George BM Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 The final quarter of the new year starts off relatively cool and benign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 1, 2021 Author Share Posted October 1, 2021 IAD down to 48F so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Low of 45 in Reisterstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 44F. Another beautiful morning, as well as start to the best month of the year. Noticeable color starting to show out here. Hadn't realized that until this morning sitting outside on the patio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Low of 48F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Low of 49f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 another 48 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 43 KOKV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Low of 47F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Low of 46.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 A beautiful start to October, the first month of actual fall in the mid Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 46 this morning. Back to the more typical warmer than normal for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Fog again, 3rd or 4th morning in a row, little warmer this am at 48.5 compared to yesterday's 43.4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Just beautiful weather recently, especially the cool mornings. Precipitation-wise, according to CoCoRaHS, my annual average rainfall is 44.72”. This past water year (Oct 1 - Sep 30) I recorded 51.39”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Low of 45 in Reisterstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Time sensitive, but a surfer taking advantage of large swells in Ocean City this morning. https://oceancitylive.com/ocean-city-webcams/castle-in-the-sand/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Monday to Friday of next week looks terrible... rainy all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Monday to Friday of next week looks terrible... rainy all week Shower chances but not a washout, and also location dependent. Outside of a chance of thundershowers late Monday, doesn't look like much more than periods of light rain/drizzle here and there for most until maybe later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: Shower chances but not a washout, and also location dependent. Outside of a chance of thundershowers late Monday, doesn't look like much more than periods of light rain/drizzle here and there for most until maybe later in the week. LWX has 60 to 70 POPS each day... plus from LWX AFD .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main story in the extended will be potential for heavy rainfall sometime mid to late week. The latest 12Z deterministic guidance tends to support earlier 00/06Z ensemble trends of above normal moisture/precipitable water across the Mid-Atlantic. On Tuesday...a stalled frontal boundary across central Virginia into the Delmarva will keep a moist easterly flow into the area. Periods of rain especially east of the Blue Ridge are expected Tuesday into Wednesday. As upper low pressure drifts over the lower/middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday and Thursday, moisture continue to stream over the region...as surface high pressure over New England causes decent lower level moisture confluence into our region. This could lead to decent rainfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 12 hours ago, yoda said: LWX has 60 to 70 POPS each day... plus from LWX AFD .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main story in the extended will be potential for heavy rainfall sometime mid to late week. The latest 12Z deterministic guidance tends to support earlier 00/06Z ensemble trends of above normal moisture/precipitable water across the Mid-Atlantic. On Tuesday...a stalled frontal boundary across central Virginia into the Delmarva will keep a moist easterly flow into the area. Periods of rain especially east of the Blue Ridge are expected Tuesday into Wednesday. As upper low pressure drifts over the lower/middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday and Thursday, moisture continue to stream over the region...as surface high pressure over New England causes decent lower level moisture confluence into our region. This could lead to decent rainfall amounts. Like I said, location dependent. For central and esp eastern areas, looks like late week into next weekend will be the time period for chances of more significant rain. Different story for places to the west/sw, as they will be closer to the mid south upper low as it opens and moves NE. WPC QPF through day 5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Grey drizzly days. Just what I DO NOT want. Those are the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.salt Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Stormfly said: Grey drizzly days. Just what I DO NOT want. Those are the worst. Sounds like perfect fall weather to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 10 hours ago, a.salt said: Sounds like perfect fall weather to me! Yeah, if it actually felt like fall. It looks warm and humid to go with the damn conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Yeah, if it actually felt like fall. It looks warm and humid to go with the damn conditions. Yeah 75-80 with lows in the 60s is not exactly ideal Fall weather. Big picture looks like above normal going forward. As long as we can avoid 85-90 I guess we should be content lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah 75-80 with lows in the 60s is not exactly ideal Fall weather. Big picture looks like above normal going forward. As long as we can avoid 85-90 I guess we should be content lol. Another October cementing it's reputation as a rapidly warming month. No denying the trend. Some thought it would turn out cooler than normal, that's not going to happen. And yes, I am saying that knowing it's only the 3 rd of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 55 minutes ago, frd said: Another October cementing it's reputation as a rapidly warming month. No denying the trend. Some thought it would turn out cooler than normal, that's not going to happen. And yes, I am saying that knowing it's only the 3 rd of the month. Above average October is a pretty easy call given the look all the global ensembles are advertising. The CFS weeklies continue it for weeks 3 and 4, although the higher h5 heights begin to weaken over the east and build further west towards the end of the month. Maybe we get a cool start to November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Above average October is a pretty easy call given the look all the global ensembles are advertising. The CFS weeklies continue it for weeks 3 and 4, although the higher h5 heights begin to weaken over the east and build further west towards the end of the month. Maybe we get a cool start to November. 06z GFS was atrocious past Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Even the 00z Euro suggests a +10 to +15 surface temp anomaly at Day 10... yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: Above average October is a pretty easy call given the look all the global ensembles are advertising. The CFS weeklies continue it for weeks 3 and 4, although the higher h5 heights begin to weaken over the east and build further west towards the end of the month. Maybe we get a cool start to November. Yes, but some here say don't try to forecast past day 10. Because the forecast will be wrong. Hard to deny October warmth. ( and October humidity as well ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Seeing it green with flowers and highs in the 80s today with warmth all week (lows in the 60s!) it's hard to fathom that we got accumulating snow on 10-10-79. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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