NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[PhineasC]

Starting to see a better upslope signal on the models after this Friday OTS low passes to our NE. That could be the saving grace for us.

12z GFS is pretty healthy in the usual spots.

[zeepowderhunter]

18 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Starting to see a better upslope signal on the models after this Friday OTS low passes to our NE. That could be the saving grace for us.

12z GFS is pretty healthy in the usual spots.

Was looking at that myself! Planning on skiing Jay this weekend if something falls. I’m a complete snow snob and not driving for just hard groomers!! 

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, zeepowderhunter said:

Was looking at that myself! Planning on skiing Jay this weekend if something falls. I’m a complete snow snob and not driving for just hard groomers!! 

I think we could see this signal increase as we get closer. 4-6 might be reasonable for most spots. Usual caveats apply. Could save this event for us. Fingers crossed. 

[wxeyeNH]

Phin's webcam is great.  I can see the wind blowing as he is above the cold air.  Meanwhile way down here it is still very cold  24F, almost noon.  Nice snow refresher this morning. 

[#NoPoles]

9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Phin's webcam is great.  I can see the wind blowing as he is above the cold air.  Meanwhile way down here it is still very cold  24F, almost noon.  Nice snow refresher this morning. 

The wind is ripping up here. The current temp/elevation profiles are fascinating

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Starting to see a better upslope signal on the models after this Friday OTS low passes to our NE. That could be the saving grace for us.

12z GFS is pretty healthy in the usual spots.

 

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I think we could see this signal increase as we get closer. 4-6 might be reasonable for most spots. Usual caveats apply. Could save this event for us. Fingers crossed. 

For us not being entrenched in January arctic air, I’d say the number of events has been surprisingly slow for this first week of January – usually those arctic outbreaks when the air is incredibly dry and the storm track is pushed south are our slowest midwinter times.

It’s looking like we’ll get into a bit more of a bread and butter pattern going forward over the next week though, with potential systems tomorrow, Friday, Sunday/Monday, Tuesday, and then next Wednesday depending on the model.  And it rolls along with a few more beyond that if you just step though the most recent deterministic run of the GFS.  Beyond a week it’s just a pattern check of course vs. nailing individual systems, but the theme is there.

We’re about 20” behind average snowfall pace at our site now, so there’s some ground to make up.  I’d suspect the usual assortment of bread and butter systems would allow us to keep pace, but probably not gain any ground – we’d need a bigger synoptic system or upslope event for that.

[wxeyeNH]

29.4F   Just couldn't make it to freezing today.    CAD always rules here.  

[PhineasC]

Full coverage glacier still hanging on here but it's getting really tired looking. We need a real snowstorm. Hopefully Friday can at least be a 2 inch refresher to whiten the pack before the next arctic blast. BW really needs snow. I'm sure it's the same deal over in VT too. The snow on the groomers is worn out.

[qg_omega]

[PhineasC]

The trend today is for the Friday storm to get up to SNE and then exit mostly due east which kinda screws us on upslope potential.

[alex]

Ironically we lost more snow today than during the “cutter” that everyone feared 

[jculligan]

1 hour ago, alex said:

Ironically we lost more snow today than during the “cutter” that everyone feared 

Made it up to 37F here today, but the snow is so glaciated at this point I don't really think we lost much over this way. I have a very crusty 5" base out there right now. Depth wise, we're roughly on par with last year at this time, then we had an 8" event on 1/16 that brought the depth to more than a foot. 

These are some lean times in the White Mountains for sure. Luckily the winter is long, and I'm eternally optimistic that things can turn around. February, March, and even April can be really good around here....so here's to hoping for a back-ended winter.

[alex]

36 minutes ago, jculligan said:

Made it up to 37F here today, but the snow is so glaciated at this point I don't really think we lost much over this way. I have a very crusty 5" base out there right now. Depth wise, we're roughly on par with last year at this time, then we had an 8" event on 1/16 that brought the depth to more than a foot. 

These are some lean times in the White Mountains for sure. Luckily the winter is long, and I'm eternally optimistic that things can turn around. February, March, and even April can be really good around here....so here's to hoping for a back-ended winter.

And while it’s definitely lean, we also need to remember that we have had more snow days so far in this awful season than most people in most of the country see amo am average winter. It’s nice to have climatology by your side. What sucks the most to me is the fact that glades can’t open. That’s my favorite thing. 

