ValpoVike Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 It looks to be a pretty healthy series of storms over the next 7 days, right on queue for March. The longer range seems rather bullish as well, and it looks like the trend is there...thankfully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 Hard to believe such nice 66-degree weather with sun will go away so quickly. Some rain and snow in on the radar out west, with a thunderstorm reported at Delta, CO (above freezing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 So far, the storm has been only some rain overnight (possible rain/snow mix) and then some snowflakes this afternoon. I got pictures of individual snowflakes. The NWS is calling for much 2-3" and 3-4" for the city areas tonight and tomorrow-- no winter weather advisories now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Got lucky with that heavy cell that went through last night. Got about 2.5" in under 2 hours. We'll see if models today are correct for another 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 It looks like Denver has gotten 2.5" to 4.5" today. There has been a transition to showery snow over the past couple of hours, with possibly a higher snow rate in Denver right now. As for me, I think I could still see some grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 My best guess is we got 3.5" over the entire Fri-Sun period. That big band last night that dropped 2 + inches 5 miles in any direction gave us less than an inch for some reason- I was driving around in it then got home and it was gone. The COCORAHS site near me got 1.0" Fri till 7 AM this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 It was mostly a pretty boring storm for me. Obviously the GFS was not good, neither was the 0.7" QPF from the NWS. I mean, I think I got 0.09" of rain and 1.0" of snow. The sun completely melted the snow that fell the last two days, and it's not even warm. I think there was 5.0" for parts near or in Denver city. And.... we will get back to very cold and snow for Wednesday and Thursday, for maybe the 6th different Wednesday/Thursday this calendar year. This will also affect Nebraska and Kansas. The pattern coming up this week will be a lot more like a February type pattern, with mostly westerly flow, with a trough contained in the Northwest, rather than a distinctive upper low over the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Operational GFS drops a bomb on the front range starting about hour 250. Whats the kamchatka connection say? @raindancewx This far out is fantasy land, but the macro pattern of multiple lows tracking into the West during our month with best big storm climo gives me hope (???) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 It's pretty likely that our area will have a winter storm watch for Wednesday, then maybe winter weather advisory or worse. Tonight's WPC 72-hr forecast says 0.3" QPF for most of our cities, 0.4" Cheyenne, 0.2" Colorado Spirngs, 0.5"-0.8" over 9000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, n1vek said: Operational GFS drops a bomb on the front range starting about hour 250. Whats the kamchatka connection say? @raindancewx This far out is fantasy land, but the macro pattern of multiple lows tracking into the West during our month with best big storm climo gives me hope (???) Some pretty nice model porn at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 hours ago, smokeybandit said: Some pretty nice model porn at least. It's true, the 18z GFS is like some of the more El Nino-influenced huge storms we've had in the past. But I guess it doesn't mean it can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 That run would have meant nearly 1" per hour rates for over 24 hours. 0z said "just kidding" but 6z keeps the idea of something plowable end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Whatever happens, we really need a big slug of moisture. 0.6" QPF 4-5 days out turns into 0.4" at the event onset and ends up verifying as 0.2", every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 3 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: Whatever happens, we really need a big slug of moisture. 0.6" QPF 4-5 days out turns into 0.4" at the event onset and ends up verifying as 0.2", every single time. 1000% - I don't know how much moisture this state would need to see before I say "hey, maybe let's hope this next storm falls apart before hitting here" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 The Denver cyclone swirl is evident on radar loop and the surface wind directions. As for me, it is sunny and snowy at the same time. Well, sunny enough to see shadows a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The widespread snow storm down here for 3/10-3/11 was signaled in late February with a huge low off Kamchatka. Nothing big since. https://twitter.com/NWSAlbuquerque/status/1501535829264584707/photo/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 I think I got 1.5" or possibly more. This whole 16 degrees in the afternoon stuff is 38 degrees below the average of high temperature 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 