NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[J.Spin]

45 minutes ago, alex said:

@powderfreakare there any decent beginner/intermediate glades in Stowe? My kids comfortably do all the glades here (well some better than others), but of course it’s a mellow mountain although they seem to handle the steeper ones better than I do. One cool thing here is that they are marked as blue/black/double black so you know what you’re getting into. Any intermediate glades in Stowe that would be good to try?

Stowe has a huge area of some of the best green circle-pitched glades you will find anywhere.  The whole Sunrise Glades/Birch Glades/Chapel Lane/Lower Toll Road/Chapel Woods area is just acres upon acres of low-angle glades that are typically well maintained and can be skied in very low snow conditions.  I know people have already been skiing them this season because I've seen PF post pictures.  With the Mt. Mansfield Stake snowpack depth at 27”, and people already skiing glades of similar elevation and pitch (Wilderness Woods/Bear Run Woods) at Bolton, so they really should be skiable now.  I’m sure PF has the beta on the conditions there.

[dmcginvt]

I mean any of the glades off of nosedive also count.  Once you come down the first 3 steeps (so it doesnt count) the woods especially skier side left are fair game for intermediates.  Bolton has amazing backcountry, but the whole of smugglers notch accessible from a few simply traverses and way more from a short hike?  Sorry, there's nothing better.  Sigh, it's not a competition but my ex lives up there in the bolton condos so...Stowe always better

[dmcginvt]

Sorry, this was one of the most verbose AFD's I've ever seen from btv, and for posterity sake I am putting it here.  

000
FXUS61 KBTV 131740
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1240 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 AM EST Thursday...Another cold night is expected from
efficient radiational cooling underneath strong surface high
pressure, light winds, and relatively clear skies. Another night
with temperatures in the -5 to -20 F range will be likely.
Still, dress accordingly if out and about late Saturday into
early Sunday morning. Southerly return flow will bring highs on
Sunday into the teens with single digits above zero for
overnight lows Sunday and into Monday.

The next system of interest will arrive early Monday morning.
Widespread snow is likely, but there`s also the potential for
several other weather hazards, including strong, easterly
downslope winds for western slopes of the southern Greens, as
well as the potential for an interval of freezing rain or
freezing drizzle in the system`s dry slot. We will continue to
monitor the evolution of this system as there still remains some
spread on the low track, but the probabilities of receiving at
least 4" of snow is around 60 to 70 percent. Additionally, given
the dynamical nature of this system, we will have to monitor
for the potential for any mesoscale banding. With that said,
let`s dive into the meteorology.

Sunday night, a compact upper low in the southern US will begin
to lift northeastward ahead of an amplifying ridge across the
western Atlantic. The upper level wave pattern will become
negatively tilted and surface low pressure along the US East
Coast will begin to deepen as it gains latitude Sunday night.
The warm frontal boundary will lift into the North Country near
or before dawn on Monday. A coupled upper jet structure with
excellent upper diffluence and strong isentropic ascent will
support widespread snow. Additionally, a band of lower SEPV will
lift northwards alongside vertical omega on the scale of -15 to
20 ubars/sec, which is quite vigorous. However, it appears the
preferred area of highest omega may be outside the DGZ. Combined
with increasing mid-level flow, this may result in more
fragmented dendrites since well below freezing boundary layer
temperatures would likely prevent much riming. These factors may
make for lower SLR values as the warm front lifts north. NAEFS
climatology places the 850hPa low in the 99th percentile of low
heights. On the other hand is the mesobanding potential
associated with the warm front. Forecast soundings depict
hodographs that favor a laterally translating band that would
lift north in tandem with the warm front. However, if the low
track remains to our south causing surface northeasterly flow
across the valleys, then a pivoting band could be an alternative
scenario. Given the conditional nature of this time, we will
wait for more mesoscale models before honing in on this
potential. Yet this feature would promote an area of moderate to
locally heavy snowfall. At this time, the translating band
appears the more likely scenario, in which case the interval of
higher snowfall rates will possibly be a short window. Again, we
will refine these details once we get in the range of mesoscale
models and start honing in on an hourly temporal resolution
over the next couple days (this system is still 4 days out after
all).

