Mountain West Discussion

[smokeybandit]

Looks like a real nice week of snow for the mountains but not much east of the foothills

[mayjawintastawm]

We'll see. Models are pretty consistent with about 0.6" QPF for the metro area... of course that's worth about a nickel this far out, maybe.

[Chinook]

We should get some snow with the arctic air mass on Monday night to possibly Tuesday, and then another, perhaps separate storm on Wednesday.

[ValpoVike]

12 hours ago, Chinook said:

We should get some snow with the arctic air mass on Monday night to possibly Tuesday, and then another, perhaps separate storm on Wednesday.

I hope so.  Last week I thought the 3" limit would finally be breached up here...I ended up with 2".  This looks a tad more promising.

I did read yesterday in the Denver Post that Denver has had it's snowiest start on record since the New Year.  Can this really be true?

[Chinook]

6 hours ago, ValpoVike said:

I hope so.  Last week I thought the 3" limit would finally be breached up here...I ended up with 2".  This looks a tad more promising.

I did read yesterday in the Denver Post that Denver has had it's snowiest start on record since the New Year.  Can this really be true?

NOWdata graph says 24.9" compared to record for 25.9" for January 1st to February 19th or 20th.

 

The WPC prediction for one week (168hr) has up to 1.5" to 2.1"+ QPF for some of the mountains, especially west, like in the San Juans. This is the first time we have seen this for a while

[ValpoVike]

Yeah looks good...and it's right on track with March around the corner. 

[Chinook]

I guess we will call this the Monday-Tuesday storm. Models vary on when the first snow bands will get into Larimer/Boulder counties. 

 

Tonight Canada has wind chills below -45F. I believe Environment Canada has some sort of different formula for wind chill, maybe? 

[smokeybandit]

This will be a frustrating storm east of 25. Cold and cloudy for several days, yet little snow

[Chinook]

My area went from maybe 55-60 degrees at 2:00 or 3:00PM yesterday to 12 degrees at 6:30PM tonight with a few snowflakes this evening so far.

[IowaStorm05]

How much more snow would Reno, NV get than the 20-40 inches per year the greater metro area normally receives... if you took a huge chain saw and shaved 1000 feet off the top of the Sierra crest for the length of the mountains?

I wish there was a big and active forum here for specific western regions, but I guess there aren't enough people living out there to have the congregation of the New England forum I am a part of out here.

[Chinook]

It's 2 degrees, with some unexpected light snow at 3:00 and 5:00PM. Just drove home at 8:00 with some very light snow rates and 1/4" on the road. Almost nothing was on the radar at 3:00 and 5:00. I guess that's just what happens at 5 degrees, snow just happens with nothing on radar. I think we have effectively started out storm #2, as the radar does show some 5 dBz - 10dBz snow across the area. We have a rare wind chill advisory, outside of Denver. See NWS-Boulder web page for further information (no winter weather advisory at this time.)

[mayjawintastawm]

I think I have not encountered this prolonged cold, cloudy, light snow type of thing in my 11 years in Colorado. It's been below 10 F for almost 48 hours and we've had 1.4" of styrofoam snow with vanishingly small water equivalent. Even the dogs don't want to spend more than a few minutes outside. Good for ice reinforcement on the lake but not much else.

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

I think I have not encountered this prolonged cold, cloudy, light snow type of thing in my 11 years in Colorado. It's been below 10 F for almost 48 hours and we've had 1.4" of styrofoam snow with vanishingly small water equivalent. Even the dogs don't want to spend more than a few minutes outside. Good for ice reinforcement on the lake but not much else.

Not directed at you…but I have always found it interesting that a lot of people on this forum (in various regions) want snow, but not cold. I would understand this among the general public, but it’s strange on this forum since most people here look forward to winter. 
 

But to me, you can’t really have a meaningful winter season (landscape, frozen ponds, reliable snow cover, etc.) without cold. Actual liquid precip averages during the cold season really don’t matter that much in the end. 
 

I’m thinking of making a post in the Lakes/OV forum about the concept of “sacred” winter days. In other words, if you were dropped into a town on a specific calendar date (say Feb 5th), would you be able to count on the fact that it would look and feel like winter? This means a 90% chance of a high temp of 35F or lower AND 2”+ snow cover on a specific date. No anxiety about the weather pattern being a certain way, etc.; you just know it will be wintry outside, in line with what it’s supposed to be because the calendar says it’s winter! 
 

