PhineasC Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 Just some clouds here today, no snow unless I blinked and missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 Ugly cutter on the 12z Euro for after New Years. Hopefully it dampens out like the GFS shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 GFS has led the way with these last few events and then the other models came on board 48-72 hours out. Would like to start seeing some positive trends on the Euro by 0z thursday if there's any hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Getting some unexpected heavy snow squalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2021 Author Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Definitely trying to keep last winter in perspective. It was not until the mid-January storm that things really got going here. Hoping the New Years cutter doesn't wipe out the fragile pack we all have built. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 I feel like the big draw of an electric is for the person that makes a regular commute and has a garage to charge overnight. They'll rarely to never use a charger besides at home. The same kind of person that probably already has a gas or hybrid suv for longer trips. People who are using them for more than very occasional long trips now are early adopter types who are ok with the extra pain. Won't take that long to cover more and more use cases as range increases and there are more and more chargers that can work faster and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 22 minutes ago, bobbutts said: I feel like the big draw of an electric is for the person that makes a regular commute and has a garage to charge overnight. They'll rarely to never use a charger besides at home. The same kind of person that probably already has a gas or hybrid suv for longer trips. People who are using them for more than very occasional long trips now are early adopter types who are ok with the extra pain. Won't take that long to cover more and more use cases as range increases and there are more and more chargers that can work faster and faster. Electric grid needs an upgrade first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.03” L.E. The moisture looks like it’s moved south of the area now on radar, so this round of snow could be it for this system. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 31.5 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 9 hours ago, CoastalWx said: @jculligan How much OTG there? I feel like this is your pattern where you "clean up" from these rinky dink events. This morning’s 1” snowfall brought my depth up to 7-8” OTG. Not super impressive for the White Mountains in late December, but a heck of a lot better than last year at this time (bare ground). I’m definitely concerned about the upcoming weekend, so hoping for positive trends in the next few days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Definitely trying to keep last winter in perspective. It was not until the mid-January storm that things really got going here. Hoping the New Years cutter doesn't wipe out the fragile pack we all have built.Another crap winter begins Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Another crap winter begins Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Keeping my bar set at a fun period like mid-Jan to mid-Feb was last winter. 3 feet of depth, temps cold enough, and two events of 15"+ plus a bunch of smaller events. Hopefully we at least get this. The nickel and dime stuff interspersed with warmth does start to wear thin after a while. It seems pretty hard for NNE to get widespread 12" events the last two winters. Still plenty of time this winter. Areas that don't get upslope have had a real rough go of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 39 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Really only one good warning event away from normal snowpack at the summits too. I absolutely agree based on my snowshoe tour up at Bolton yesterday – a solid warning event (~1” of L.E.) wouldn’t really get the steep natural snow terrain going, but a lot of low and moderate angle stuff would be in play. And based on your previous post showing an average depth at the stake of 31”, that’s just about what you’d expect. It’s really that ~40” mark at the stake that gets the steeper stuff going safely (unless we’ve had a ton of dense snow), and that’s not achieved on average until a couple of weeks from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 31 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Keeping my bar set at a fun period like mid-Jan to mid-Feb was last winter. 3 feet of depth, temps cold enough, and two events of 15"+ plus a bunch of smaller events. Hopefully we at least get this. The nickel and dime stuff interspersed with warmth does start to wear thin after a while. It seems pretty hard for NNE to get widespread 12" events the last two winters. Still plenty of time this winter. Areas that don't get upslope have had a real rough go of it. They’ve had the better side of the last two weeks though. The CAD crew seems more wintry in terms of frozen or freezing QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: They’ve had the better side of the last two weeks though. The CAD crew seems more wintry in terms of frozen or freezing QPF. Yeah, things have worked out decently here so far given I can straddle the line between the CAD retention setups and the upslope setups. I am definitely craving a big impact coastal right now or a week long upslope bonanza, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Yeah, things have worked out decently here so far given I can straddle the line between the CAD retention setups and the upslope setups. I am definitely craving a big impact coastal right now or a week long upslope bonanza, though. What's the depth at your place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 23 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Keeping my bar set at a fun period like mid-Jan to mid-Feb was last winter. 