[jculligan]

14 minutes ago, alex said:

And while it’s definitely lean, we also need to remember that we have had more snow days so far in this awful season than most people in most of the country see amo am average winter. It’s nice to have climatology by your side. What sucks the most to me is the fact that glades can’t open. That’s my favorite thing. 

And I'm more of a backcountry skier than I am a resort skier. GBA glades, the Sherburne and Gulf of Slides ski trails on Mount Washington, the Tucker Brook ski trail on the backside of Cannon, the Doublehead ski trail right in my backyard, etc. Obviously none of that is happening right now. In time, hopefully.

[alex]

0.2 this morning. Which at this rate is more than we'll see from the upcoming storm!

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

I found 0.2” of fluff on the boards this morning with some flakes falling.  I thought it might be from the lake-effect snow that some of the models have shown coming off Lake Ontario, but checking the direction of the flow on the radar and reading the BTV NWS forecast discussion suggests it’s from a cold front pushing though Vermont this morning.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 30.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (4-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

[PhineasC]

Picked up a half inch. 

[PhineasC]

Hoping for 2 inches Friday to refresh the pack at least. This reminds me of last Feb when everything missed to the south. 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Hoping for 2 inches Friday to refresh the pack at least. This reminds me of last Feb when everything missed to the south. 

This is the first one though right?  The last one missed north.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is the first one though right?  The last one missed north.

Well I meant that storm down in the MA. Some early runs had that getting up the coast. Just can’t get anything to climb up here lately. 

[PhineasC]

Decent little burst here now. 27 degrees. 

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Hoping for 2 inches Friday to refresh the pack at least. This reminds me of last Feb when everything missed to the south. 

 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

This is the first one though right?  The last one missed north.

Is that what last February was like?  I checked my data (February 2021 storms listed below) and I’m seeing two systems that might qualify as “missing to the south” – it looks like Quade and Viola might fit (outside of bench mark) based on the descriptors for each of the February storms that hit here.  But then you’ve got far more storms like Orlena, Peggy, Roland, Uri, etc. that moved through, or even north of New England.

I guess there could be some storms that didn’t get into my data because they only get in if accumulation is recorded here at our site, but that would be surprising based on what I recall from the tenor of last season.  Didn’t the folks in SNE consider last season a dud?  We had 47.2” of snow last February here at our site.  That’s decent, but I have a hard time imagining anyone in SNE or the Mid-Atlantic had that much snow last February – for most sites down there that would literally make their season by being above their entire season average or getting them there in combination with whatever other snow they picked up.  I don’t really have a sense that it was that great down there, unless all the storms missed everyone entirely and were out to sea?

The feeling that storms missed to the south last February could be perspective from online media interaction as well.  Even though our winter climate up here is vastly different from that of SNE, we wind up being linked with that area because the American Weather sub-forum covers all of New England.  SNE has the big cities and population areas, so the forum is sort of centered around storms that affect that area.  Meanwhile, a system focused on Montreal to the north of us gets jack squat with respect to attention - the bulk of the forum has probably checked out of extensive online discussion because they’re getting rain.  It’s possible that the forum setup exaggerates the apparent frequency of storms that are focused farther to the south?

Sure, last February wasn’t a 70” or 80” month up here in terms of snowfall (perhaps at the resorts), but 12 storms (average is 10 to 11 storms) and almost 50” of snow (average is ~40”) still seems like we weren’t shortchanged heavily by that pattern.  If someone to the south had a 70”, 80”, or 100” month last February (I believe Coastal had a month like that one season a while back?) I think we would have heard about it.

 

Here’s the storm listing from last February at our site:

1)    10.2” – 2/2/21 - Winter Storm Orlena - slow moving system along Northeast coast

2)    7.4” – 2/5/21 - Winter Storm Peggy - deep, mature cyclone moving north through the Great Lakes

3)    0.1 – 2/6/21 - LES behind occluded boundary due to persistent southwesterly flow aloft

4)    3.3” – 2/7/21 - Winter Storm Quade - coastal storm south of benchmark coupled to northern stream trough

5)    8.2” – 2/9/21 - Winter Storm Roland - weak wave of low pressure passing south of the region

6)    0.1” – 2/11/21 - Weak upper-level disturbance

7)    4.5” – 2/15/21 - Winter Storm Uri - low pressure moving through New England with mixed precipitation

8)    7.7” – 2/19/21 - Winter Storm Viola - low SE of benchmark with multiple shortwaves in deep SW flow

