alex Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Had to be epic skiing today. It was pretty amazing. The snow has a perfect consistency - not soft, not hard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 hours ago, J.Spin said: To be honest, I’m not sure I’ve even taken full notice of those individual numbers at the sites. I assume they’re just their deterministic point forecasts for those specific locations. I think people would treat them like any deterministic snowfall forecast; it’s not going to be the exact number for the snowfall, but it gives you an idea of what the forecast suggests. Listing the ranges in text for each site seems practical for a more probabilistic forecasting approach, but as I look at them now, it has me thinking, what’s the point? If the shading already gives the ranges, and then the text just has those same ranges listed for each site, it’s sort of redundant information. Edward Tufte would probably dedicate at least half a page to these charts in one of his books. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Tufte He always had an issue with busy charts full of redundant information in big bold fonts that distract the viewer from the bigger picture the creator is trying to convey. Easier said than done to make a perfect chart though. I think these NWS graphics are pretty good. Information visualization is a fascinating and relevant topic for many disciplines, and I recommend his books to anyone who has an interest in that topic. They are full of beautiful examples of excellent and terrible visualizations of complex data. Several weather-related examples in his books. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 That 00z HRRR run was juiced. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That 00z HRRR run was juiced. Verbatim, biggest storm since I bought this place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Verbatim, biggest storm since I bought this place. NAM looks like it’ll be big as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I don’t like these warm runs. Yes, I’m still on the cold side but it feels like the margin is getting thinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks great even 20 seems in reach Seems a good bet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, mreaves said: I don’t like these warm runs. Yes, I’m still on the cold side but it feels like the margin is getting thinner. Feel like this literally happens with every event with some warm nose involved, every model run ticks warmer and warmer and warmer, and then still ends up even warmer than guidance at go time and during the event Some of these mesos have like 2-3" here of precip with alot of sleet. I officially hate this event..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Feel like this literally happens with every event with some warm nose involved, every model run ticks warmer and warmer and warmer, and then still ends up even warmer than guidance at go time and during the event Some of these mesos have like 2-3" here of precip with alot of sleet. I officially hate this event..lol Mitch just melted down on Twitter over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: Mitch just melted down on Twitter over it. Yea, he's even more screwed than me being 25 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Yea, he's even more screwed than me being 25 miles south. Beats 50 degrees rain though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, alex said: It was pretty amazing. The snow has a perfect consistency - not soft, not hard That sounds lovely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: That sounds lovely She says bitterly… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Nice and toasty out, but walkways are a sheet of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, alex said: Nice and toasty out, but walkways are a sheet of ice Light rain here below 2,000ft with 1-2" overnight above that. The dirt roads and walkways are pure skating rinks. Even RT 108 was slick despite 35F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 This will be a happier thread lol. Well good luck PF and company. Enjoy. Should be finally a meaty pack up there this winter. Hoping it stays for Feb vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Did models juice overnight? P&C is now 11-21 and the map jumped everyone into the 12-18 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 35, some light drizzle around overnight it appears. Hope cold comes in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I'm down in Massachusetts at the moment, heading up north around 6pm this evening. Model output looks unanimously good for me, Phin, and a lot of the VT posters in here. Precarious forecast for the Lakes region and points south - the cutoff in snowfall amounts could be quite cruel for those caught on the wrong side of it. I've been away from the board for the last several days, and I'm sure there's been discussion of the icing potential in southern NH in the actual storm thread. To me, this does have the classic look of an ice storm where perhaps some of those "weenie maps" won't be too far off (normally I reduce those maps by at least 50 percent). But the fresh input of cold, dry arctic air feeding into the system and a couple waves of low pressure rippling along a stalled frontal boundary with many hours of light to moderate precip looks like a classic setup for someone to get a heavy glazing. Worcester Hills, Monadnocks, and Merrimack Valley perhaps? Either way...keep that stuff south of us!! This is the mid-season kick our ski season has been so desperately needing up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Snow was good in the woods that weren't skied off yesterday, but a few of the glades were holding on for dear life. There were a couple of panic moments when you go around a blind corner and realize you have to ski in a 12 inch path between exposed roots and rocks...gets the blood pumping for sure. The mountain kind of held on just long enough to get to this storm, which should solidify things for a while. The lack of rain or a thaw has been great to limit things to just skied off conditions, rather than straight up ice. There was definitely a difference between smuggs and jay the last few days, where I think smuggs was really stretching some of those open natural trails. Left last night for a week to beat the storm home so I can guarantee it will be an over-performer and the biggest of the year. Need to fill up those snow making ponds for final touches too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: 35, some light drizzle around overnight it appears. Hope cold comes in soon. It’s taking it’s time. Still wet below 2,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Really tough forecast for my hood! Congrats to all those north of me. Battle line is right through me. I might ping for hours or maybe I will just squeak in to the snow. I'm looking at 925mb and 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Glad I cleared all decks and walkways before this one. With the warmth, the existing pack has settled into a cement sheet about 15-17" thick and once it freezes will be very hard to clear. Wouldn't want to try to remove that and the new snow at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Really tough forecast for my hood! Congrats to all those north of me. Battle line is right through me. I might ping for hours or maybe I will just squeak in to the snow. I'm looking at 925mb and 850mb temps. Riding the line, waiting for the sound of pingers to either start or stop. Been there so many times in MD. I have said it a couple times here, but I never buy into "cold chasing rain" turnover storms. The cold is always late and the warm push always early and stronger. These usually seem to end up being a bit of stray mixed crap to whiten the ground as the storm pulls away. That will be a fate of a lot of SNE, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timp Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Wife said it just switched to snow in Hyde Park and snow is starting to mix in at work in Williston. It’s go time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said: Feel like this literally happens with every event with some warm nose involved, every model run ticks warmer and warmer and warmer, and then still ends up even warmer than guidance at go time and during the event Some of these mesos have like 2-3" here of precip with alot of sleet. I officially hate this event..lol Though a very different setup, this event has a faint aroma of Dec 7-9, 2014. That storm was forecast at 10-16" here, basically our current forecast for tonight/tomorrow. The 2014 thing brought 1.3" snow and 2"+ of 33-35° RA. Meanwhile, western Maine mountains above about 1800' had 18-30" of tree-wrecking paste. (It was the 2nd of that season's mega-busts, storms that brought only 1/8 the snow needed for the forecast to verify.) I remain optimistic about this one, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froude Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Finally flipped to snow here. The pack actually took a decent hit overnight, time to rebuild! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 light snow starting to mix in outside my window in downtown Burlington (BTV) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, timp said: Wife said it just switched to snow in Hyde Park and snow is starting to mix in at work in Williston. It’s go time!! It flipped to snow at Stowe base right after my last raining post. Steady light snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Temp finally headed back down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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