-0.5 inches reported by trained observers. So parts of the city finished December with average precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 I measured 8" in a couple of places. So that's a good one, in my book. I could post pictures, but they are much like other pictures I've posted in the past. As for the observed snowfall graphics on Pivotalweather, it comes from the NOHRSC. I would imagine they will have to do a correction for 24-hr snowfall amounts in Colorado, as probably some more correct values will show up on tomorrow's analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 It looks like there is a chance of snow for northern Colorado on Wednesday. It will be with a WNW flow aloft. It could perhaps favor Cheyenne and western Nebraska. It's kind of one of those wait-and-see situations. edit: 00z GFS is kind of nuts for Cheyenne to Fort Collins, hmm, 0.52" of preciptation and 11.7" of snow... 22.5:1 snow ratio. sounds high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 16 hours ago, Chinook said: It looks like there is a chance of snow for northern Colorado on Wednesday. It will be with a WNW flow aloft. It could perhaps favor Cheyenne and western Nebraska. It's kind of one of those wait-and-see situations. edit: 00z GFS is kind of nuts for Cheyenne to Fort Collins, hmm, 0.52" of preciptation and 11.7" of snow... 22.5:1 snow ratio. sounds high. 12z doubled down on the nuttiness. QPF is now up to 0.7" in the Ft Collins to Cheyenne area....and now showing over 16" snow for Ft Collins, so it is staying with it's very high ratios. Meanwhile the Euro only shows 0.3" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Each global model has somewhat more than the NAM QPF of 0.2" for Fort Collins-Loveland-Greeley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Now upper and lower Larimer County have winter storm warnings, possibly for different reasons. I think the reason for the W.S.W. for lower Larimer County is higher winds, which is kind of surprising since it isn't windy yet. It isn't snowy yet, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 22 minutes ago, Chinook said: Now upper and lower Larimer County have winter storm warnings, possibly for different reasons. I think the reason for the W.S.W. for lower Larimer County is higher winds, which is kind of surprising since it isn't windy yet. It isn't snowy yet, either. 18z NAM ramped up the snow for Fort Collins, now over 8". A pretty sizeable increase over the 12z run. Cheyenne get's buried. Larimer foothills look to be in a snow hole, wedged between good amounts in both the mountains and the flatlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 It's getting into Denver now, with 1/2 mile visibility at Erie and BJC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 15 minutes ago, Chinook said: It's getting into Denver now, with 1/2 mile visibility at Erie and BJC I am probably 2.5 miles NNE from Olde Town Arvada - been sitting in a really nice band for maybe 20 minutes now. We'll see how far south these things sink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Pine Bluffs, WY, east of Cheyenne, already got more than 10". For my place, maybe 1/2" per hour for 4 hours, or something like that. I'll check later. It gets harder for me to measure snow without the base layer as the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Once again, my super color scheme that shows relatively small changes in reflectivity. Narrow bands of snow make you think the mountains are blasting out lake-effect snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Managed to pull a bit over an inch from that due to getting under a band. Better than i was expecting. Though the low temp of 4 degrees predicted is already a bust high, -2 degrees right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Banding is nuts. 1 inch here at 1015 PM, looks like places less than 10 miles south and west got 5-6. Mountains even more impressive, with 3 and a half inches at Loveland Ski area but a foot just a few miles away. Lake effect indeed. Maybe the Chatfield Reservoir effect? EDIT: snow stake at bottom of Loveland Ski area says 8 inches. The SNOTEL site had 3 and a half. So ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Exactly my thoughts last night looking at radar. The presentation reminded me of my years in Geauga county Ohio and the lake effect bands. However, the banding gods did not smile upon us here, with a meager 3". I'll take it though. Hopefully the areas east of the foothills got more as they need it much, much more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 I measured 4.5" last night, and this morning it didn't seem like a lot more. This morning I had to resort to measuring snow on top of snow, or snow on top of objects. So that's kind of bad. CoCoRAHS has some 4.5" values in Loveland, and also one measurement of 7.1" Most of Fort Collins had 5". snow basins: the South Platte basin has gone from 59% of snow water equivalent on December 8th to 122% today. 129% in the Upper Colorado River basin today. Everything in the West is above 100% except for up near Great Falls, MT, and Pueblo (upper Arkansas River basin). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Montana is 50 degrees warmer than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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