Sure, you could have an anomalous pattern every so often (like March 2012)…which is why I am only using a 90% threshold instead of 100%.

Sadly, nearly all non-mountainous locations in the lower 48 south of 44N have zero sacred winter calendar dates! There is a huge gradient of this metric across the upper Midwest…as far northern MN probably has close to 100 sacred winter calendar dates…whereas southern WI has zero. 
 

For example - in Chicago, the coldest calendar dates in the year (mid-Jan) only have a 65% chance of a high temp 35F or colder. Adding the 2” snow cover condition reduces the % even more. So, it falls well short of the 90% threshold. And in early Feb, temps start warming up, even as there’s a somewhat higher chance of 2” snow cover…but then we just run out of time as the winter season fades away later in February. 
 

For a winter lover (not just individual storms, but the tenor of the season) living in areas with more plentiful job prospects, it’s difficult and sad to accept. I like seasons in seasons - we can always count on July and August (at a minimum) to be summerlike, but we can’t count on any dates in winter to be winter-like. And highs in the 30s and 40s with bare ground isn’t winter, no matter what some believe. 

[ValpoVike]

23 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

For a winter lover (not just individual storms, but the tenor of the season) living in areas with more plentiful job prospects, it’s difficult and sad to accept. I like seasons in seasons - we can always count on July and August (at a minimum) to be summerlike, but we can’t count on any dates in winter to be winter-like. And highs in the 30s and 40s with bare ground isn’t winter, no matter what some believe. 

Well, Colorado isn't Chicago and our winters feature snow with cold (but reasonable) temperatures.  It's what you're used to and of course a matter of personal preference.  I left NW Indiana 7 years ago and never looked back, largely due to the long stretches of sub-zero cold and the relentless cloud cover.  But I digress.

[beavis1729]

9 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

Well, Colorado isn't Chicago and our winters feature snow with cold (but reasonable) temperatures.  It's what you're used to and of course a matter of personal preference.  I left NW Indiana 7 years ago and never looked back, largely due to the long stretches of sub-zero cold and the relentless cloud cover.  But I digress.

Interesting that you think Chicago and NW IN have cold winters. 

My whole point was that their winters aren't nearly cold enough - and this is because you can't count on snow on the ground throughout most of DJF. You basically need average high temps in Jan to be 20-25F (and Dec & Feb with averages no warmer than 25-30F) in order to have a true wintry climate with consistent snow cover.  That way, when you do get the occasional mild pattern, you don't torch (meaning no days over 40F).

Not saying there needs to be 4 feet of snow on the ground...but a reliable 5-10+" would be nice during most of DJF.  You know - Currier and Ives scenes, White Christmas, frozen lakes, etc.

Unfortunately, Chicago's winter temps are about 10 degrees too warm for that. 

Also, I wouldn't say we have "long stretches of sub-zero cold".  Chicago only averages about 7 days each winter with low temps below zero.

Yes, I agree that it's all personal preference...but it just surprises me that people on a (mainly) winter weather forum seem to prefer mild/warm/hot weather over cold weather. It's frustrating for me personally because I hope to find kindred spirits on this forum...knowing that most of the general public hates winter.  

[ValpoVike]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Interesting that you think Chicago and NW IN have cold winters. 

My whole point was that their winters aren't nearly cold enough - and this is because you can't count on snow on the ground throughout most of DJF. You basically need average high temps in Jan to be 20-25F (and Dec & Feb with averages no warmer than 25-30F) in order to have a true wintry climate with consistent snow cover.  That way, when you do get the occasional mild pattern, you don't torch (meaning no days over 40F).

Not saying there needs to be 4 feet of snow on the ground...but a reliable 5-10+" would be nice during most of DJF.  You know - Currier and Ives scenes, White Christmas, frozen lakes, etc.

Unfortunately, Chicago's winter temps are about 10 degrees too warm for that. 

Also, I wouldn't say we have "long stretches of sub-zero cold".  Chicago only averages about 7 days each winter with low temps below zero.

Yes, I agree that it's all personal preference...but it just surprises me that people on a (mainly) winter weather forum seem to prefer mild/warm/hot weather over cold weather. It's frustrating for me personally because I hope to find kindred spirits on this forum...knowing that most of the general public hates winter.  

