Chinook Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 This is the new thread for discussing events in the Mountain West. Looks like ABQ got 0.40" of rain last night, plus more for the Sandia mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 September finished slightly wetter than average here with the rains yesterday. Tentative precipitation analogs for Albuquerque, based on July-Sept objective matches are 1950, 1954, 1974, 1983, 2004 as a blend. That's a pretty mixed period for Oct-May - with some dry and some wet months. Matching on the wet September definitely moved the matches to wetter for Oct-May. The GFS still has a major low south of Kamchatka on 10/2 in the evening. Have to watch 10/19-10/23 in our area for something pretty big. That's actually pretty close to one of the recurring wet-periods locally (10/18 would be 46 days or so after the remnants of Nora, which followed the mid July and early June rains, and so on). The rain yesterday also followed at a 46-day lag from the mid-Aug and early July and late May rains here. The WPO doesn't flip phases super often, so could be in for a good pattern for a while. The historic snows last October down to Mexico were also fairly close to the 10/19-10/23 time-frame, but the setup looks pretty different even this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 For my area, it was mainly 4.0 degrees F above average, to possibly 5 degrees above average according to this chart. I believe it was the 2nd warmest September for Fort Collins, and 3rd warmest for Denver. In my opinion, it's an extension of the drought in the north and west this summer. Also, the ridge in the West seems to be a teleconnection with the average trough in the Gulf of Alaska in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 4, 2021 Author Share Posted October 4, 2021 mini-rainy season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 4, 2021 Author Share Posted October 4, 2021 On 10/1/2021 at 6:49 PM, raindancewx said: September finished slightly wetter than average here with the rains yesterday. Tentative precipitation analogs for Albuquerque, based on July-Sept objective matches are 1950, 1954, 1974, 1983, 2004 as a blend. That's a pretty mixed period for Oct-May - with some dry and some wet months. Matching on the wet September definitely moved the matches to wetter for Oct-May. The GFS still has a major low south of Kamchatka on 10/2 in the evening. Have to watch 10/19-10/23 in our area for something pretty big. That's actually pretty close to one of the recurring wet-periods locally (10/18 would be 46 days or so after the remnants of Nora, which followed the mid July and early June rains, and so on). The rain yesterday also followed at a 46-day lag from the mid-Aug and early July and late May rains here. The WPO doesn't flip phases super often, so could be in for a good pattern for a while. The historic snows last October down to Mexico were also fairly close to the 10/19-10/23 time-frame, but the setup looks pretty different even this far out. This seems intriguing. Perhaps 10/9 might be an interesting day to see what the ensemble averages have for 10/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Been keeping an eye out for some purple and pink in the NWS map for the lower 48. WWA for the Yosemite, CA area: Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Hanford CA 128 PM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021 CAZ323-080430- /O.NEW.KHNX.WW.Y.0009.211008T1200Z-211009T0000Z/ Yosemite NP outside of the valley- 128 PM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 7000 feet. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Yosemite NP outside of the valley. * WHEN...From 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult in these areas due to slippery and snow covered roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ BSO Snippets from the Reno AFD: Quote System for this afternoon and Friday remains on track with the potential for the first round of snow in the Sierra near and above 8000 feet. Meanwhile, showers and a couple thunderstorms may kick off over western NV this afternoon as instability increases with the approaching low. Best timing for heavier rain/high elevation snow is late tonight into Friday morning as the forcing mechanisms cross into Nevada. Precipitation chances will continue into Friday afternoon with most activity over Pershing, Churchill, and Mineral Counties. ... Snow levels should remain near 8000 feet as the precipitation band moves into the Sierra. Simulations are leaning towards 2-4 inches of snow with localized areas of 6 inches along the Mono County crest if everything comes together. CalTrans is raising travel restrictions for the High Sierra passes this afternoon, main snow impact is to hikers/campers in the backcountry. Rainfall totals across western NV should range from 0.10 to 0.40 inch, with localized amounts near and above 0.50 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 On 10/3/2021 at 7:01 PM, Chinook said: This seems intriguing. Perhaps 10/9 might be an interesting day to see what the ensemble averages have for 