We've had 2.2" of snow, remarkably high density for the temps- really, dust fell all day long so not a lot of air in the snow. I'm guessing we're close to 0.2" WE. It was 12-14 F most of the afternoon, now down to 5. Brr. Not March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Been dumping good in Northern NM this month and another 1 to 2 feet today will make this a very good late winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 4 hours ago, aggiegeog said: Been dumping good in Northern NM this month and another 1 to 2 feet today will make this a very good late winter. I’ve been jealousy watching the models crush Taos today and tonight from the east coast. Wouldn’t be surprised if 30+ by tomorrow. I’d love to be out there right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said: I’ve been jealousy watching the models crush Taos today and tonight from the east coast. Wouldn’t be surprised if 30+ by tomorrow. I’d love to be out there right now. If I wasn't so busy at work I'd happily trade my dusting I'll get tomorrow in Texas for a couple feet at my family's place south of Taos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Joy, another 3" snow up here from this last "storm". I wish I had been adding this up but have been too busy. Literally every single snow has been in the 3" range for the past couple of months. I wouldn't be surprised if I have racked up 24" or so in these series of events. We are heading into big dump season, so hopefully this changes thru April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finnster Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/9/2022 at 5:54 PM, raindancewx said: The widespread snow storm down here for 3/10-3/11 was signaled in late February with a huge low off Kamchatka. Nothing big since. https://twitter.com/NWSAlbuquerque/status/1501535829264584707/photo/2 Good to see Raindance posting again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 13, 2022 Author Share Posted March 13, 2022 So, the massive storm on the 18z GFS that we talked about on Monday March 7th was certainly a fantasy storm. However, we will have a quick-moving 500mb trough moving through on Thursday March 17th. Each model shows brief but heavy snow from Denver to Colorado Springs. Edit: 00z GFS has a lot of QPF for Denver area. So this is sure to taunt Mayjawintastawm when it doesn't work out right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 On 3/12/2022 at 7:52 PM, Chinook said: Edit: 00z GFS has a lot of QPF for Denver area. So this is sure to taunt Mayjawintastawm when it doesn't work out right. Technique: 1) ignore models more than 48 hours out unless they all agree; 2) cut QPF forecasted at 48 hrs pre-event in half. Easier said than done, but preserves mental health and wastes less time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 The semi-annual reminder that model runs are now an hour later with DST in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 14, 2022 Author Share Posted March 14, 2022 WPC still has quite a bit QPF for Wednesday-Thursday morning/afternoon, around Denver. It is possible that the first precipitation could be in the form of rain. The 500mb trough does not seem too large, but maybe the models see the atmosphere has just enough moisture to give out, in kind of a short time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 NAM is now in range and it sees a juicy storm, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 15, 2022 Author Share Posted March 15, 2022 6 hours ago, smokeybandit said: NAM is now in range and it sees a juicy storm, too. The 00z NAM/GFS/Canadian really do like the Palmer Divide, Colorado Springs, and most of the foothills above 7000ft. GFS has over 15" above 7000ft west of Denver. Maybe the models have figured out a few more aspects of the storm, maybe not. As for me, I believe I've gotten 39.5" since December 31st and 0.5" before December 31st. (3.10" since Dec 31st and 0.14" from Nov 1st-Dec 30th). Much of the snow that is in the shade has melted. The snow that has been in the shade for all this time is crusty snow that has been there since December 31st. Many individual days were snowy without a complete melt when it was 50-60 degrees, at least for very shady areas or small hills facing away from the sun. It's really nice to see some blue skies and 55 degrees. Unfortunately, we can still say this late winter has still been drought/weak winter for western areas. And, by the way, this is the one-year anniversary of the blizzard, when many of us got 20" of snow, blizzard conditions existed for many areas, and the water content was absolutely impressive, over 3" at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 GFS keeps taunting us with something big. This Tuesday wave is a bit closer than fantasy range, low pressure placement will be key. From what I can tell (and have read), the Euro keeps the low tracking too far south/east for the Denver metro. Something more to watch if we can really get one of these March waves to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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