mappy Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 sun is trying to come out up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Solid rain all day so far down here eastern Waynesboro and along Afton.... Western Albemarle as well... At times it has been rather heavy... River gauges are starting to respond now as well...Warm tropical feel outside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Drizzle all day in Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Nice rain shower in last 2 hours here, not quite .25 inch fell. A very soupy 70.3/69.4 airmass out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 68 and been cloudy all day here. I'll take it. Sunday looks semi interesting with a high to the northeast and a low off the SE coast. Looks like some stiff east winds and coolish esp further east. Models disagree on rain chances, with Euro and CMC favoring some light to moderate rain for eastern third of the area while the GFS not much to see other than clouds and drizzle. ICON is sort of in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Gloomy and muggy lately. If summer is over then just bring on the crisp air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Gloomy and muggy lately. If summer is over then just bring on the crisp air Yeah, so humid. This weather is terrible. Give me 60's and low 70's with a cool breeze and no humidity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 It's out of control down here. When I come home from work in the evening I have to step out of my car and walk down my driveway before I drive down to scare off all the frogs and toads camped out on it. All this humidity has made them drunk on power. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Today felt pretty good. Took the kids to the Baltimore Zoo on Sunday and it was hot walking around in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 The clouds and no rain is kinda annoying after a while. Only positive is it keeps things cooler 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 I love straight up cloudy days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 62 for the low this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Blah... LWX AFD from this afternoon seems to suggest weekend could be terrible The pattern for Saturday remains uncertain at this time as it will be heavily dependent on a coastal low off the Carolina coast. Models have differing solution with the GFS keeping a strong high pressure / upper ridge over the NE US which prevents the coastal low from moving northward toward our region. On the other hand, the Euro is weaker with the high and allows the low to bring areas of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation to parts of our region. General trends have pushed precipitation to the late Saturday and into Sunday period with areas around and below DC experiencing the heaviest precipitation. The threat for flooding has increased especially if the coastal low shifts closer to the coast with flooding most likely to occur if the heaviest rain occurs over our metro areas. There is the possibility that our region remains mostly dry this weekend especially if the GFS solution comes true. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler in the 70s with overnight lows in upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Come Sunday, guidance continues to diverge on how it handles an upper level trough across the Eastern Seaboard. Guidance varies in developing an upper level low and a coastal low along a surface trough. The potential surface low is being monitored by the NHC for potential tropical development off the SE US coast (see nhc.noaa.gov for the latest). Regardless if this system officially becomes named a tropical system, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible Sunday mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Impacts are highly dependent on the track of the surface low, and considerable uncertainty remains. Regardless, if the low moves nearby, it should be out of the area by Sunday night with dry weather returning early next week as upper level ridging builds across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Still quite a bit of disparity between the models on the late Sat into Sun period. GFS has not waivered on the idea of 'not much to see here'. ICON and CMC, and to some degree the Euro, have trended its way. My hunch is there will be some showers and drizzle here and there with any significant rain staying pretty far south and east towards the lower Delmarva and eastern VA. Mount Holly's latest take- Complex and challenging forecast evolution during this period as the blocking pattern continues to evolve. The main players will be 1) a strong high building south over the Canadian Maritimes pushing an backdoor cold front through the region Friday night, 2) a slowly developing area of low pressure off the SE US coast, and 3) an upper level trough ejecting out of the western CONUS which will act to de-amplify and lift northward the upper level low currently over the midwest. At least some of the energy from this upper level low may split off and end up feeding into the low off the SE coast. Ultimately, how these features all interact will determine how this coastal low develops through the weekend and unfortunately that is still not certain. That said, latest runs of the ECMWF and GEM Regional have backed off a bit compared to the 0z runs of these models. However these models still bring the system farther north bringing more in the way of rain into the area for Sunday compared to the NAM and GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 DCA hit 80F again. Endless summer continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 I am not a fan of these earlier sunsets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 From Mount Holly this morning.. Model