By mid-Monday morning, the situation will begin to change as a
low- level jet lifts into the region. The result will likely be
FGEN or deformation band that is a bit fragmented, with some
terrain shadowing taking place in the lower valleys, but upslope
enhancement along eastern slopes of the southern Greens and
Adirondacks. Additionally, dry air will be filtering into north
of the surface low, as the cyclone will already be matured by
the time it lifts north into the area. This could result in a
transition to freezing drizzle, as the dendritic growth zone
becomes unsaturated. The low track will also impact how far west
the low-level jet reaches. If the low tracks east of the
region, we will lie at the nose of the jet, and not see its
worst impacts. However, if the low tracks into Vermont or
northern New York, we could see 850hPa winds up to 70 to 80
knots into southern Vermont and the Adirondacks on the north
side of the low. Although conditions are not highly favorable
for mixing, these winds are quite strong, and the easterly
component is near record values of the NAEFS model climatology
at this time. With the strength of the warm advection, we could
also see temperatures climb above freezing. So a brief interval
of drizzle or rain, mainly across southern Vermont, is also a
possibility.

The next evolution in the system comes late Monday afternoon as
the system begins to lift towards Quebec City. The northwest
flow and additional shortwave energy, coincident with wrap-
around moisture, will result in some upslope snow on the
backside. This should also close out the potential for any
freezing drizzle with the DGZ saturated once again. Expect snow
to taper off to the mountains by Tuesday morning.

Then behind the system, we should receive another surge of cold
air. However, the flow aloft remains west-northwest, which may
keep the coldest air north of the international border. Still,
temperatures below seasonal normals appear likely. Then looking
at the end of the extended range forecast, it seems a clipper
system will cross nearby next Wednesday.

 

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Banacos

[dmcginvt]

This afd became:

000
FXUS61 KBTV 140247
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
947 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 259 PM EST Thursday...High pressure exists over the area
on Sunday for a continuation of dry weather, but below normal
temperatures. However, highs will not be as cold as Friday and
Saturday.

Attention turns to the low pressure system that will be
deepening and moving into the Northeast late Sunday night and
especially on Monday. At this time...it looks like widespread
precipitation is expected with this system and thermal profiles
suggest the majority of the precipitation to be in the form of
snow with several inches possible. However, cannot rule out the
possibility of some mixed precipitation, especially over
southern and eastern Vermont depending on the low track, which
still has some variability at this time. Will also need to
monitor the potential for heavy snow as warm air advection,
frontogenetic forcing, and upslope signals exist with this
system. Another item to be monitoring with this system is the
wind. Strong upslope signal exists over southern Vermont early
Monday morning for a burst of steadier snow, but downsloping
taking place along the west slopes of the Green Mountains, which
could limit precipitation at the onset. The strongest
downsloping would then be more concentrated over northeast
Vermont Monday afternoon. As the system moves northeast of the
area northwest flow aloft develops on the backside and upslope
snow will be possible over the higher terrain.

Looks like a brief break in the precipitation on Tuesday before
a low pressure system quickly moves in for Wednesday and brings
some light snow to the area.

 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

The heaviest snowfall from this frontal passage was late yesterday evening, but it continued into the overnight to add some additional accumulation.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 70.0

Snow Density: 1.4% H2O

Temperature: 26.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

[powderfreak]

10 hours ago, bch2014 said:

Is there no longer any racing on Hayride? I know you mentioned that it's the only remaining trail that hasn't seen snow guns, which surprised me, since I thought it often hosts races. I like that trail quite a bit, especially in the spring. What's the rationale on blowing, say, Gulch (a relatively obscure bump run) over a wide trail like Hayride?

Hayride hasn't been the race trail for a good decade or more now since they put the Sensation Quad in and blasted out the Main Street Race Course.  That's where all the UVM Winter Carnival races along with Eastern Cup and other Pro-am races have taken place.  It's much nicer IMO to have the racers more isolated to that area of the hill as I remember in college having Hayride all netted up and marked off definitely cut down on access to key woods like Tres Amigos and shots on both sides of Hayride.  It's clunky to hold big races there in the middle of the hill.

