NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[powderfreak]

I still can’t believe BTV has 10” here for this one.

18z EURO is even more paltry.  Gonna need some healthy ratios on some of these runs.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I still can’t believe BTV has 10” here for this one.

18z EURO is even more paltry.  Gonna need some healthy ratios on some of these runs.

I assume they and GYX are hedging for it to verify more north as they often do. Or they are riding the NAM for whatever reason. 

[klw]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.43” L.E.

 

Some models have been showing back side snow in our area from Winter Storm Nancy, but the signal wasn’t all that strong, so I hadn’t given it too much thought.  It definitely caught my attention this afternoon though.  There were a few flakes falling here and there in Burlington, but as I headed home westward into the mountains, the precipitation ramped up steadily.  Accumulations began to appear on the roads around Williston, and by the time I reached the Bolton area I encountered near whiteout conditions with snow-packed roads.  Here at the house, the intensity of the snow was enough that I had to put it down as “heavy snow”, since it was in excess of 1-2”/hr. while I was out making the 6:00 P.M. observations.

 

I ran into this as well.  Very harrowing, near whiteout.  The lowest speed I saw was about 25.  I was in the Prius which has no fog lights so it was very difficult to see where the lanes were at times.  Lines of cars developed because the one in front couldn't see bumpkus.  I passed a few and regretted it each time.  The wind was not helping either.  

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I assume they and GYX are hedging for it to verify more north as they often do. Or they are riding the NAM for whatever reason. 

There is some strong lift in the 500-600mb range and sometimes we do get those fluffy mid-level bands well north that drop 20:1 ratio snows.  It just seems like widespread 8-12” on the maps for this area over to you seems optimistic.

I rarely disagree with the NWS but here I sell a middle ground of 10”.  I like 4-8” and even that is assuming good ratios as all non-NAM models are like 0.30-0.50” from me to your area.  If that’s 8-10:1 sand instead of fluff, it’s a bust.

There are a lot of people thinking 10-12” is coming up here which makes me uneasy, ha.  Because if we get 5” they’ll be wondering what the hell happened, when in fact it looks like that’s been a decent chance the whole time.

[timp]

Roads were awful on the drive home. Snow had melted on the warmer roads and as soon the sun disappeared it was nothing but ice. Now down to 14° from a high of 57°. Let’s hope BTV is on to something with those accumulations! 

[PhineasC]

GYX sticking to their guns. They actually upped totals overnight. 

[PhineasC]

12z HRRR has 0.65" liquid here. That's healthy. Decent ratios can easily turn that into 8-10.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.44” L.E.

 

We’ve mostly cleared out, so the above totals should be the final numbers for Winter Storm Nancy at our site.  As others in the thread noted, the back side snow was surprisingly impactful for travel, and that impact is notable when one realizes that there were just a couple hundredths of an inch of liquid in there.  I did see some coatings still on the roads this morning, but much more impactful was the effect those big, fluffy flakes had on visibility.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0

Snow Density: 1.7% H2O

Temperature: 8.6 F

Sky: Mostly Clear

Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

[mreaves]

BTV has stayed pretty consistent

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

GYX sticking to their guns. They actually upped totals overnight. 

They have Farmington in the 5-9 range, same as MBY, but hedging - has kept our area in a watch while points south are warned.

Yesterday's temp gymnastics were the wildest since 2/2/76 in Ft Kent, when the temp dropped from 44 to -6 in 5 hours with winds gusting to 50+.  From foggy and 34° at 9:45 AM to 54 by noon and 56 (mildest in my 24 Februarys here) at 2 PM when the CF roared in, then to 36 by 4 and 18 by 9 PM.  My 49° plummet was 6° less than at IZG - same min of 7 but hit 62 yesterday.  Would not be surprised if my next stroll on the sled trail thru our woodlot discloses a few more fir lost to the 40 mph gusts as the temp plunged.

[PhineasC]

Pretty good agreement in the latest runs on 0.6" to 0.7" liquid here.

Given that, the GYX map is decent.