3 feet of depth, temps cold enough, and two events of 15"+ plus a bunch of smaller events. Hopefully we at least get this. The nickel and dime stuff interspersed with warmth does start to wear thin after a while. It seems pretty hard for NNE to get widespread 12" events the last two winters. Still plenty of time this winter. Areas that don't get upslope have had a real rough go of it. I saw this and checked my data, and your perception is pretty much right about larger storms being a bit on the lean side last season. It’s probably a bit early to say much about this season yet (the average date of our first 12”+ storm here is Jan 20th), but last season was definitely on the lower side. We typically average about three storms a season at 12”+, and last season we saw only one. We typically average about four storms a season at 10”+, and last season we had two. We also average about two storms a season at 15”+, one storm a season at 18”+, and one storm a season at 20”+, and we had none of those last season. Below the 10” storm threshold we were at or above average for numbers last season (makes sense, with overall snowfall coming in about average), but we were certainly on the low side for larger storms. We’re obviously famous for the persistency/frequency of our snowfalls up here in the mountains of NNE, but of course we get the larger storms like everyone else. From a skiing perspective, the continuous stream of small to moderate events is safer because you’re not dealing with huge storms that might put you in the associated warm sector if they pass to the west, and more frequent events keep the surfaces fresher. Setups that lead to larger events are sort of a double-edged sword, because they can bring surface-deteriorating warmth and also screw up the flow of systems in the northern stream, so unless the storm track for those is perfect, it makes you wonder if we really want the pattern to go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: What's the depth at your place? 9" but that is in a weenie spot where I have my stake. It's really more like 6" around the property if I take an average. There is always a big swing between the south and north aspects here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 14 hours ago, PhineasC said: Definitely trying to keep last winter in perspective. It was not until the mid-January storm that things really got going here. Hoping the New Years cutter doesn't wipe out the fragile pack we all have built. I’ll just have piles after the rain down here in the valley. It’s been a miserable year so far, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 I don’t remember last year being this bad, we had a huge snow storm in mid December. Grinch was bad but I still take that over this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Couple more runs like the 12z GFS and the cutter may end up mostly frozen here. It doesn’t seem to be a huge system in terms of potential L.E., but a colder profile would be much more positive in terms of adding to the base or even enhancing conditions on the slopes. That most recent GFS run already seems to suggest a majority of frozen precipitation for NW VT. Somehow I don’t get the impression that the main thread is going to do their typical microdissection on every five mile shift in surface low track for this system like they sometimes do; but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, J.Spin said: It doesn’t seem to be a huge system in terms of potential L.E., but a colder profile would be much more positive in terms of adding to the base or even enhancing conditions on the slopes. That most recent GFS run already seems to suggest a majority of frozen precipitation for NW VT. Somehow I don’t get the impression that the main thread is going to do their typical microdissection on every five mile shift in surface low track for this system like they sometimes do; but you never know. LOL yeah I doubt it. It seems to be getting colder, or at least dampening out to not have much precip. 32-34 with light drizzle/freezing drizzle is no big deal. Hopefully the models start picking up on some upslope after the low passes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 51 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I don’t remember last year being this bad, we had a huge snow storm in mid December. Grinch was bad but I still take that over this year For areas that were in that localized mid-December banding event last year I guess this season could seem different, but for many areas around here in NNE it probably seems fairly similar. The data here for our site say the two Decembers have been very similar in terms of snowfall and storms. December snowfall and storm data to this point of the month: December 2020: 22.7” from 10 storms December 2021: 20.2” from 13 storms So this December has seen a couple more storms, while last December saw a couple more inches of snow, but they have a very similar tenor. Depending on how snowpack factors in for people, this December takes that hands down, with twice the level of SDD to this point of the month: December 2020: 51.5 SDD December 2021: 100.0 SDD Both in terms of snowfall and snowpack, all those numbers are well below average (although the storm numbers are actually about average), so these can’t be considered amazing Decembers in that regard, but around here they are feeling quite similar, with this one getting the obvious nod in terms of snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 hours ago, qg_omega said: I don’t remember last year being this bad, we had a huge snow storm in mid December. Grinch was bad but I still take that over this year This December and last will finish close to each other for snowfall, but there's 8" at my stake today and last year it was brown ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: This December and last will finish close to each other for snowfall, but there's 8" at my stake today and last year it was brown ground. That was the grinch, parts of upstate NY had 40 inches in one storm last December. This one we had one storm for 6 to 8 inches two weeks ago and a few more of inch or so. No real cold but a few radiational cooling nights and lots of clouds grey skies, inversions and temps in the 30s during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Both the GFS and euro trended in the right direction for this weekend at 12z. GFS solution then sends the follow up wave into the GOM thanks to a strengthening blocking high and gives coastal and downeast Maine a snowstorm on Monday. That might be one to watch for Maine folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 It looks ugly, We need that cold press from canada to continue on the next few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Maybe things set going around the 12th, we've had some good winters that didn't start until the 12th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Wintry mix, With some Ice on the 18z GFS for the 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 Couple more runs and this will be a snowstorm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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