NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

This freeze really seemed to happen without much warning – no thanks to the main October discussion thread of course, with the heat obsession dominating the conversation.  It’s also past the end of growing season, so the BTV NWS didn’t have any frost/freeze alerts up.  The calls for no snow or freezes through the entirety month really were horrible though, since we’ve now had both, with another week to go. 

You know it’s a decent freeze in the area though if we get down to 30F at our location, since the warmth of the river and the fog usually protect us for a while.

It looks like the next chance for flakes is actually tomorrow night into Monday per the Mansfield point forecast:

You should embrace the nice weather. Take the elastic out, let the hair whip to and fro, and enjoy Torchtober.

[PhineasC]

Still no freeze here on the hill. 34 was the low. Looks like Alex hit 36 so we weren’t really radiating over here. It was close and we should get there soon. As usual my temp dropped to 34 very fast and then sat there from midnight to now. 

[powderfreak]

29 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

This freeze really seemed to happen without much warning – no thanks to the main October discussion thread of course, with the heat obsession dominating the conversation.  It’s also past the end of growing season, so the BTV NWS didn’t have any frost/freeze alerts up.  The calls for no snow or freezes through the entirety month really were horrible though, since we’ve now had both, with another week to go. 

You know it’s a decent freeze in the area though if we get down to 30F at our location, since the warmth of the river and the fog usually protect us for a while.

It looks like the next chance for flakes is actually tomorrow night into Monday per the Mansfield point forecast:

Yeah last night was not modeled or forecast well.  It got colder than expected by a good 5-7F in a lot of spots.

First map is the forecast and second map is 6am temps (actual minimums likely a tick cooler):

[tamarack]

58 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Still no freeze here on the hill. 34 was the low. Looks like Alex hit 36 so we weren’t really radiating over here. It was close and we should get there soon. As usual my temp dropped to 34 very fast and then sat there from midnight to now. 

Another evening with clear 40s turning into a cloudy morning with mid-upper 30s.  Happened about 5 times this month without dropping below the 34 on 9/29.  Now 17 days beyond my previous 1st frost and unless tomorrow morning drops to 32 or below we may ride frost free into November.  October is running +4.9 and is looking to our 2nd mildest of 24, slightly above 2007.  The +6.3 of 2017 is out of reach unless we bag 3-4 days of 60s - not happening here.  (And I'd take either of the winters following those Octobers.)  

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Another evening with clear 40s turning into a cloudy morning with mid-upper 30s.  Happened about 5 times this month without dropping below the 34 on 9/29.  Now 17 days beyond my previous 1st frost and unless tomorrow morning drops to 32 or below we may ride frost free into November.  October is running +4.9 and is looking to our 2nd mildest of 24, slightly above 2007.  The +6.3 of 2017 is out of reach unless we bag 3-4 days of 60s - not happening here.  (And I'd take either of the winters following those Octobers.)  

Let's hope a warm October snapping to a cold November is a good thing for winter.

[PhineasC]

Still holding at 38 under some sun so this was a decently chilly airmass. I am surprised Alex can't get to 32. I usually struggle to radiate but not him.

[tamarack]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Let's hope a warm October snapping to a cold November is a good thing for winter.

Mildest October (2017) - 105.5" in 17-18

2nd mildest (2007) - 142.3" in 07-08

Number 3 (2014) - 112.8" in 14-15

4th place (2010) - 100.5" in 10-11

We take.  (Though it took the 15" dump of April Fools 2011 to crack the century mark.)

[PhineasC]

12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Mildest October (2017) - 105.5" in 17-18

2nd mildest (2007) - 142.3" in 07-08

Number 3 (2014) - 112.8" in 14-15

4th place (2010) - 100.5" in 10-11

We take.  (Though it took the 15" dump of April Fools 2011 to crack the century mark.)

For here:

17-18 - 190.5"

14-15 - 174.7"

10-11 - 240.9" !!!