12" seems like a stretch but 6-10 is doable.

[mreaves]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Pretty good agreement in the latest runs on 0.6" to 0.7" liquid here.

Given that, the GYX map is decent.

12" seems like a stretch but 6-10 is doable.

As @dryslotalways says, that's pretty much the standard with these types of systems.  

[bwt3650]

With most of Vermont only on groomed snowmaking trails right now, I was checking the Mansfield stake data this morning to see how bad it really is right now.  It finally set in.  Since 1962, only 3 season had less snow at the stake on todays date and all 3 were within two inches.  Sixty seasons.  I know we’ll get some help tomorrow and next week, but wow. 

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

With most of Vermont only on groomed snowmaking trails right now, I was checking the Mansfield stake data this morning to see how bad it really is right now.  It finally set in.  Since 1962, only 3 season had less snow at the stake on todays date and all 3 were within two inches.  Sixty seasons.  I know we’ll get some help tomorrow and next week, but wow. 

Definitely bottom of the barrel.

[powderfreak]

52 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

With most of Vermont only on groomed snowmaking trails right now, I was checking the Mansfield stake data this morning to see how bad it really is right now.  It finally set in.  Since 1962, only 3 season had less snow at the stake on todays date and all 3 were within two inches.  Sixty seasons.  I know we’ll get some help tomorrow and next week, but wow. 

The back to back rainers did it.  It was tracking below normal, but ok.  The last 7 days have really hurt.

Closing in on 2015-16 levels.  However snow depth days would be so much better this year than that winter when there was 0” at the Stake on Xmas.  

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Definitely bottom of the barrel.

The craziest thing is how varied our winters are.  Can go all-time low of 2015-16, to one of the largest snow depth days season on record in 2018-19 with monster snowpack, back to this winter.

We can go huge or small, multiple times in a 6 year period .

[powderfreak]

Since 1955, there have only been 5 years with the same or lower snow depth at the fabled Mansfield Stake than this year.

Current depth… 32”
1957… 32”
1983… 31”
2016… 30”
1980… 30”
1961… 15”

Something interesting is the clustering… 1957 and 1961 (4 years apart)… 1980 and 1983 (3 years apart)… and 2016 and 2022 (6 years apart).

Poor snowpack seems to run in close clusters.

 

[bwt3650]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The back to back rainers did it.  It was tracking below normal, but ok.  The last 7 days have really hurt.

Closing in on 2015-16 levels.  However snow depth days would be so much better this year than that winter when there was 0” at the Stake on Xmas.  

Seeing it within two inches of the infamous 15-16 and hearing how bare it is near phin really hit home.  I think we can still have some decent stretches (maybe next week) but it has become a “pick your days carefully” kind of season.  And though I’m sure there will be a couple deep powder days that make us forget, having this little base might bite us late March into early April.  Smuggs only scraped together 27 trails today and nothing at that top of Madonna.  That’s pretty crazy.  Same for jay.  I guess we’ll see.
 

 I’ll be in Breckinridge the second week of March.  It will be interesting to see how they are out west.  I haven’t really followed the western season since the early season Tahoe dump.

[bwt3650]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Since 1955, there have only been 5 years with the same or lower snow depth at the fabled Mansfield Stake than this year.

Current depth… 32”
1957… 32”
1983… 31”
2016… 30”
1980… 30”
1961… 15”

Something interesting is the clustering… 1957 and 1961 (4 years apart)… 1980 and 1983 (3 years apart)… and 2016 and 2022 (6 years apart).

Poor snowpack seems to run in close clusters.

 

Really only one torch day away from being alone with 61.  

[PhineasC]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Since 1955, there have only been 5 years with the same or lower snow depth at the fabled Mansfield Stake than this year.

Current depth… 32”
1957… 32”
1983… 31”
2016… 30”
1980… 30”
1961… 15”

Something interesting is the clustering… 1957 and 1961 (4 years apart)… 1980 and 1983 (3 years apart)… and 2016 and 2022 (6 years apart).

Poor snowpack seems to run in close clusters.