10/19 GFS is starting to show something way out at +384, which is a few days later...around the 22nd, with highest impact for NM. It will be interesting to watch this one as we move out of fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 GFS in midseason form with some of its insane snow totals the last couple runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2021 Author Share Posted October 8, 2021 5 hours ago, smokeybandit said: GFS in midseason form with some of its insane snow totals the last couple runs hey, King Euro had some fantasy snow for me, for one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2021 Author Share Posted October 8, 2021 NWS-WPC 168-hr precip map expecting up to 1" to 1.5" of QPF for western Colorado, and also including upper Larimer County, and 1.0"-2.0" for Wyoming, so possibly high-impact snowfall for areas up near Casper, WY. And, of course, the first snow storm for Colorado for the season, certainly above 6000-7000 ft for the west and central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 9 Oct 2021 1012.98 1009.70 2.51 10.87 9.55 8 Oct 2021 1014.42 1009.50 13.08 11.04 9.69 That supports something around 10/19. Have to see if it drops again tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 10, 2021 Author Share Posted October 10, 2021 Believe it or not, this is an oak tree. Many of the cottonwoods haven't changed to bright yellow yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Just a few more days of color to go up here, but I did capture this yesterday looking down from my deck to the North Fork of the Big Thompson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 11, 2021 Author Share Posted October 11, 2021 might as well post this. NWS point forecasts for RMNP have 4"-8" at high elevations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Chinook said: might as well post this. NWS point forecasts for RMNP have 4"-8" at high elevations Nice little early snowstorm for my backyard in Central WY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 12, 2021 Author Share Posted October 12, 2021 Interesting weather note this evening. The upper level low over the Southwest is bringing in so much wind, the flags are flying at Dodger Stadium, the likes of which I've almost never seen for a southern California baseball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 We had 20 minutes of heavy snow and lots of lightning up here this evening. Love these October squall like conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Areas affected...Portions of eastern WY...the extreme western NE Panhandle...the far western Dakotas...and southeastern into east-central MT Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 130958Z - 131600Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall, with rates around 1-1.5 inches per hour, should occur this morning. Near-blizzard conditions are also possible with strong/gusty winds. DISCUSSION...A mature mid/upper-level cyclone evident on water vapor satellite imagery will continue to eject northeastward across the central/northern High Plains this morning. A deformation band on the back side of the cyclone is beginning to fill in as low/mid-level frontogenetic forcing increases. Current expectations are that a mostly north-south oriented band of moderate to heavy snow will develop over parts of eastern WY/MT into the western Dakotas over the next few hours this morning, and gradually shift northward with time. Even though low-level temperatures are marginal (generally 28-33 degrees F), strong cooling aloft associated with the upper low should support snow as the main precipitation type. Lift through the saturated dendritic-growth layer and consensus of latest high-resolution guidance both suggest snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hours will likely be common, with locally greater rates possible. Finally, near-blizzard conditions with reduced visibilities should also occur across this region, as a strong pressure gradient and gusty winds will exist on the back side of a surface low that will develop northward from NE into central SD this morning. Indeed, blizzard conditions have recently been reported at KDGW in eastern WY. ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 13, 2021 Author Share Posted October 13, 2021 21 hours ago, ValpoVike said: We had 20 minutes of heavy snow and lots of lightning up here this evening. Love these October squall like conditions. My area had a few minutes of rain, graupel, and lightning, and even thunder somewhat close by. Then, today turned out to be pretty nice, not too windy like Cheyenne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finnster Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Our area (Bellvue vicinity) also had 10 minutes or so of rain the other night, but it was over all too soon. That has been the case going back to late May - I don’t think we’ve had a single precipitation event since then that has been over a quarter-inch or so. We missed the monsoon showers that were good to the south, and now storms are tracking to the north (Wyo & SD just got dumped