tamarack Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 19 hours ago, PhineasC said: Whiff and then cutter? Gonna need some serious bread and butter to fix things. Ugly looking model runs into mid-Feb. The GYX least/expected/most snow list this AM has the widest spreads I've seen. Farmington's 0"/6"/13" is eye opening, but pales compared to ASH's 0"/9"/21" and PSM's 1"/1"/23". Pretty wild for 2 days before first flakes. Tickled -30 here this morning, only the 6th such minima in 24 years. Others were in January 2005, 2009 (twice), 2014 and December 2017. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Any likelihood of upslope snow in the Greens on the backside of this system, or not the right setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 hours ago, sankaty said: Any likelihood of upslope snow in the Greens on the backside of this system, or not the right setup? The low is too far east when it hits the right latitude and not enough moisture in the low levels with the arctic air mass advecting in behind it. Some windy light snows maybe but right now not going to be anything worth noting. She just escaped too far east. Should be a great storm to watch unfold though for the eastern areas near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Thanks for the analysis! Though if the latest NAM is right, the Killington area (where I'm headed) won't need to rely on upslope. Hoping some more reliable models jump on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Can't help but feel giddy watching the trends today...especially the most recent NAM. I certainly wouldn't hang my hat on that model more than 24 hours from the event, but it's fun to look at and imagine how things COULD unfold ha. I won't be observing this event from my normal location in Jackson; my girlfriend's son is turning 10 this weekend and we're spending tomorrow through Sunday at an Airbnb near Okemo VT. Jackson looks to be in better position synoptically, but maybe the Green Mountain spine can work its magic and provide just enough enhancement to tack on a few more inches in that location. One can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Some light snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, jculligan said: Can't help but feel giddy watching the trends today...especially the most recent NAM. I certainly wouldn't hang my hat on that model more than 24 hours from the event, but it's fun to look at and imagine how things COULD unfold ha. I won't be observing this event from my normal location in Jackson; my girlfriend's son is turning 10 this weekend and we're spending tomorrow through Sunday at an Airbnb near Okemo VT. Jackson looks to be in better position synoptically, but maybe the Green Mountain spine can work its magic and provide just enough enhancement to tack on a few more inches in that location. One can dream. Yeah, trends since 18z are for this to be a decent east flow event for the whites. Models all have enhanced precip over us. I am thinking 6-10 but NAM and the 18z Euro hint at a boom potential of 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Damn NNE crew asleep on the job. 9 degrees and mod snow here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Damn NNE crew asleep on the job. 9 degrees and mod snow here now. Nothing here. 18° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Some light snow here. I have some down here now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just over an inch of snow at all elevations at the mountain. Surprised to find the same amount at 1500ft as 3000ft+. Light flurries and radar shows a bit more moisture working in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Winter Storm Watch for Coos. 6-10 on the P&C. Models look great for at least that much here. NAM and Euro want to do 12-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 31 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Winter Storm Watch for Coos. 6-10 on the P&C. Models look great for at least that much here. NAM and Euro want to do 12-15. Let’s focus on the cutter. JK nice to see the trends! Even 4 inches will be great. At this point everything is skiable, it’s all delicious gravy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Guess those of us in VT need to ride the 12K NAM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, mreaves said: Guess those of us in VT need to ride the 12K NAM Which is the equivalent of buying Marlins World Series tickets in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E. I found a light accumulation on the snowboards this morning, which the BTV NWS indicates is from a surface cold front crossing the area. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 23.4 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 12.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, alex said: Let’s focus on the cutter. JK nice to see the trends! Even 4 inches will be great. At this point everything is skiable, it’s all delicious gravy! 06Z Euro Aligning western cutoff more north to south, now brings over 1” qpf over good portion of NH. With high SLR, I think you will do pretty nicely. Over here, jury still out. It is going to be close on a plowable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2-3 inches of fluff here overnight and snowing pretty good at the moment. Nice refresh for the morning. NH crew looking to get a decent snow out of the storm. Would be nice to score another 2-3 here tnrw if the west trend holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Since VT isn't really in it for the big snows, lets talk about the truly exciting stuff. Month to date BTV is -6.1° MPV is -2.1° and MVL is -5.5°. Been a pretty chilly month. BTV is what really stands out to me. It seems hard for them to get even an average month temperature wise let alone such a large negative departure. I would think some of that is due to a new 30 year timeframe but I don't know. It has been cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Living on the edge up here in C/NNE. Living in my nice snowhole just south of the Whites. Any thought as to where the deformation zone might setup? I have seen double maxs in deep storms so maybe I will luck out in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Since it's now or never, I made the brutal trek down to the lakefront to replace my anemometer. My anxiety going up on that boathouse roof grows with every year. The ice was rumbling constantly, and there were a couple of big booms that spooked me. I wasn't expecting to be able to feel them so clearly. Anyways, 2mph with gusts to 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, eekuasepinniW said: Since it's now or never, I made the brutal trek down to the lakefront to replace my anemometer. My anxiety going up on that boathouse roof grows with every year. The ice was rumbling constantly, and there were a couple of big booms that spooked me. I wasn't expecting to be able to feel them so clearly. Anyways, 2mph with gusts to 4. Meanwhile Black Cat Island is gusting to 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, eekuasepinniW said: Since it's now or never, I made the brutal trek down to the lakefront to replace my anemometer. My anxiety going up on that boathouse roof grows with every year. The ice was rumbling constantly, and there were a couple of big booms that spooked me. I wasn't expecting to be able to feel them so clearly. Anyways, 2mph with gusts to 4. Nice to see you post again. I missed you. You kept me on the straight and narrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, mreaves said: Meanwhile Black Cat Island is gusting to 40 are you trying to get me to smash my new laptop or what 13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Nice to see you post again. I missed you. You kept me on the straight and narrow! I'm trying to make the world a better place, one accurate pond depth report at a time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, eekuasepinniW said: are you trying to get me to smash my new laptop or what I'm trying to make the world a better place, one accurate pond depth report at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Well, the 18z GFS is a nice way to handle “the cutter”! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Well, the 18z GFS is a nice way to handle “the cutter”! Meh . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Meh . Nature trying to balance the scales right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Been snowing here all day. Nothing substantial but flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Meh . Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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