When looking at snowmaking choices, the buildout has always been intermediate terrain off Quad first, then open Gondola with Perry, then Nosedive and start building out on Spruce (Sunny Quad), then Gondolier and Liftline... historically ending with Hayride.  Snowmaking capacity is what dictates the smaller trails like Gulch... as often they can run one big trail (say 75-100 guns) plus a smaller trail with say 20-30 guns.  Of course air and water capacities and temperatures play into it, but that's how you get smaller runs going in tandem with the big projects.  Hayride is a monster project though, I think top to bottom that trail has the most hydrants on it... though Nosedive is right up there too.  Both of those usually eat up all capacity.

[bch2014]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Hayride hasn't been the race trail for a good decade or more now since they put the Sensation Quad in and blasted out the Main Street Race Course.  That's where all the UVM Winter Carnival races along with Eastern Cup and other Pro-am races have taken place.  It's much nicer IMO to have the racers more isolated to that area of the hill as I remember in college having Hayride all netted up and marked off definitely cut down on access to key woods like Tres Amigos and shots on both sides of Hayride.  It's clunky to hold big races there in the middle of the hill.

When looking at snowmaking choices, the buildout has always been intermediate terrain off Quad first, then open Gondola with Perry, then Nosedive and start building out on Spruce (Sunny Quad), then Gondolier and Liftline... historically ending with Hayride.  Snowmaking capacity is what dictates the smaller trails like Gulch... as often they can run one big trail (say 75-100 guns) plus a smaller trail with say 20-30 guns.  Of course air and water capacities and temperatures play into it, but that's how you get smaller runs going in tandem with the big projects.  Hayride is a monster project though, I think top to bottom that trail has the most hydrants on it... though Nosedive is right up there too.  Both of those usually eat up all capacity.

Makes sense-Agree that Main St is less disruptive to the general public's skiing experience than Hayride.

[mreaves]

BTV NWS forecast through Tuesday.  I'm still leery about Monday petering out for us but there is no way I am posting that thought in the main storm thread. If we get 6" I'll be happy. Looks pretty wintry and the low temps for tonight and tomorrow night have ticked colder of the last couple of days. 

 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.2” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

From what I can see in the BTV NWS forecast discussion, today’s ongoing snowfall is still associated with the current frontal boundary, so I’ll continue to roll the totals into that event.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 25.2 F

Sky: Light Snow (4-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

[J.Spin]

59 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I'm still leery about Monday petering out for us but there is no way I am posting that thought in the main storm thread.

I’m still checking on it, but that thread seems to become more of a gripe-fest and less of an analysis session with each passing model run.  The tenor has been moving that way for the past couple of days because the weenies are in this quasi-combative state where some have apparently “checked out” or whatever, and others are still hoping for dramatic changes in the track/behavior of the system, or fine with whatever happens.  It creates a clash.  Hasn’t just about every major model been portraying this potential system as some sort of “inland runner” for days at this point?  But, as usual, the analysis in the main thread has been heavily slanted toward figuring out any, in some cases almost inconceivable, convoluted way in which the model output shows some sort of improvement for SNE in terms of wintry weather.  If the models had shown a system somewhere around the benchmark for run after run after run like this, we’d probably instead be reading “The models always sniff out the big ones well in advance”, or something along those lines”.  I’m not sure I’ve seen that uttered once in there despite how consistent so many runs have been showing this in similar locations – and we’re still days out.  In any case, kudos to the folks like Tip and Ginx who noted the signals for a significant event in that Monday timeframe at a long lead, but one wonders if that big lead time just served to get the weenies excited for some sort of perfect winter storm.  We still don’t even know exactly how this system will play out because it’s days away.

[PhineasC]

LOL yeah it's a disaster over there.

12z Euro looked good for NNE and had a solid upslope signal too after the storm passes for areas that miss out a little on the coastal (far northern VT, for example). This stuff just seems to balance out in the end. Pretty broad precip shield though, so no one in NNE really get skunked from the coastal unless we are talking closer to coastal ME where they get rain.

[bwt3650]

Im hoping the upslope saves it because it that’s quite the hole up here.  Still think we hit double digits by the end of the cycle, but the initial isn’t looking stellar.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Im hoping the upslope saves it because it that’s quite the hole up here.  Still think we hit double digits by the end of the cycle, but the initial isn’t looking stellar.