9)    3.0” – 2/22/21 - Low pressure system from Great Lakes passing through New England

10)  0.5” – 2/23/21 - Well-defined shortwave troughs to north and south moving eastward through area

11)  1.8” – 2/24/21 - Low pressure system passing just north of area

12)  0.4” – 2/2721 - Warm front associated with weak frontal system

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Is that what last February was like?  I checked my data (February 2021 storms listed below) and I’m seeing two systems that might qualify as “missing to the south” – it looks like Quade and Viola might fit (outside of bench mark) based on the descriptors for each of the February storms that hit here.  But then you’ve got far more storms like Orlena, Peggy, Roland, Uri, etc. that moved through, or even north of New England.

I guess there could be some storms that didn’t get into my data because they only get in if accumulation is recorded here at our site, but that would be surprising based on what I recall from the tenor of last season.  Didn’t the folks in SNE consider last season a dud?  We had 47.2” of snow last February here at our site.  That’s decent, but I have a hard time imagining anyone in SNE or the Mid-Atlantic had that much snow last February – for most sites down there that would literally make their season by being above their entire season average or getting them there in combination with whatever other snow they picked up.  I don’t really have a sense that it was that great down there, unless all the storms missed everyone entirely and were out to sea?

The feeling that storms missed to the south last February could be perspective from online media interaction as well.  Even though our winter climate up here is vastly different from that of SNE, we wind up being linked with that area because the American Weather sub-forum covers all of New England.  SNE has the big cities and population areas, so the forum is sort of centered around storms that affect that area.  Meanwhile, a system focused on Montreal to the north of us gets jack squat with respect to attention - the bulk of the forum has probably checked out of extensive online discussion because they’re getting rain.  It’s possible that the forum setup exaggerates the apparent frequency of storms that are focused farther to the south?

Sure, last February wasn’t a 70” or 80” month up here in terms of snowfall (perhaps at the resorts), but 12 storms (average is 10 to 11 storms) and almost 50” of snow (average is ~40”) still seems like we weren’t shortchanged heavily by that pattern.  If someone to the south had a 70”, 80”, or 100” month last February (I believe Coastal had a month like that one season a while back?) I think we would have heard about it.

 

Here’s the storm listing from last February at our site:

1)    10.2” – 2/2/21 - Winter Storm Orlena - slow moving system along Northeast coast

2)    7.4” – 2/5/21 - Winter Storm Peggy - deep, mature cyclone moving north through the Great Lakes

3)    0.1 – 2/6/21 - LES behind occluded boundary due to persistent southwesterly flow aloft

4)    3.3” – 2/7/21 - Winter Storm Quade - coastal storm south of benchmark coupled to northern stream trough

5)    8.2” – 2/9/21 - Winter Storm Roland - weak wave of low pressure passing south of the region

6)    0.1” – 2/11/21 - Weak upper-level disturbance

7)    4.5” – 2/15/21 - Winter Storm Uri - low pressure moving through New England with mixed precipitation

8)    7.7” – 2/19/21 - Winter Storm Viola - low SE of benchmark with multiple shortwaves in deep SW flow

9)    3.0” – 2/22/21 - Low pressure system from Great Lakes passing through New England

10)  0.5” – 2/23/21 - Well-defined shortwave troughs to north and south moving eastward through area

11)  1.8” – 2/24/21 - Low pressure system passing just north of area

12)  0.4” – 2/2721 - Warm front associated with weak frontal system

SNE down through NJ had a monster Feb by their standards, IIRC. Biggest in a long time. Several nice synoptic events.

I did OK in Feb, but it was all 2" nickel and dime from upslope here other than the storm on the 2nd.

[J.Spin]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

SNE down through NJ had a monster Feb by their standards, IIRC. Biggest in a long time. Several nice synoptic events.

I did OK in Feb, but it was all 2" nickel and dime from upslope here other than the storm on the 2nd.

Man, what’s all the griping been about in the forum threads then?  I swear I keep hearing people from SNE saying they haven’t had a good season in something like 3 or 4 seasons, but perhaps that’s just a vocal minority.

I don’t really hear as much about Mid-Atlantic snowfall, so I can’t say for that area, but I just heard on TWC that the snow D.C. just had was the biggest in a couple of years, so it seemed like things had been pretty lean.

You know, now that I think of it, I do recall hearing about places in New Jersey or thereabouts that had a really good stretch at some point last year, but one would think it didn’t extend much into SNE the way they’ve seemed to be griping?  Or maybe it was just weenie unrealistic expectations and such.