Man, I will say without any hesitation that it is indeed cold as hell in the Chicago area for my liking.  I will concede that it is not forever lasting like perhaps Minneapolis, but I remember very vividly about 12 years ago when it was -30 one morning in Valpo and the entire week wasn't much better.  About 9 years ago I recall -23 and many burst pipes in a region that actually designs homes to withstand frosted pipes.  That is crazy cold, and I even did the "throw the boiling water into the air" trick with my kids

I personally like both snow season and summer.  Note that I didn't say winter because up where I live, we can get 3' or greater snowfall in mid-May and the next day hit 70 degrees.  Gotta love that!  But my personal favorite is Monsoon season and watching lightning filled anvils form over the plains.  It is an amazing sight from the perspective of my elevation.

Regarding Currier and Ives, we kind of have that.  However, it is highly subject to where your house is situated.  My house is on a south facing slope and snow melts very quickly due to the sun.  But literally my actual neighbor, 300' below me, is on the river and shaded by a mountain and he has had constant snow cover on his property since mid-December.  Even with temps around 50 it doesn't melt much until the sun hits it.  He'll be back in the sun sometime in March.

[mayjawintastawm]

8 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Interesting that you think Chicago and NW IN have cold winters. 

My whole point was that their winters aren't nearly cold enough - and this is because you can't count on snow on the ground throughout most of DJF. You basically need average high temps in Jan to be 20-25F (and Dec & Feb with averages no warmer than 25-30F) in order to have a true wintry climate with consistent snow cover.  That way, when you do get the occasional mild pattern, you don't torch (meaning no days over 40F).

Not saying there needs to be 4 feet of snow on the ground...but a reliable 5-10+" would be nice during most of DJF.  You know - Currier and Ives scenes, White Christmas, frozen lakes, etc.

Unfortunately, Chicago's winter temps are about 10 degrees too warm for that. 

Also, I wouldn't say we have "long stretches of sub-zero cold".  Chicago only averages about 7 days each winter with low temps below zero.

Yes, I agree that it's all personal preference...but it just surprises me that people on a (mainly) winter weather forum seem to prefer mild/warm/hot weather over cold weather. It's frustrating for me personally because I hope to find kindred spirits on this forum...knowing that most of the general public hates winter.  

Agree- actually, my perfect winter would have around 100 inches of snow total, temps reliably in the 20s-30s most days 12/1-2/28 (of course, some 60 and some 0) to make for good ice on the lakes, and sunny more often than not. But the last couple days here have been brutal, with highs not above 10 and lows in the single numbers below zero with minimal sun. Late Feb is not typically the heart of winter either.... this on MLK weekend would be easier to take.

Having a new puppy at home who is not yet housebroken does not help.  Volunteers for 2AM potty breaks welcome.

[Chinook]

my observations from this annoying storm
feb 21-22: 0.5"  (0.04") record low maximum temp for Fort Collins
feb 22-23: 1.2" (0.12") Loveland storm reports showed 1.5 to 4.0",  record low maximum temp at Fort Collins
feb 23-34: 1.6", (0.13")
feb 24- still, just temperatures in the teens

[Chinook]

100 hours below freezing? What is this? It's hard to do this so close to the Spring Equinox, really.

 

 

[mayjawintastawm]

20 hours ago, Chinook said:

my observations from this annoying storm
feb 21-22: 0.5"  (0.04") record low maximum temp for Fort Collins
feb 22-23: 1.2" (0.12") Loveland storm reports showed 1.5 to 4.0",  record low maximum temp at Fort Collins
feb 23-34: 1.6", (0.13")
feb 24- still, just temperatures in the teens

yeah- we got as low as -6, were below zero 3 mornings, and totaled a whopping 2.7" of snow. Today it finally got up to 31.

[ValpoVike]

4 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

yeah- we got as low as -6, were below zero 3 mornings, and totaled a whopping 2.7" of snow. Today it finally got up to 31.

Sorry to hear that. From your reports, it sounds like a dreaded screw hole has cursed you this season.

[smokeybandit]

2.7" is about what I got, too. I haven't been above freezing since Monday afternoon.

[mayjawintastawm]

8 hours ago, ValpoVike said:

Sorry to hear that. From your reports, it sounds like a dreaded screw hole has cursed you this season.

Actually, we're not doing too bad though the last couple weeks has been really dry. So far in Feb we have 17.7" for a season total of 34.4", with March and April yet to go. Conservatively, I'm guessing we'll wind up with about 45", less than normal of 55-60", probably 3rd or 4th lowest of our 12 winters here.

