mreaves Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I've got no idea on those PWS vs. ASOS, that is firmly in Dendy's wheelhouse. I don't even know to be honest if they are the exact same measurement... is is 1-sec wind speed? 5-sec average? Instantaneous? 30 or 60 second averages for sustained? I'm definitely lacking in wind measurement criteria knowledge. I do think the western slope communities see the highest synoptic wind in the state of VT though, as you know. From up here in eastern Chittenden/Franklin counties, down through Addison/Rutland and into Bennington... the narrow strip of west slope spots do see those legit 50+ gusts from time to time. DDH/RUT/6B0 up to east of BTV. I know they've recorded even over 70mph in low elevation lee-side locations during the rouge extreme events when you have those real strong 90+kt H85 low level jets rolling in from the SE where the summits flirt with 100mph. Is it Paradise Valley in Underhill that always gets those big winds? That fits your west slope description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Went to check out a lot for sale at Ledgewood today… the top of the lot is at about 2100ft with a 300 degree view. Not a bad home site. Unfortunately not the best orientation (I don’t think you can see Mt Wash from it) but it was hard to tell exactly what you can and cannot see in this weather. Only $499K https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Ledgewood-Dr-Lot-2_Bethlehem_NH_03574_M92106-79197 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 41 minutes ago, mreaves said: There is a hillside next to 89 just south of the Waterbury exit that looks like it is almost completely oak. I haven’t driven by for a few weeks but those trees seem to keep their leaves for months after everything else drops. Yea leaf cleanup sucks, they drop over along period of time it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said: Yea, for sure. I'm totally cleared out to the east, so pretty unobstructed wind flow. Wonder how accurate Davis anemometer is say compared to ASOS. @dendrite would probably know. Im sure I've probably been weenieing out and overestimating some wind events since being here, but some are just nuts. We'll see i guess. The Davis is pretty accurate. The differences pretty much come down to siting. The airports tend to have 360° of unobstructed flow to the 10m sited ultrasonic anemometers. The home stations obviously tend to have to deal with buildings and trees and have trouble getting up to the official height. If you have trees around the recommendation is to go even higher than that to get above the tree canopy. Good luck with that. You can actually read too high in some slanted roof setups if the anemometer is too low since the wind will accelerate as it is forced upward. All of that air flowing in in that column from the peak of the roof to the bottom gets “squeezed” together and it has to speed up the slope…think bernoulli. A good 5ft+ above the peak of the roof should suffice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, alex said: Went to check out a lot for sale at Ledgewood today… the top of the lot is at about 2100ft with a 300 degree view. Not a bad home site. Unfortunately not the best orientation (I don’t think you can see Mt Wash from it) but it was hard to tell exactly what you can and cannot see in this weather. Only $499K https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Ledgewood-Dr-Lot-2_Bethlehem_NH_03574_M92106-79197 Looks nice, but @ORH_wxman will probably chime in with a climo report that it's a total snow pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 36 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I've got no idea on those PWS vs. ASOS, that is firmly in Dendy's wheelhouse. I don't even know to be honest if they are the exact same measurement... is is 1-sec wind speed? 5-sec average? Instantaneous? 30 or 60 second averages for sustained? I'm definitely lacking in wind measurement criteria knowledge. I do think the western slope communities see the highest synoptic wind in the state of VT though, as you know. From up here in eastern Chittenden/Franklin counties, down through Addison/Rutland and into Bennington... the narrow strip of west slope spots do see those legit 50+ gusts from time to time. DDH/RUT/6B0 up to east of BTV. I know they've recorded even over 70mph in low elevation lee-side locations during the rouge extreme events when you have those real strong 90+kt H85 low level jets rolling in from the SE where the summits flirt with 100mph. The wind can die off pretty quickly when you head west away from spine say into downtown Manchester during certain events, really not that far from where I live. Still windy, but not close to same level. Also interesting that even during some intense wind events with snow or rain, the rates can stay pretty high, guess because I'm so close to the ridge, there is still some downsloping and loss of precip I'm sure, but not like say DDH which is 3-5 miles away from the spine(about 1/4 mile for me). They don't do snow there l, but I see it all the time in rainy windy East flow wind events looking at precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: The Davis is pretty accurate. The differences pretty much come down to siting. The airports tend to have 360° of unobstructed flow to the 10m sited ultrasonic anemometers. The home stations obviously tend to have to deal with buildings and trees and have trouble getting up to the official height. If you have trees around the recommendation is to go even higher than that to get above the tree canopy. Good luck with that. You can actually read too high in some slanted roof setups if the anemometer is too low since the wind will accelerate as it is forced upward. All of that air flowing in in that column from the peak of the room to the bottom gets “squeezed” together and it has to speed up the slope…think bernoulli. A good 5ft+ above the peak of the roof should suffice. Makes sense with possible extra bump in wind speed off the roof. This is just an example, but this how I will be siting mine, off the gable end, about 5-6 ft up. With the perfect wind flow(ESE), I'll have almost no obstruction straight back to the western slope spine, it just comes straight down into the back of my house. Why I want to get it up on the roof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 It’s crazy to think that November temperatures and snow chances are literally moving into the area tomorrow, but I guess the calendar is turning to the new month, and the progression isn’t going to wait. We still have a ton of fall cleanup and prep to do here because the weekend weather has been less than optimal with all the rain. Some of the latest BTV NWS discussion: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 359 AM EDT Sunday...the flow aloft backs a little to the southwest in response to a shortwave trough moving toward the area. This will result in increased precipitation chances over most of our area on Tuesday with lake effect precipitation moving up into northern New York and any showers that develop in response to the increasing dynamic support from the approaching shortwave trough. Temperatures aloft are cold enough that higher elevations should see precipitation in the form of snow. However, precipitation amounts will likely be a tenth of an inch or less. