dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 -29° at Pittsburg and Island Pond are the 2 coldest obs I see. -7.2° here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patriot21 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 -22 here at 430am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 -13 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 -13 was the low. -11 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 -23. Pedestrian Leery of my location for this upcoming storm, even though the P&C forecast calls for 8-15". The mountains mean business - both with upslope and downslope, but then again, a minor difference in wind direction can have a huge impact so it's always so hard to tell what a storm will end up doing. I remember one of my first winters here a Nor'easter delivered about 4 feet of snow, 12 or so from the synoptic which seemed a bit of a let-down, and then a wallop of upslope and never ending wrap-around. Not suggesting this will happen in any way, but the topography makes an accurate prediction very, very hard. Either way, I'm confident and excited that Attitash and Wildcat will get a good dump; got an Epic pass in addition to my usual Bretton Woods pass and I'd like to use it somewhere other than Stowe! But also excited to ski Stowe later this coming week. I love NNE. It ALL feels like home lol. Anyways. This is not bad for a "low end chance". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 -17° here. NWS says 4”-8” I’ll be happy with that. I’ve been thinking 6” seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The Wind Chill Warnings and Wind Chill Advisories that had taken priority on the BTV NWS alerts maps have now expired, so we can see the layout of winter weather alerts in the area for the approaching system, which has been given the name Winter Storm Izzy. The collection of Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings certainly depicts the lower totals expected in parts of NVT and the Champlain Valley, and these can be seen on the latest Storm Total Snowfall Forecast map, which I see mreaves also posted. Here at our site, We’re under a Winter Storm Warning and I’m seeing projected accumulations in the 6-14” range through Tuesday. For the local mountains the projected accumulations top out around the 18-20” range for the highest elevations, and the map does just start to catch a bit of that 12-18” shading along the crest of the spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I have no empirical evidence to back this up, but yesterday seemed liked a record low max for my area since I moved here. Got to 0.9F for high and with some wind, just nasty. I honestly cant recall a colder daytime high past 7 years, maybe I just don't have the steel trap memory of Will and some others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Any thoughts on whether HRRR colder solutions which are verifying down south may translate up north? Seems like many areas are going to be affected by micro differences in topography, wind direction, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 10-18 on the P&C now. I expect to stay around 30-31 degrees for the bulk of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 10-18 on the P&C now. I expect to stay around 30-31 degrees for the bulk of the event. Mine has 8-15. I'd be happy with 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, alex said: Mine has 8-15. I'd be happy with 6 Ha me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 I am thinking 10-12 here, the storm is really hauling ass which limits totals IMO because rates are usually not as heavy as predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Ha me too. My stake is at 5"; went out skiing and the conditions are just fantastic. It's really amazing how little snow you can get good skiing on lol. 6" would pretty much double that! Granted, I don't do LE but those 5" you can walk on without any problem, it's definitely not the same as what you get with a single 5" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: I am thinking 10-12 here, the storm is really hauling ass which limits totals IMO because rates are usually not as heavy as predicted. The wildcard, as always, will be what happens after the storm. It seems that it's a lot easier to predict synoptic totals than it is to predict upslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha me too. Why are you guys pessimistic? Looks like almost all snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, DavisStraight said: Why are you guys pessimistic? Looks like almost all snow for you. They are not the best at east flow events like this. A lot of little topographical gotchas up here. Downsloping, shadowing, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Why are you guys pessimistic? Looks like almost all snow for you. I don't know, 2021 has scarred us. We can't seem to get more than a couple of inches at a time or a pack >7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timp Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 This is only my second full winter living in northern VT and every single synoptic storm has found a way to screw us. The southern Greens continue to get slammed in every event and the Whites are obviously better in costal setups. I thought this low going west would finally be a good one for us but nope. 6” would be amazing. The upslope is great but even that’s been less frequent than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Why are you guys pessimistic? Looks like almost all snow for you. I'm not pessimistic, I just don't need a lot to be quite content, ha. Been walking around on the same 4-5 inches of crusty stuff for a while now. I'd take even 3" to be honest to look nice. Sorry my post wasn't in relation to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, PhineasC said: They are not the best at east flow events like this. A lot of little topographical gotchas up here. Downsloping, shadowing, etc. Yeah its not even that to be honest. Any snow is good snow. We have done well on east flow events before being on the east side of Mansfield... if the flow is blocked it can really go to town. It's all in the overall set-up. This one is just weird. Like usually if a low tracks up into N.NH we'd be getting crushed in a CCB. But the upper level lows are so far west. You guys get into the best low jet dynamics as they slide up the coast. Should make hay there before the dry slot moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah its not even that to be honest. Any snow is good snow. We have done well on east flow events before being on the east side of Mansfield... if the flow is blocked it can really go to town. It's all in the overall set-up. This one is just weird. Like usually if a low tracks up into N.NH we'd be getting crushed in a CCB. But the upper level lows are so far west. You guys get into the best low jet dynamics as they slide up the coast. Should make hay there before the dry slot moves in. Yeah, you are kinda stuck in the middle on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: Yeah, you are kinda stuck in the middle on this one. Like if this was a compact storm we'd be getting smoked in a cold conveyor belt.... but it's this giant circulation with the SFC low sort of disjointed from the mid-levels. Like the 12z NAM track normally would be fantastic here if it was compact but instead the best mid-level low is way way west. It tries to curl it in but it'll be like sloppy seconds, ha. This should be the pivot point in some events that feature similar surface tracks. Of course the next event that tracks just off the coast will be a compact nuke just hitting the coastal regions . If this thing tracked by the Benchmark we'd be the perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 But man, this event is just an all out QPF firehose for you NH guys. I can't wait to see what happens in that 6 hour period when the best low level jet dynamics mix with that warm conveyor belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The mountain needs snow, so like pf said, even 6 would do wonders. The natural trails are just skied down to a hard icy crust on anything with pitch. But the coverage is overall there, if that makes any sense. Same thing with the woods…very skiable, but would be nice to cover up some of the branches and rocks a little better. I would be thrilled with 6” dense on the front, then 6” of upslope powder on the back; which is prob doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Radar just exploded and it is pounding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2” as of 7:15. Moderate snow. Breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Pounding here too, but the wind is also very strong which is annoying. Nothing on the trees lol. Still, great for the glades! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Event totals: 3.3” Snow/0.38” L.E. The overnight accumulations from Winter Storm Izzy already put down quite a shot of L.E. around here – almost 0.40” of L.E. in just this first round. Details from the 8:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.3 inches New Liquid: 0.38 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 8.7 Snow Density: 11.5% H2O Temperature: 24.1 F Sky: Snow (1-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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