Mountain West Discussion

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, mayjawintastawm said:

That is really interesting. When I lived in MA (most of my life) it was sometimes even a bit later, like end of January, as the ocean tempered things a little earlier in the season. The Denver climatology curve is really dead-flat in terms of average temps from now through mid-January. Anecdotally, some of the lowest temps IMBY occur later in the season (early Feb) when there is more snow cover, but are balanced by slightly higher highs.

Good point. We've definitely had some much lower temps in late January, but there's just enough warmer downslope days to balance it so it's just a slight bit warmer in the averages in late January.

 

I'm going to see rain soon, but not here.

[mayjawintastawm]

Finally something to talk about in the mountains, and cause for celebration for skiers in the next two weeks. 12-18 inches through Christmas at the Summit County areas, more as you go NW and SW, and possibility of more next week. ValpoVike, keep us posted! (any other posters on this board in the mountains?)

[snowfan789]

46 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Finally something to talk about in the mountains, and cause for celebration for skiers in the next two weeks. 12-18 inches through Christmas at the Summit County areas, more as you go NW and SW, and possibility of more next week. ValpoVike, keep us posted! (any other posters on this board in the mountains?)

Am fortunate to have recently relocated from the Front Range to near Glenwood Springs. Live higher up near Sunlight at about 7000’ . Looks like we may actually see rain today (hopefully not after today) but longer term forecast looks promising. Have probably got 6-8” of settled snowpack right now.

[ValpoVike]

Something really strange is in the air today.  There are tiny moist particles falling from the sky...I actually had to turn on my windshield wipers to push it aside. 

[mayjawintastawm]

24 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

Something really strange is in the air today.  There are tiny moist particles falling from the sky...I actually had to turn on my windshield wipers to push it aside. 

Danger, Will Robinson... it's dihydrogen monoxide. Very hazardous.

[raindancewx]

I'd keep your eyes on the end of the month for something. Huge SOI crash around 12/20 and also a very powerful Kamchatka low / rex block on 12/13 both point to some fun and games around 12/30-1/3. There is already a pretty decent signal for something around 12/30 on the models now.

[Chinook]

14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'd keep your eyes on the end of the month for something. Huge SOI crash around 12/20 and also a very powerful Kamchatka low / rex block on 12/13 both point to some fun and games around 12/30-1/3. There is already a pretty decent signal for something around 12/30 on the models now.

I got my flight back from the Midwest on 12/30, but I don't see any precip on the models, east of the mountains, yet. Definitely some interesting things at 500mb in the West, though.

Apparently Fort Collins-Loveland reported -RA today, certainly weird for December.

Lots of precip happening in the Southwest today, with over 1" of rain reported in and around Phoenix. 

[raindancewx]

This December will finish wetter than average for most of the Southwest. 

If you remember July, Arizona was very wet. It's very difficult for the Southwest to be super dry in December when July is wet if you look at the history. A lot of NW NM will get 0.25" or more today, and then we'll have more around 12/30 or 12/31 I think. Not sure you guys will get something late month, I think it's the wrong track still.

Rain should move to Albuquerque shortly. It always feels so weird to go back to dew points in the 40s after so many December days had negative dew points. This is already a good storm for the high terrain for us. For what it's worth, the CFS in January is very wet for Western Colorado, NM and all areas of the SW west of that line, and continues to trend wetter. Plenty more to come. I went with 1-3 feet for a lot of the high terrain in Northern NM with this system. I'd given this pattern a 3 for temperatures for NM - but it's a 5 or 6 for moisture. A lot of the NW will finish wet, and that's not a terrible outcome in a La Nina with the most -PDO in 50+ years.

 

[smokeybandit]

Got a quick coating here from that band that went through Denver into the Palmer Divide. Temps went from 48 to 32.

I might be able to claim a white Christmas 

[ValpoVike]

Yesterday my home was a frustrating 200' below the snow line.  This morning we awoke to a surprise 1.5". We are calling it the meteorological miracle 

[ValpoVike]

As of this morning I am sitting at 15.59" for the year. The closest climo data to me is Estes Park which shows around 14" annual average precip.  Not too bad...but we did have a good monsoon up here this year, followed by a very dry fall. It is remarkable just how different a situation it is just a few miles to the east.

[smokeybandit]

I'm at about 2" for the year.

[Chinook]

There has been a squall in western Colorado, with various measured wind gusts of 45mph to 80mph in the snow. Temps are slightly above freezing at Rifle and Grand Junction.

[ValpoVike]

On 12/23/2021 at 8:00 PM, raindancewx said:

I'd keep your eyes on the end of the month for something. Huge SOI crash around 12/20 and also a very powerful Kamchatka low / rex block on 12/13 both point to some fun and games around 12/30-1/3. There is already a pretty decent signal for something around 12/30 on the models now.

Both the GFS and Euro agree with you.

[IowaStorm05]

I wish there was a California/Nevada section in addition to a PNW section. What do people out there not like talking about the weather? Well in case anyone from Northern Nevada comes around here imma talk about comparing Reno’s climate to Southern New England…. Especially in regards to winter weather.

Mogul, Nevada gets 3 times as much snow as East Reno and Sparks. But Sparks gets 3 times as much snow as Fernley. Reno is a steppe transition zone between a mountainous semi-evergreen-forested climatic deal that is similar to Golden, Co (Mogul), a true High elevation metro Steppe climate (Reno/Sparks), and a bona-fide total desert (Fernley). This entire transition takes place over a west-east span of 25 miles as the crow flies.