 

Cool (if depressing) stats.

It's good in a way to see "officially" that this season is abnormal. Sometimes I wonder if I am the only one viewing this as a pretty subpar winter, even worse than last winter.

[PhineasC]

10 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Seeing it within two inches of the infamous 15-16 and hearing how bare it is near phin really hit home.  I think we can still have some decent stretches (maybe next week) but it has become a “pick your days carefully” kind of season.  And though I’m sure there will be a couple deep powder days that make us forget, having this little base might bite us late March into early April.  Smuggs only scraped together 27 trails today and nothing at that top of Madonna.  That’s pretty crazy.  Same for jay.  I guess we’ll see.
 

 I’ll be in Breckinridge the second week of March.  It will be interesting to see how they are out west.  I haven’t really followed the western season since the early season Tahoe dump.

Yeah, my bigger concern is late March and April for skiing.

We can limp along until then but there is not a thick base out there to deal with a week of 60s, IMO. Could be a quick end to the season.

[jculligan]

I'm registered for two days of touring with the Mount Washington Backcountry Ski Festival tomorrow and Sunday. Tomorrow I'm registered for the "White Mountain Exploration" course and Sunday I'm registered for a "Ski Mountaineering" course. Based on this morning's avalanche advisory, conditions sound absolutely atrocious with a multitude of hazards. Many of the ravines in New Hampshire are watershed drainages, and with the volume of meltwater and rainwater that was funneling underneath the snowpack this week...a lot of very significant undermining has occurred. Apparently a large chunk of Hillman's Highway has washed away, according to this morning's avalanche report. Undermined snow, ice dams, moats and glide cracks - these are hazards that don't typically emerge until late spring. For backcountry enthusiasts in the White Mountains, this is a bottom tier winter.

I have a call with my guide this evening, and I have a feeling our list of potential objectives will be quite short...

[PhineasC]

33 minutes ago, jculligan said:

I'm registered for two days of touring with the Mount Washington Backcountry Ski Festival tomorrow and Sunday. Tomorrow I'm registered for the "White Mountain Exploration" course and Sunday I'm registered for a "Ski Mountaineering" course. Based on this morning's avalanche advisory, conditions sound absolutely atrocious with a multitude of hazards. Many of the ravines in New Hampshire are watershed drainages, and with the volume of meltwater and rainwater that was funneling underneath the snowpack this week...a lot of very significant undermining has occurred. Apparently a large chunk of Hillman's Highway has washed away, according to this morning's avalanche report. Undermined snow, ice dams, moats and glide cracks - these are hazards that don't typically emerge until late spring. For backcountry enthusiasts in the White Mountains, this is a bottom tier winter.

I have a call with my guide this evening, and I have a feeling our list of potential objectives will be quite short...

Must be pretty ugly up there with the constant freeze-thaw action going on.

[tamarack]

45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Since 1955, there have only been 5 years with the same or lower snow depth at the fabled Mansfield Stake than this year.

Current depth… 32”
1957… 32”
1983… 31”
2016… 30”
1980… 30”
1961… 15”

Something interesting is the clustering… 1957 and 1961 (4 years apart)… 1980 and 1983 (3 years apart)… and 2016 and 2022 (6 years apart).

Poor snowpack seems to run in close clusters.

 

'61 really stands out.  Lots of suppression that winter as the MA got hammered.  Places in NNJ reached 50" or more following the early Feb blizzard, and Canistear Reservoir still had 22" on 2/23.

[NW_of_GYX]

47 minutes ago, jculligan said:

I'm registered for two days of touring with the Mount Washington Backcountry Ski Festival tomorrow and Sunday. Tomorrow I'm registered for the "White Mountain Exploration" course and Sunday I'm registered for a "Ski Mountaineering" course. Based on this morning's avalanche advisory, conditions sound absolutely atrocious with a multitude of hazards. Many of the ravines in New Hampshire are watershed drainages, and with the volume of meltwater and rainwater that was funneling underneath the snowpack this week...a lot of very significant undermining has occurred. Apparently a large chunk of Hillman's Highway has washed away, according to this morning's avalanche report. Undermined snow, ice dams, moats and glide cracks - these are hazards that don't typically emerge until late spring. For backcountry enthusiasts in the White Mountains, this is a bottom tier winter.