The thing is, you probably still had more than double the season snowfall of anyone south of you last season, so there’s that perspective to think about as well.

[PhineasC]

Just now, J.Spin said:

Man, what’s all the griping been about in the forum threads then?  I swear I keep hearing people from SNE saying they haven’t had a good season in something like 3 or 4 seasons, but perhaps that’s just a vocal minority.

I don’t really hear as much about Mid-Atlantic snowfall, so I can’t say for that area, but I just heard on TWC that the snow D.C. just had was the biggest in a couple of years, so it seemed like things had been pretty lean.

You know, now that I think of it, I do recall hearing about places in New Jersey or thereabouts that had a really good stretch at some point last year, but one would think it didn’t extend much into SNE the way they’ve seemed to be griping?  Or maybe it was just weenie unrealistic expectations and such.

The thing is, you probably still had more than double the season snowfall of anyone south of you last season, so there’s that perspective to think about as well.

"Lean" is not even a strong enough word for what's been going on in DC the last several winters. Non-existent is probably a more apt term.  

I am not sure where last Feb ranked for SNE and NJ, I think I heard in parts of NJ it was top 3 at least.

Oh yeah, not complaining here. Last winter was fine and this winter has been better here for snowcover so far. Also had snow in the air a good amount.

A nice meaty event is needed across the NNE mountains; it'll come eventually.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Well I meant that storm down in the MA. Some early runs had that getting up the coast. Just can’t get anything to climb up here lately. 

Ah gotcha.  Yeah over the last many years you just get used to nor'easters being more coastal plain storms, ha.  You look for the other storms that don't snow in those areas.  It's a tough habit to break though, always wanting to be included in those big ticket items.  We'll get the consistent snow cover and some good storms, and they'll get the occasional big moisture laden ocean storm.

[bwt3650]

42 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

"Lean" is not even a strong enough word for what's been going on in DC the last several winters. Non-existent is probably a more apt term.  

I am not sure where last Feb ranked for SNE and NJ, I think I heard in parts of NJ it was top 3 at least.

Oh yeah, not complaining here. Last winter was fine and this winter has been better here for snowcover so far. Also had snow in the air a good amount.

A nice meaty event is needed across the NNE mountains; it'll come eventually.

Nah, probably not top 3 in NJ, but a very good Feb.  One storm was about 20", so that gets you about half of the seasonal total alone.  There was a 3 week stretch where it was like an NJ version of bread and butter, and a decent December storm, but not wall to wall.  March 2018 was just as good if not better....so were 13-14 and 14-15.

I'm with you waiting for a solid, meaty foot plus up at Jay.  It hasn't been terrible, but we need that one storm that gets all the natural and glades open.  I looked back at last year and the trail count on January 10th was similar to what it is now; so I guess no need to panic yet.  I think MLK was that solid week where we saw 36 or so inches that got things going.  We need one of those storms that dumps a foot of high water snow, then tracks into the GOM for a few days of bread and butter.

[bwt3650]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ah gotcha.  Yeah over the last many years you just get used to nor'easters being more coastal plain storms, ha.  You look for the other storms that don't snow in those areas.  It's a tough habit to break though, always wanting to be included in those big ticket items.  We'll get the consistent snow cover and some good storms, and they'll get the occasional big moisture laden ocean storm.

Just want one to open up the woods...then nickel and dime it all winter long.

[tamarack]

39 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

"Lean" is not even a strong enough word for what's been going on in DC the last several winters. Non-existent is probably a more apt term.  

I am not sure where last Feb ranked for SNE and NJ, I think I heard in parts of NJ it was top 3 at least.

Oh yeah, not complaining here. Last winter was fine and this winter has been better here for snowcover so far. Also had snow in the air a good amount.

A nice meaty event is needed across the NNE mountains; it'll come eventually.

I grew up in Morris County, NJ, and several sites there had more snow last February than I had all winter.  As for top 3, most NNJ sites with PORs 60+ years would have had 6-7 winters with more snow, as the months other than February were pretty lean.  Poking around in cocorahs, mostly on big-Feb sites, I failed to find any with full-season snow above the mid 60s, and 47-48, 57-58, 60-61, 66-67, 77-78, 95-96 and 10-11 had considerably more than that.

[PhineasC]

What are the thoughts for Friday? GFS still prints out some decent upslope, RGEM is also pretty good as a signal.