guidance has trended towards what the GFS has been advertising with this system, with tonight`s EC run essentially moving all the way in line with what has been the GFS solution. This means the center of the surface low and its associated heavy precipitation should stay pretty well south of us. This will spare us from a heavy rain event and any hydro or wind concerns. However, we will still have a vertically deep layer of onshore flow, and there will also be a long fetch of easterly flow over the waters which will help push a lot of moisture from over the ocean onshore. This will result in an extended period of mostly cloudy to overcast conditions. With the coastal low staying further south, there will not be much forcing to "wring out" the moisture, preventing much in the way of steady rain. Instead, scattered showers and drizzle will probably be more favored, especially on Saturday. By Saturday night and Sunday, some steadier but still mainly light rain will become more likely, especially in southern and eastern portions of the area, as the coastal low moves a little closer. Overall, grey and gloomy will probably be the best way to describe most of the weekend. It seems the GFS has been "winning" a lot lately. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 58 minutes ago, CAPE said: From Mount Holly this morning.. Model guidance has trended towards what the GFS has been advertising with this system, with tonight`s EC run essentially moving all the way in line with what has been the GFS solution. This means the center of the surface low and its associated heavy precipitation should stay pretty well south of us. This will spare us from a heavy rain event and any hydro or wind concerns. However, we will still have a vertically deep layer of onshore flow, and there will also be a long fetch of easterly flow over the waters which will help push a lot of moisture from over the ocean onshore. This will result in an extended period of mostly cloudy to overcast conditions. With the coastal low staying further south, there will not be much forcing to "wring out" the moisture, preventing much in the way of steady rain. Instead, scattered showers and drizzle will probably be more favored, especially on Saturday. By Saturday night and Sunday, some steadier but still mainly light rain will become more likely, especially in southern and eastern portions of the area, as the coastal low moves a little closer. Overall, grey and gloomy will probably be the best way to describe most of the weekend. It seems the GFS has been "winning" a lot lately. It’s been pretty remarkable from our weather to the tropics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 9 hours ago, pazzo83 said: DCA hit 80F again. Endless summer continues. If you believe the CFS weeklies and NMME monthlies, there's a lot more where that came from. Very little snowcover build over NA this month and our source region for cold air remains quite warm, so even the cooldowns will be more of a reversion closer to the mean rather than any significant negative departures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 1 hour ago, csnavywx said: If you believe the CFS weeklies and NMME monthlies, there's a lot more where that came from. Very little snowcover build over NA this month and our source region for cold air remains quite warm, so even the cooldowns will be more of a reversion closer to the mean rather than any significant negative departures. The 2m temp anomaly chart on the GFS is basically a + from the mean for the entire 384 forecast, lol. I guess I'm okay with this in October? Going to Maine at the end of the month, it would be nice if it's not in the upper 30s there. But if we're pulling 60s through december and january... blegh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 BEAUTIFUL morning. Didn’t expect blue skies and sun this am. ️ 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Fog finally burning off to sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 8 hours ago, CAPE said: It seems the GFS has been "winning" a lot lately. Can we just rename it to Charlie Sheen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 WB 3K NAM. Not a flooding rain, but dreary Sunday appears to be on tap area wide; heavier rain along the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 9 hours ago, WeatherShak said: BEAUTIFUL morning. Didn’t expect blue skies and sun this am. ️ Great pic but your dog has that “jeez dad” look… 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Rotating east to west rains look to be closer to DC than forecasted yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Light drizzle, 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 This weather is so boring. I'd be happy with a rainy day at this point. Cloudy, warm and humid for weeks straight in October is kind of a bummer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: This weather is so boring. I'd be happy with a rainy day at this point. Cloudy, warm and humid for weeks straight in October is kind of a bummer. Looks like the stagnant summer-like pattern breaks down next weekend with a trough moving east as a ridge builds out west. If the GFS is correct next Sunday will be the start of a more Fall like period. The frontal passage produces maybe a few sprinkles in our area verbatim, with the energy passing further north and west. Might be the middle of the following week for the next chance of significant rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 3 hours ago, dailylurker said: This weather is so boring. I'd be happy with a rainy day at this point. Cloudy, warm and humid for weeks straight in October is kind of a bummer. This is really the most boring weather pattern this past month I can remember! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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