on). We seem to be in no-mans land in between. Now a bonafide La Niña pattern seems to be getting established - those typically do not bode well for the front range as far as beneficial moisture. We mainly get wind. The northern mountains can do well with snow though. We’ll just have to see. My wife have been traveling around quite a bit the past few months in CO, WY, and SD. I don’t need to tell anyone this, but it is so dry out there - reservoirs are WAY down and streams in many cases are all but dried up. It will take a sustained, very wet period to restore fresh water supplies, that’s for sure. And to start healing all the forest fire damage from the past two decades…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Got our first snowflakes of the season, but just too little too fast to even attempt to accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Today marks the 1 year anniversary of Cameron Peak making it's final big run (and the start of my 3 week evacuation), as well as the start of the East Troublesome fire. What a difference a year makes. We actually had a decent monsoon up here this year, which was very fortunate as we were trending the same direction as last year before it kicked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finnster Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 16 hours ago, ValpoVike said: Today marks the 1 year anniversary of Cameron Peak making it's final big run (and the start of my 3 week evacuation), as well as the start of the East Troublesome fire. What a difference a year makes. We actually had a decent monsoon up here this year, which was very fortunate as we were trending the same direction as last year before it kicked in. Yea we were evacuated for a week a year ago as well. I feel like our immediate area is as dry as last summer but fortunately no fires (most everything around has burned already ). it’s interesting that as the crow flies we’re not far from Glen Haven but have missed the summer precipitation you were fortunate to get…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 55 minutes ago, finnster said: Yea we were evacuated for a week a year ago as well. I feel like our immediate area is as dry as last summer but fortunately no fires (most everything around has burned already ). it’s interesting that as the crow flies we’re not far from Glen Haven but have missed the summer precipitation you were fortunate to get…. It was a mixed blessing. We had 13 flash flood warnings during the Monsoon season, due to the burn scars. Are you up near Horsetooth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 mountains partially clouded (Wednesday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finnster Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 On 10/15/2021 at 9:23 AM, ValpoVike said: It was a mixed blessing. We had 13 flash flood warnings during the Monsoon season, due to the burn scars. Are you up near Horsetooth? Yes we’re west of the north end of Horsetooth, right next to Lory State Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 17, 2021 Author Share Posted October 17, 2021 Here are some more maple leafs. Well, not Toronto Maple Leafs. 2nd picture: ash. 3rd picture: some type of bush where the leaves resemble maple leaves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 18, 2021 Author Share Posted October 18, 2021 On 10/9/2021 at 12:47 PM, raindancewx said: Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 9 Oct 2021 1012.98 1009.70 2.51 10.87 9.55 8 Oct 2021 1014.42 1009.50 13.08 11.04 9.69 That supports something around 10/19. Have to see if it drops again tonight. It's now 10/17. And Raindance was... right. A compact 500mb low is cutting off right now near the Sierra Nevada, and will track through Wyoming, bringing snow to some areas of the Sierra Nevada to Wyoming. Winter storm watch for some areas of Wyoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 It's forecast to be a 999 mb low at the surface on one of the models I saw. Not too bad really. I think with the PDO so negative at the moment a lot of these "Bering Sea" translations are going to be somewhat north of where they would be normally in the West, although the jet shifts south with time. From the local NWS - Strong winds aloft rounding the base of an eastward moving upper low, currently over south central NV, will overtake our area tonight into Tuesday morning as the low continues east into CO. Breezy to windy conditions are developing across our area ahead of the upper low, as a lee side trough deepens to 999mb at the surface. My matching precipitation analogs to each month of July-June 2020-21 in Albuquerque did pretty well for the monsoon (I created a blend that was within 0.2 inches of observed precipitation each month for an entire year, and rolled it forward). Will be curious to see how that continues or breaks. Years included 1937-38 for 2020-21, so 1938 had the hurricane hit on New England, similar to this year. Have to see if I can find the image I have of that blend somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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