No ratters there, obviously. I don't have data for 07 - 08.

 

[ORH_wxman]

40 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

For here:

17-18 - 190.5"

14-15 - 174.7"

10-11 - 240.9" !!!

No ratters there, obviously. I don't have data for 07 - 08.

 

If you had data for 2007-2008 there is a good chance that would be snowier than the other ones. That was a monster winter. 

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You should embrace the nice weather. Take the elastic out, let the hair whip to and fro, and enjoy Torchtober.

The weather has been fantastic; less so the weenie obsession with “Torchtober” generally crowding out other discussion, such as a potential frost/freeze situation.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, J.Spin said:

The weather has been fantastic; less so the weenie obsession with “Torchtober” generally crowding out other discussion, such as a potential frost/freeze situation.

It’s been warm with no real frost or freeze though. Not sure what else to talk about? People are just having fun and joking around. I don’t see the harm. The discussion will get back on track when some cooler weather comes.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you had data for 2007-2008 there is a good chance that would be snowier than the other ones. That was a monster winter. 

That was JSpin’s top winter I believe too.  It was big.

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

For here:

17-18 - 190.5"

14-15 - 174.7"

10-11 - 240.9" !!!

No ratters there, obviously. I don't have data for 07 - 08.

 

2010-2011 is my personal favorite winter since I’ve been up north.  Upslope and synoptic.  Most of the synoptic snows seemed to trend better and better as storms got closer.  What would look like suppression depression would be a foot in the last 36 hours of runs.

The N/W trend was real that winter.  And there were some monster upslope storms of several feet.

[powderfreak]

Finalized morning lows.  Coldest night for the BTV warning area by a long shot this fall… and only a few degrees below normal .

[tamarack]

51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

2010-2011 is my personal favorite winter since I’ve been up north.  Upslope and synoptic.  Most of the synoptic snows seemed to trend better and better as storms got closer.  What would look like suppression depression would be a foot in the last 36 hours of runs.

The N/W trend was real that winter.  And there were some monster upslope storms of several feet.

Despite reaching 100", 2010-11 was somewhat disappointing, especially the 12/26 to 1/12 stretch when BGR/WVL/AUG each had 2 blizzard-criteria storms totaling 20-30" while we had marginal WSW events.  Barely grazed by the late January storm and low end for Feb 1-2.  Far less frustrating (and not as good) than 14-15, but lots of what ifs.

[powderfreak]

5 years ago a foot fell on the hill.

[mreaves]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

5 years ago a foot fell on the hill.

And winter was ruined 

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

And winter was ruined 

Huh?  I think you're a year off.  Five years ago we were heading into 2016-17 and my 127.5" is #3 of 23 snow seasons here.  Had 21" storms in Dec and Feb plus the Pi-Day blizzard.  Did it stink farther west?

[PhineasC]

Sure am glad there is at least some more seasonable temps in the picture now to get this thread moving a little more.

Let's hope for a cold and snowy November.

[powderfreak]

44 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Huh?  I think you're a year off.  Five years ago we were heading into 2016-17 and my 127.5" is #3 of 23 snow seasons here.  Had 21" storms in Dec and Feb plus the Pi-Day blizzard.  Did it stink farther west?

That was a monster winter. 375” at 3,000ft.  The most snow at the High Road plot during my time here.  It didn’t seem *as* great down in town but the hill just snowed and snowed.  Like 100+” in 3 weeks all in pure champagne powder during late Jan to mid Feb I think.  

[tamarack]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That was a monster winter. 375” at 3,000ft.  The most snow at the High Road plot during my time here.  It didn’t seem *as* great down in town but the hill just snowed and snowed.  Like 100+” in 3 weeks all in pure champagne powder during late Jan to mid Feb I think.  