Mogul/Verdi area gets about 35-55 inches of snow per year. Sparks about 15 inches annually, and Fernley gets shit. Maybe 5 inches annually and that average is due to rare freak desert storms.

But the golden-colored spur of the Pah Rah range that lies between Sparks and Fernley is a weird enigma that sometimes serves to fire up thunderstorms over east sparks due to orographic lifting as a consequence of afternoon Washoe Zephyrs, or in retrograde patterns.

Also, that spur of the Pah Rah range is home to some of the nicer Sparks properties on its west foothills. I know this because I actually grew up in a house on that hill. The upper elevations of that cluster of hills actually reaches about 6000 feet at its peak… and I believe a NORAD or maybe an Airplane radar deal thingie sits on the plateau-like peak. And a cat litter mine and some radio antennas. This peak gets significantly more snow than people realize, due to its elevation, despite the fact it still lies within the strict rain shadow of the Sierra. 

Carson City also gets more snow than the eastern side of Reno…. Not so much because of the slight elevation advantage, but because the rain shadow cast by the Carson range and Sierra is more severe for the lower valley of Reno and Sparks, especially if you get a southwest flow.

Snowfall average varies quite a bit even from one part of the Valley to another in Reno, even if the elevation is the same. Actual Proximity to Peavine and the Carson range can be more important than a 200 or 300 foot elevation advantage that is had by hills between east Sparks and Spanish Springs. 

North Valleys are their own animal, but if you’re at or above about 4800 feet in those valleys (which excludes lower Sun Valley), you’re going to still do much better with snowfall than at the frickin’ Reno airport

Very nuanced shit here.

People throw around the 4500 foot figure for discussing the Reno elevation. Spanish Springs and downtown Reno are at 4500 feet thereabouts but seriously the metro area ranges from about 5500 feet at the highest suburbs above the southwest corner of McCarran Blvd, to actually just below 4400 feet if you are standing on the banks of the Truckee river just as it is exiting the east side of Sparks and the Truckee Meadows in general. 

But If you like snow you don’t want to be in that canyon at 4395 feet, trust me.

The worst snow averages in the general region are probably had somewhere in the valley where Fallon sits. Or the west shore of Pyramid Lake. 

The lowest valley in the region is Dixie Valley. It seriously stands out by sitting at 3300 feet. This is substantially lower than any place in Northern Nevada

 

[Chinook]

14 hours ago, ValpoVike said:

Both the GFS and Euro agree with you.

It's definitely going to get colder at that time, with a chance for snow on 12/31 and 1/1. It is most likely I will be back to my place before the colder weather hits, so that will be nice. Who would have ever thought I would have to wait until (maybe) Jan. 1 or later to see just 1" of snow in Fort Collins or Loveland?

I've seen rain twice since I've been in Ohio. It seems so strange to have a wet muddy lawn, wet roads, or fog.

 

I saw a tweet that a University of California research station at the high Sierras has 155" for the month.

[Chinook]

GFS/Canadian/UKMET have seriously changed

 

 

 

[smokeybandit]

I guess I should see if the snow blower will start.

[Chinook]

I guess the 500mb predictions changed just enough overnight to have 4 major models predict a bunch of snow for NE Colorado. I don't know if the big change will really be accurate.

[smokeybandit]

NWS is pretty bullish 

 

 

[raindancewx]

I mentioned a decent storm on my Twitter for 12/30-1/3 as early as 12/10 based on the GFS showing a Rex Block setup over Kamchatka on 12/13. That setup almost never fails for NM & CO. I personally don't really care what any models show more than 3-5 days out, especially with the airplane data sampling problems with COVID. 

[mayjawintastawm]

8 hours ago, Chinook said:

I guess the 500mb predictions changed just enough overnight to have 4 major models predict a bunch of snow for NE Colorado. I don't know if the big change will really be accurate.

This could be fun, compared to what we've had so far. Could triple the <1 inch we've had season to date... even if we take 50% of the predicted QPF 48 hours out, which was on target for many of last year's storms. If I need to shovel for more than 20 minutes, I'll call it a win. Then again, this could be one of those 25:1 "storms" where you can clear the snow in a moment with a leaf blower.

[ValpoVike]

I hope I don't jinx it, but some impressive accumulations on the models and the NWS forecasts for areas west of I25.  Including the snow-cursed city of Ft Collins.

[Chinook]

Overlay of 700mb winds/temps/RH for a time frame likely the middle of our storm

[smokeybandit]

One hell of a wind-driven fire SW of Boulder today.

[Calderon]

So far there are apparently numerous entire subdivisions in Superior and Louisville that have burned.

[Witness Protection Program]

Yeah, have a relative that has had to evacuate twice as the threatened areas move east.  Pretty sure his home is gone, he saw the next street over go up.

 

[Witness Protection Program]

 

[MN Transplant]

Evidently the Target and the new Element hotel in Superior have burned, to give another landmark on where the fire was.  Brutal day in CO.  

[Witness Protection Program]

Playing the vid gives a better sense of scale, doesn't fit in a single pic.

Colorado probably needs to rewrite some of their building and planning codes if a fire can burn this deep into urban areas and subdivisions.