I have a call with my guide this evening, and I have a feeling our list of potential objectives will be quite short...

It’s really the below normal snowfall in the whites the last two seasons that does it for me. The valleys and coastal plain are certainly running below average but the higher elevations in the eastern whites and some of the mountain valleys are having a historically bad stretch going back to last year. I gave up steep skiing on march 12 last year once the sherb was basically cooked past my liking. Im lazy and refuse to hike down. Once the sherb is done it’s time to think about whitewater paddling anyway. I have a feeling this season still has some surprises in store but I’m not expecting alpine garden to car skiing in late April at this point. 

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Closing in on 2015-16 levels.  However snow depth days would be so much better this year than that winter when there was 0” at the Stake on Xmas.  

 

49 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's good in a way to see "officially" that this season is abnormal. Sometimes I wonder if I am the only one viewing this as a pretty subpar winter, even worse than last winter.

Seeing the data from regional sites is very interesting, because at our site this has most definitely not been a bottom of the barrel winter up to this point.  Even in our small data set of 14 seasons, there are three seasons with less cumulative snowfall up to this point, three seasons with lower snowpack on this date, and both of those parameters for this season are currently within 1 σ of the mean.  We’ve had two storms of 16”+, which is already average for an entire season in that regard. 

The Mansfield snowpack data clearly indicate that the mountains are well off the usual mark in terms of snowpack.  I think the same thing happened last year, where the mountains were much farther below average on snowfall/snowpack than the valleys?  We actually ended last season with roughly average snowfall at our site, or even slightly above.  One would think that the mountains should have lower standard deviation and have higher snowpack/snowfall reliability, but perhaps not?  What sort of seasonal weather pattern/trend has to come together to keep the valleys closer to average than the higher elevations?

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

Really only one torch day away from being alone with 61.  

Yeah it’s funny how the lows are all at like 30-32” and then ‘61 is 15” below that.  That’s the difference between getting snow tomorrow vs rain.  The stats can endure a lot, but it takes something special to be #1.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Seeing the data from regional sites is very interesting, because at our site this has most definitely not been a bottom of the barrel winter up to this point.  Even in our small data set of 14 seasons, there are three seasons with less cumulative snowfall up to this point, three seasons with lower snowpack on this date, and both of those parameters for this season are currently within 1 σ of the mean.  We’ve had two storms of 16”+, which is already average for an entire season in that regard. 

The Mansfield snowpack data clearly indicate that the mountains are well off the usual mark in terms of snowpack.  I think the same thing happened last year, where the mountains were much farther below average on snowfall/snowpack than the valleys?  We actually ended last season with roughly average snowfall at our site, or even slightly above.  One would think that the mountains should have lower standard deviation and have higher snowpack/snowfall reliability, but perhaps not?  What sort of seasonal weather pattern/trend has to come together to keep the valleys closer to average than the higher elevations?

Who knows, Sugarbush hasn’t even hit 100” yet at the top of the mountain.  Meanwhile BTV isn’t that far from normal snowfall.  It’s interesting you aren’t that far from normal snowfall as upslope has been missing so much this winter but that’s your climo too.

How’s your liquid stats?  It’s felt real dry this winter on the whole to me.  That’s where the mountains suffer.  

 

[#NoPoles]

Snow mobile trail has no snow, and Omni shut down all outdoor activities accept downhill skiing until Sat pending the new snow. Bare spots on west mountain...this season has been challenging 

[bwt3650]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

'61 really stands out.  Lots of suppression that winter as the MA got hammered.  Places in NNJ reached 50" or more following the early Feb blizzard, and Canistear Reservoir still had 22" on 2/23.

Great memory and interesting similarity as places in south Jersey are well above average this year while up at Jay and Stowe, struggling to keep out of all time bad territory.  That can’t be a coincidence.