We got our 19-month-old Dudley Lab (yellow Lab with pink nose) on Feb. 4, 2017, through New England Lab Rescue.  Her first life was in TX and Maine's reception was less than gentle.  From Feb 7 thru the 16th we had storms of 5.2", 4.6", 8.0", 21.0" and 6.2".  And the Pi Day blizzard (15.5") was the storm that most scared the poor pooch - had to be dragged off the porch to do her business.

[klw]

On 10/18/2021 at 5:07 PM, Redmorninglight said:

Hello NNE’ers

 After looking for a place for almost a year, my wife and I are in the process of purchasing some land in the Adirondacks. It is near Garnet Lake in Warren Co. and has an elevation ranging from 1700’ to 2300’. I know this isn’t New England, but I thought some of you folks might give me an idea of how much snow I can expect on an average winter? Gore Mountain is about 25 minutes away to the north with a similar base elevation. They claim 150” annual, but not sure if that mid-mountain. Super excited to close on this place and start fixing the 1880 house up. 

BTV put out a new snowfall climo map:

 

There is a discussion with it as well:

https://www.weather.gov/btv/climoSnowfall

[mreaves]

4 hours ago, tamarack said:

Huh?  I think you're a year off.  Five years ago we were heading into 2016-17 and my 127.5" is #3 of 23 snow seasons here.  Had 21" storms in Dec and Feb plus the Pi-Day blizzard.  Did it stink farther west?

That was the joke. October snow ruining winter. 

[Redmorninglight]

1 hour ago, klw said:

BTV put out a new snowfall climo map:

 

There is a discussion with it as well:

https://www.weather.gov/btv/climoSnowfall

Thanks klw.  I’m one county south of that map, but if Newcomb gets between 100-125 at 1600’ elevation I figure I can count on something similar being a bit south but 200-400’ higher. I’m very close to Garnet Lake and Crane Mountain. 

[powderfreak]

50 minutes ago, Redmorninglight said:

Thanks klw.  I’m one county south of that map, but if Newcomb gets between 100-125 at 1600’ elevation I figure I can count on something similar being a bit south but 200-400’ higher. I’m very close to Garnet Lake and Crane Mountain. 

How far from Warrensburg?  I grew up skiing at Gore and spent a lot of time in that area through high school as a budding snow weenie.  If you are near 2,000ft, it’s plenty cold and snowy to have good snowpack on the ground all winter.  CAD spot there in the upper Hudson River and eastern Adirondacks.  It stays cold in those nooks.

[#NoPoles]

Probably going to get our first hard freeze tonight 

[alex]

10 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Still holding at 38 under some sun so this was a decently chilly airmass. I am surprised Alex can't get to 32. I usually struggle to radiate but not him.

We couldn't radiate... It was cloudy until this morning 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Probably going to get our first hard freeze tonight 

Yeah looks like a more widespread freeze tonight.  Temps already 34-39F over a wide area and dews at the ASOS stations were 28-32F this afternoon.  If radiational conditions persist all night most spots will be in the 20s tomorrow morning.

I saw BML and HIE had the lowest afternoon dew points so if it stays clear I’d assume they could do mid/upper 20s with ease?

Locally already some calm 34s showing up west and east of Mansfield in Underhill and Stowe.

[Redmorninglight]

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

How far from Warrensburg?  I grew up skiing at Gore and spent a lot of time in that area through high school as a budding snow weenie.  If you are near 2,000ft, it’s plenty cold and snowy to have good snowpack on the ground all winter.  CAD spot there in the upper Hudson River and eastern Adirondacks.  It stays cold in those nooks.

About 20 minutes WNW of Warrensburgh, 30 minutes due south of Gore. It’s not a done deal yet, but hoping to close on the property within 2 weeks. Lots of work to do on the old house, but there is a cool little cottage as well. It’s all off the grid with solar. 

[PhineasC]

Still 37 here. Temp is stuck as usual. We will see what happens overnight but it doesn't have the feel to me of a night that drops all that much. Freeze may have to wait here.