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s, but in the 30s across the higher summits. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 359 AM EDT Sunday...Extended forecast remains on track with general ideas of cyclonic flow through much of the period helping to bring below normal temperatures to the area. Highs will be in the 40s, but in the 30s for the mountains. Thus any precipitation will once again be in the form or snow at the higher elevations, generally above 2000 feet. It does look like there will be additional shortwave troughs moving through the larger scale flow and this should enhance the precipitation chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Have bumped up probabilities more in the chance category for this time period as we will continue to see some lake effect precipitation and showers from the approaching shortwaves. The bolded does get one thinking about food a bit, nothing fancy, just sort of your typical staples. I could swear we’ve got a graphic around for it somewhere. I’ll look into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 2.87" over night and wind gust to 40 MPH this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 About 1.75” yesterday and today. The only complaint is have about my PWS app is that even though it keeps daily, weekly, monthly and yearly precip totals, it doesn’t let me look at individual days. I can’t go back to yesterday and see what the total was. It’s not the end of the world just a minor annoyance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 After yesterday's 0.14" of showers and dz, we had 1.95" between 9 last evening and 8 this AM. Looks like another 2 tenths before the end. Saw amounts between 6" and 7" in south-coastal Maine (6.88" tops) and my 2.09" for cocorahs failed to make the first page - about 60th of 101 reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 15 hours ago, alex said: Went to check out a lot for sale at Ledgewood today… the top of the lot is at about 2100ft with a 300 degree view. Not a bad home site. Unfortunately not the best orientation (I don’t think you can see Mt Wash from it) but it was hard to tell exactly what you can and cannot see in this weather. Only $499K https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Ledgewood-Dr-Lot-2_Bethlehem_NH_03574_M92106-79197 If you get serious on it, make sure to get the soil and water tested. Also google health related clusters in Bethlehem for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 16 hours ago, alex said: Went to check out a lot for sale at Ledgewood today… the top of the lot is at about 2100ft with a 300 degree view. Not a bad home site. Unfortunately not the best orientation (I don’t think you can see Mt Wash from it) but it was hard to tell exactly what you can and cannot see in this weather. Only $499K https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Ledgewood-Dr-Lot-2_Bethlehem_NH_03574_M92106-79197 Buy it Nice weenie spot for that town w views from Beech hill Nice looking lot as well Im sure you saw the other similar size lot at Swazey lane that goes between 1500-2k (sloped more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 What a disaster of a day, ha. Would be one helluva upslope event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 Sun is breaking through over here in beautiful New Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Still raining out. All day long. No bueno. River is quite high. The other day before the rain, one last tree with leaves on the mountain. Stick season except for that one yellow tree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Still raining out. All day long. No bueno. River is quite high. The other day before the rain, one last tree with leaves on the mountain. Stick season except for that one yellow tree. Yeah hearing about sun breaking out in other parts of NE is making me jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 hour ago, mreaves said: Yeah hearing about sun breaking out in other parts of NE is making me jealous. If only it was snow. The Spine has been getting firehosed all day long on cyclonic W/NW flow. Several spots on the west side of Mansfield are up to 2”+ just today, compared to a little over an inch here in Stowe Village today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: If only it was snow. The Spine has been getting firehosed all day long on cyclonic W/NW flow. Several spots on the west side of Mansfield are up to 2”+ just today, compared to a little over an inch here in Stowe Village today. 1.44” here since midnight and .45” yesterday. This is the type of storm that lends credence to the days and days meme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Stats for October: Avg. temp: 48.74 +3.77 Highest: 73 on 12 & 13. @nd mildest of 24 Octobers, 0.01" above 2007 but 2.37 below 2017. (Would take either following winter.) Avg. high: 57.94 +2.72 Avg. low: 39.55 +4.83 Almost every month recently has milder minima than maximum when compared to average. Precip: 4.04" -1.59 Had 2.18" on 10/31. Snow: Zero Of 24 Octobers here, 6 have had measurable snow and 4 more have had traces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 On 10/31/2021 at 9:25 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nice day incoming, gorgeous day really . I often think the posters who rant about how we should “not expect snow in early to mid November “ are the ones that have a hard time differentiating between “hoping thing break the right (snowy) way and being totally cool if they don’t “ and I have no idea what else (being emotionally crushed If white stuff doesn’t fall from sky ?). It’s a lot more interesting to hope for then high dew talk . You want to take advantage of any troughs that could produce snow , nobody cries if A 5-7 day potential dies in Novie or it doesn’t snow ...except so many protest if others root for it , it’s like they themselves don’t want to get their hopes up , or their location is worse , or I’m not sure what . Literally nobody on the board except PF expects snow in early November . Hey, just hang out in this thread. It seems like folks are slow to get rolling this season, but I posted about it yesterday – sub-0 °C 850 hPa air is literally moving into the area as we speak. Many of us here should be expecting snow by this point, even in early November. Our site is only at 500’, and we’ve had snow during the first 10 days of the month in the vast majority of seasons that I’ve been keeping records, so you know that the higher elevation folks like Alex and Phin should be expecting it. We’re typically not talking about blockbuster storms at this point, but the past couple of seasons have had some nice accumulations in those first 10 days of November, with at least 6-12” inches down. Snow is even in our point forecast for the valley right now, so there’s definitely some potential out there with the air that is moving in. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1039 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021 .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Monday...Tuesday night and Wednesday will see a combination of lake effect precipitation from Lake Ontario and some showers from a shortwave trough moving across the area. Precipitation will be most concentrated over northern New York, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Thermal profiles continue to support the idea of air cold enough above 1500 feet for precipitation to be in the form of snow. Precipitation amounts will still be a tenth of an inch or less. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s with highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s to mid 40s. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Monday...One more shortwave trough and enhancement of lake effect moisture will occur on Thursday and bring some more rain and snow showers to the area. Again precipitation amounts will generally be less than a tenth of an inch. Snow levels will continue to be somewhere around the 1500 foot mark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 First frozen of the season in town and boy was that anticlimactic lol. Graupel shower just rolled through with solid white balls bouncing off the car and then immediately melting. It’s like 48F outside so can see what evaporational cooling can do along with CAA aloft. Lasted about 60-90 seconds . But it was the first frozen I’ve seen at home. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Seems like we could be entering our first stretch of snowmaking temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 15 hours ago, powderfreak said: First frozen of the season in town and boy was that anticlimactic lol. Graupel shower just rolled through with solid white balls bouncing off the car and then immediately melting. It’s like 48F outside so can see what evaporational cooling can do along with CAA aloft. Lasted about 60-90 seconds . But it was the first frozen I’ve seen at home. Yeah, that’s often how our October or early November events happen. Even when the forecast indicates that snow levels are anticipated to be around 1,500’ or so as I posted yesterday from the BTV NWS discussion, it can easily mean graupel, pellets, or other robust frozen aggregates making it down to some of the lower mountain valleys as you saw. It seems that having the orographics around helps to enhance those chances. It looks like we’ll have more chances over the next couple of days with some lake moisture in play and a trough swinging through. With the anticipated temperatures, the colder portions of the diurnal cycle will of course be better in general for getting anything frozen into the valleys. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 738 AM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021 Previous Discussion...The main forecast challenges for the near term continue to be timing and extent considerations for a lake enhanced band of showers that is currently located on a west- east axis off of Lake Ontario that extends just past the KTYX radar near Watertown, NY. Favorable phasing of low level and mid level winds are expected to continue to propagate moisture downstream as average flow shifts southwesterly. This flow change favors an orientation shift for the band that will likely track over the Adirondacks and across portions of the Champlain Valley by the midday and early afternoon hours today. Model consensus shows best chances of showers along a line from just north of Watertown, NY around Saranac Lake and through Burlington and Mt Mansfield Vermont. However, precipitation will be limited to generally less than 0.10 inches for most locations with 0.25-0.5 inches in the core of the band west of Saranac Lake through southwesterly St Lawrence County. Meanwhile, cyclonic curvature is projected to increase in the base of the longwave trough while lapse rates steepen. This will promote shower formation today across much of the North Country especially from northern New York through the northern Green Mountains. However, outside of the lake band, showers will be scattered in nature with only a few hundredths likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Started as rain and now over to all snow at 1,500ft in the base area. Trails are turning white not far up. Looks like big flakes just a few hundred feet higher. Nice lake effect/upslope connection. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Started as rain and now over to all snow at 1,500ft in the base area. Trails are turning white not far up. Looks like big flakes just a few hundred feet higher. Nice lake effect/upslope connection. The magic has begun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Started as rain and now over to all snow at 1,500ft in the base area. Trails are turning white not far up. Looks like big flakes just a few hundred feet higher. Nice lake effect/upslope connection. LOL, I was just looking out here from my office and saw that the upper half of Mansfield had disappeared behind what looked like snow, so I figured I would check in and give a heads up. It’s no surprise that you were already all over it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 Clouded up over here but no precipitation yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Cloudy and 43 degrees. I bought a mid-week season pass to BW this year, here's hoping for a good season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 A part of me has really wanted to experience the NNE Snow Climo for as long as I can recall . I know the SNE posters are sick of me saying how lowly our climo is down there . It really is thou for a snow lover . I’m not sure what path I will take to make it happen but I see myself experiencing it , if only for one winter in the next several years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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