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NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022


PhineasC
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58 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Any thoughts on the southern green ski resorts: Stratton, mt snow? I know a lot of people headed up this weekend. Drive up Friday doable and they mostly snow?

Looks like a hell of a lot of mixing. And a sharp cutoff that seems modeled in southern Rutland county right now 

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6 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

:D Jay reporting 8" up top as of EOD. You get out today? I don't scrutinize their totals as much as some but that one does seem a bit suspect to me. Hopefully its legit! I'm up the following weekend.  

I see that they are reporting 141" so far this season? That seems really unlikely given the reports from the rest of the mountains around them. We have not had many upslope events and they missed on the last synoptic event. Where is that snow even coming from? Something like 70" inches of it is from events that didn't impact anyone else in NNE?

That seems way out of the realm of believable. Yikes.

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4 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

:D Jay reporting 8" up top as of EOD. You get out today? I don't scrutinize their totals as much as some but that one does seem a bit suspect to me. Hopefully its legit! I'm up the following weekend.  

Haha…that update had and still has me contemplating getting the car right now!

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3 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

:D Jay reporting 8" up top as of EOD. You get out today? I don't scrutinize their totals as much as some but that one does seem a bit suspect to me. Hopefully its legit! I'm up the following weekend.  

That does seem suspect.  Based on Cam footage at the stake on Mansfield it looked like 4+ inches as of 6:30.  No storm related reason why they would be so different.

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40 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

That does seem suspect.  Based on Cam footage at the stake on Mansfield it looked like 4+ inches as of 6:30.  No storm related reason why they would be so different.

They were definitely in better SW flow today and models had better QPF north during the early part of the system… I can’t say one way or another but I bet they had a bit more than Mansfield.

Anyway, our High Road ground plot was snowier by 1.5” over the live snow cam through 4pm.  The cam location is usually on the conservative side of things on the windy knuckle there at top of Lookout vs center of mountain on Gondola/High Road.

Either way, measuring on a mountain with thousands of vertical feet and miles of difference at times can lead to interesting things.  I truly enjoy the live cam running conservative as that’s generally how I approach weather forecasting and snowfall, ha.  We all know that 3” on that thing is a fun day.  You get double digits there and it’s game on.

Here was High Road at last Gondola ride today.

186F6283-05CC-4F9C-AF38-F4A0A990D7F3.jpeg.f2bad337ce467958fe30bf4abce21c25.jpeg

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

They were definitely in better SW flow today and models had better QPF north during the early part of the system… I can’t say one way or another but I bet they had a bit more than Mansfield.

Anyway, our High Road ground plot was snowier by 1.5” over the live snow cam through 4pm.  The cam location is usually on the conservative side of things on the windy knuckle there at top of Lookout vs center of mountain on Gondola/High Road.

Either way, measuring on a mountain with thousands of vertical feet and miles of difference at times can lead to interesting things.  I truly enjoy the live cam running conservative as that’s generally how I approach weather forecasting and snowfall, ha.  We all know that 3” on that thing is a fun day.  You get double digits there and it’s game on.

Here was High Road at last Gondola ride today.

186F6283-05CC-4F9C-AF38-F4A0A990D7F3.jpeg.f2bad337ce467958fe30bf4abce21c25.jpeg

The seasonal number is what really made me shake my head. Just doesn't fit what I have seen on the models this season at all.

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The seasonal number is what really made me shake my head. Just doesn't fit what I have seen on the models this season at all.

Yeah we’ve all been there in our heads, ha.  But I don’t ski there so I can’t really tell.  I do think they get more though, how much, hard to say.  I mean there’s usually a good increase from Sugarbush to this area, there’s probably another similar step up at Jay.

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56 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

:D Jay reporting 8" up top as of EOD. You get out today? I don't scrutinize their totals as much as some but that one does seem a bit suspect to me. Hopefully its legit! I'm up the following weekend.  

I left last night to head back to Jersey for a week so I missed it but yeah, 8 seems like a bit of a stretch.  I checked my webcam at 730 am and it looked like about 2” and that’s at about 1900’.  Depends on the L.E. but I thought most was coming tonight.  If they are talking the ridge right off the tram at 4000’, maybe.  I will say that I was out everyday last week and hit smuggs on Monday and there was a significant difference.  The 5 jay reported on Friday when everyone was much lower was right on.  At smuggs, doc Dempsey and the woods off upper smugglers were holding on for dear life while Andre’s on tramside was still full coverage.  By yesterday, stateside was getting thin, but still better coverage than smuggs and tramside was better.  Here is a pic from the same day as smuggs where they were thin (granted pic is from the top of Valhalla at 3500)

 

Even if the 8 was high, I think they legit are 15-18 by the weekend.  I’m back next weekend too so hopefully, it holds on.

E6FAD997-1E91-4BEF-A9CF-CF700BC012CE.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah we’ve all been there in our heads, ha.  But I don’t ski there so I can’t really tell.  I do think they get more though, how much, hard to say.  I mean there’s usually a good increase from Sugarbush to this area, there’s probably another similar step up at Jay.

But 30" more than Stowe? I dunno, seems hard to believe.

I have little direct insight into what goes on over in VT on the peaks, so I can't really question it. The resorts in NH are all reporting totals that align pretty well with what I'd expect given the weather situation over here and what I see when I go up there basically every single day. If Cannon was talking about 130" so far this season I'd be like "no way." Their 76" is much more in line with the weather that has occurred in northern NH so far and makes sense to me.

Anyway, this is an ancient topic that has been beaten to death. Not trying to kick up a fight, that Jay number was just eye-popping to me.

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