I am not totally familiar with the geography up there, but you are facing NW right? This is an east flow event from the coastal (it's not really a coastal anyway) but I'm sure when the winds shift you will get buried in fluff with all the residual moisture around and it's not like the low escapes to the east, it goes right over NNE. Should wrap some stuff around I would think. Anyway, mesos will reveal more about banding as we go forward.

[MRVexpat]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am not totally familiar with the geography up there, but you are facing NW right? This is an east flow event from the coastal but I'm sure when the winds shift you will get buried in fluff with all the residual moisture around and it's not like the low escapes to the east, it goes right over NNE. Should wrap some stuff around I would think.

Yeah the low placement seems nearly ideal, its just that it moves out of the area fairly quickly. I'd like to think those areas (esp Jay and Stowe) are good for a decent topping of fluff after the main event. 

[klw]

(Moving this from the other thread to here)  I am going over for me because, for some reason, it feels like I see good snows on both MLK Day and January 17.  With it being both, I am irrationally expecting to bust high.

[mreaves]

33 minutes ago, klw said:

(Moving this from the other thread to here)  I am going over for me because, for some reason, it feels like I see good snows on both MLK Day and January 17.  With it being both, I am irrationally expecting to bust high.

MLK kicked off 2007 for me.  It was a sleety 8"-9" that held on with some small refreshers until Valentine's Day and then it was a crushing for the rest of winter.

[klw]

BTV has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Monday:
https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ005&warncounty=VTC007&firewxzone=VTZ005&local_place1=Burlington VT&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=44.4836&lon=-73.2114#.YeHdJP7MJPY
For the
  Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 12 inches possible across northern New
  York and portions of south-central Vermont, while 5 to 8 inches
  across the Champlain Valley and northern Vermont. Winds could
  gust as high as 35 mph.

[jculligan]

12z Euro ensembles couldn't be much more ideal for my area. 60% probability of 12"+ right imby. I think we have quite the thump coming up this way.

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I like 5-10” up north here once upslope is in.  Say 3-5” dense synoptic and 3-5” NW flow.

I recently got a text message that BTV NWS has put up a Winter Storm Watch, and I see klw has some text posted.  They’ve got that 5-8” for NVT, so certainly in the range of what you’re thinking.  I suspect the Wind Chill Warning is superseding the Winter Storm Watch on BTV NWS advisories map, so there’s not really a useful graphic to post for that yet.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I am not totally familiar with the geography up there, but you are facing NW right? This is an east flow event from the coastal (it's not really a coastal anyway) but I'm sure when the winds shift you will get buried in fluff with all the residual moisture around and it's not like the low escapes to the east, it goes right over NNE. Should wrap some stuff around I would think. Anyway, mesos will reveal more about banding as we go forward.

Jay Peak ski area faces east actually (it has a lot of prominence from Newport area) but it’s also a Spine so it gets enhancement from all angles.  I bet meso-models will increase the Jay Peak QPF.  The real trick here is to look at the 850mb velocities and you can see where the jet tracks and why certain areas get more precip.  It’s not as cut and dry as aspect.

[powderfreak]

Can see the better lower jet dynamics track NEward and that’s what is bringing most of that lift.  The nose of the jet goes from like Berkshires and S/C VT up into NH/ME.  Less velocity means less upglide over the cold dome.  Higher velocities should see higher precipitation.

850mb

700mb

[mreaves]

BTV's map

[powderfreak]

I like this first stab at it.

[powderfreak]

Ninja’d!  Wow that was close @mreaves, haha.

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Ninja’d!  Wow that was close @mreaves, haha.

Lol.  Both thinking the same thing

[bwt3650]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I like this first stab at it.

This would be before the upslope takes over, correct?  6-8 of wet snow followed by 6 of light powder sounds decent.  With that low track and llj you mentioned, I would think the obscene wind would be to the east of the spine?

[PhineasC]

Gotta feel for the MLK weekend skiers tomorrow. Holy moly. 

[Lava Rock]

3 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Im hoping the upslope saves it because it that’s quite the hole up here.  Still think we hit double digits by the end of the cycle, but the initial isn’t looking stellar.

Jay will report 24"

[PhineasC]

Rapid temp drop from the low 20s to 12 now. 

[bwt3650]

14 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Jay will report 24"

Already have.  Can always adjust higher.