[snowfan789]

On 2/23/2022 at 9:43 PM, mayjawintastawm said:

Agree- actually, my perfect winter would have around 100 inches of snow total, temps reliably in the 20s-30s most days 12/1-2/28 (of course, some 60 and some 0) to make for good ice on the lakes, and sunny more often than not. But the last couple days here have been brutal, with highs not above 10 and lows in the single numbers below zero with minimal sun. Late Feb is not typically the heart of winter either.... this on MLK weekend would be easier to take.

Having a new puppy at home who is not yet housebroken does not help.  Volunteers for 2AM potty breaks welcome.

That “ideal” winter weather pretty much exactly describes what seems to be typical where I now live, in the mountains at about 7000’ near Glenwood Springs. Personally, much prefer the weather here to the Front Range (fairly reliable snow cover from December thru March), though even Front Range at least along and west of I25 is way better from a snow lovers’ perspective than 90%+ of where most people live in the U.S. We have more way reliable/consistent four seasons here. Even so, nearly all of January and the first half of February was almost oppressively unrelentingly sunny and dry. Snow just didn’t melt that much because of consistent chill (not really that cold however). If you really love snow but don’t love cold and like CO, seems as though somewhere like Clark, CO might be your dream spot. Lots of CO, even many near-mountain spots, seems vulnerable to extended periods of dryness.

[smokeybandit]

So after 6 days below freezing, now we get a week of temps in the 50/60s.  Then snow after that.

 

Gotta love Colorado winters

[Chinook]

This represents Sunday Feb 20th to Saturday Feb 26th, which should be one of the coldest 1-week anomalies between now and next winter.

As for the models tonight, the GFS/Canadian/UKMET have a short period of rain/snow for us next weekend, as I believe they are keeping a lot of the upper trough energy to the north. We may have to check back on these things in a couple of days. I think there may be snow at some point down the line.

[mayjawintastawm]

On 2/10/2022 at 3:13 PM, PWMan said:

Heading out to Bozeman, MT on the 19th for a few days of skiing at Bridger and Big Sky, and I'm definitely getting concerned about the warmth and lack of snow. A week or two it looked like the pattern was going to shift, but now it appears that any cool-downs will be transient and any precipitation minimal. I'm committed either way, and am hoping it's not too much of a bust.

so- was it cold enough for ya? How was the snow?

[Polarbear]

On 2/23/2022 at 6:00 PM, ValpoVike said:

Man, I will say without any hesitation that it is indeed cold as hell in the Chicago area for my liking.  I will concede that it is not forever lasting like perhaps Minneapolis, but I remember very vividly about 12 years ago when it was -30 one morning in Valpo and the entire week wasn't much better.  About 9 years ago I recall -23 and many burst pipes in a region that actually designs homes to withstand frosted pipes.  That is crazy cold, and I even did the "throw the boiling water into the air" trick with my kids

I personally like both snow season and summer.  Note that I didn't say winter because up where I live, we can get 3' or greater snowfall in mid-May and the next day hit 70 degrees.  Gotta love that!  But my personal favorite is Monsoon season and watching lightning filled anvils form over the plains.  It is an amazing sight from the perspective of my elevation.

Regarding Currier and Ives, we kind of have that.  However, it is highly subject to where your house is situated.  My house is on a south facing slope and snow melts very quickly due to the sun.  But literally my actual neighbor, 300' below me, is on the river and shaded by a mountain and he has had constant snow cover on his property since mid-December.  Even with temps around 50 it doesn't melt much until the sun hits it.  He'll be back in the sun sometime in March.

I was out in looking into woodland park and then up in Boulder in early September . While I was a bit disappointed in woodland park, we stayed just north of town up in some hills. On our last night, a storm rolled in to our south and it was amazing to watch it roll in over the mountains and seeing the lightning down in town. Also some strikes it seemed like we were actually above the clouds/lightning. Was really cool to watch that he or so.

[Chinook]

NWS-Cheyenne posted that a few high temperature records were broken or tied yesterday in that area.

The first part of the storm, most of Saturday, has a chance some snow with perhaps some rain and snow showers early in the storm, possibly some accumulation below 6000ft

The second part of the storm from Sunday to Monday should give us a much better chance of accumulating snow over 3"

[Chinook]

WPC predictions for both parts of the storm. The overall storm will be moderately helpful for the Western states. It's possible that not all of the 0.7" will be in the form of snow for Fort Collins.