NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[dryslot]

[Lava Rock]

So is the 4-8" for sat night legit or what?

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

So is the 4-8" for sat night legit or what?

So far it is, We will see what 12z does today.

[tamarack]

7 hours ago, dryslot said:

5.4" below the average for the date here.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

5.4" below the average for the date here.

16-17"? Seems low.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

16-17"? Seems low.

Should've written 6.1" BN as nothing was coming today.  (Or 6.8" because tomorrow will be the same.)  By the end of the month our average is 24.0"

[dryslot]

24 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Should've written 6.1" BN as nothing was coming today.  (Or 6.8" because tomorrow will be the same.)  By the end of the month our average is 24.0"

Yeah i was going to say, Mines 22" by months end.

[timp]

Pretty chilly out there. Closest PWS is 1°F and there’s 4” on the ground. Has a deep winter feel just need a bigger pack. Rooting for the GFS this weekend lol. 

[powderfreak]

Mansfield Stake today... not ideal.  It's been a rough start to the season for natural snow but I think it's mostly the rain events/thaws we've had so far.  That one warm week really did a number on it though as some good momentum was building a couple weeks ago.

[Patriot21]

-2 at 10pm out at the wood pile

[mreaves]

19 minutes ago, Patriot21 said:

-2 at 10pm out at the wood pile

3° here. 

[J.Spin]

I got an alert this morning that we’ve been put under a Winter Weather Advisory for the upcoming storm.  The current forecast in this area suggests the system starts as snow, then incorporates some mixed precipitation the farther west you are, and then transitions back to snow.  Forecasts for accumulations in the local elevations are generally in the 3-6”, with the larger portion of that on the back side vs. the front side.  It should be a nice refresher with a modest addition of liquid equivalent for the local slopes either way, but we’ll have to see how much any mixed precipitation affects the quality of the conditions.  We’ll see what adjustments are done at the afternoon update, but the current BTV NWS maps for this storm are below:

[qg_omega]

Freezing rain to rain tomorrow will be brutal, strongest storm in a week and it’s liquid

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, Patriot21 said:

-2 at 10pm out at the wood pile

Right at zero here.  Temp was <5° at 11 last evening then thanks to clouds it rose to about 9 by 4:30 AM.  The clouds left and the temp plunged.

[qg_omega]

More rain on Wednesday, Xmas week falling apart for the mountains

[bch2014]

26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

More rain on Wednesday, Xmas week falling apart for the mountains

Not sure I’d say that-Tomorrow should be a net gain for the Whites and Maine, and that storm mid-late next week looks like a mixed bag at worst right now. 
 

Looks tough for southern VT, I’ll grant you that. 

[PhineasC]

People should not quote the out of region trolls.

[alex]

It’s a whole lot better than last year I’ll tell you that!

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, alex said:

It’s a whole lot better than last year I’ll tell you that!

Yeah, was just "reminiscing" about how last winter this time we were staring down the barrel of the grinch storm and the models had another huge cutter lined up for New Year's Eve.

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, was just "reminiscing" about how last winter this time we were staring down the barrel of the grinch storm and the models had another huge cutter lined up for New Year's Eve.

That was a total wipe out last year, That one i will never forget, Worst grinch ever.

[dryslot]

On a brighter note, Looks like a 2-4", 3-5" deal here tomorrow.

[tamarack]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That was a total wipe out last year, That one i will never forget, Worst grinch ever.

My greatest December precip, mildest mean temp and for any day of the year AN departure, 1° more than 3/22/2012.  Hard to imagine any worse wx for 12/25.

[NW_of_GYX]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

On a brighter note, Looks like a 2-4", 3-5" deal here tomorrow.

GYX still not buying it.  

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said:

GYX still not buying it.  

I haven't sold it to them yet, Maybe there thinking we will have sleet in there.

[NW_of_GYX]

Just now, dryslot said:

I haven't sold it to them yet.

well get to it then bub

[dryslot]

Just now, NW_of_GYX said:

well get to it then bub

Ha ha, There is still time, Probably the AFD later they will update.

[NW_of_GYX]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Ha ha, There is still time, Probably the AFD later they will update.

I suspect so, there's some model agreement. Even 2" will be a nice refresher. GFS and euro both hint at doing it again wed-thurs. 4-7 over the next week would be a great win in this pattern. 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I suspect so, there's some model agreement. Even 2" will be a nice refresher. GFS and euro both hint at doing it again wed-thurs. 4-7 over the next week would be a great win in this pattern. 

As bad as the pattern has been, It could've been worse, At least we have some snow pack, Last year, We got wiped out.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Ha ha, There is still time, Probably the AFD later they will update.

Hope so.  The only places with <1" for 'expected" are EEN, ASH and MBY (actually Farmington).  First 2 are likely P-type issues.  Not sure how BLM and North Conway show more than here.  However, those 16 CWA stations for GYX are all showing a minor event; I'd be slightly bummed if the respective forecast amounts were in single or double digits with the lowest for here.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Hope so.  The only places with <1" for 'expected" are EEN, ASH and MBY (actually Farmington).  First 2 are likely P-type issues.  Not sure how BLM and North Conway show more than here.  However, those 16 CWA stations for GYX are all showing a minor event; I'd be slightly bummed if the respective forecast amounts were in single or double digits with the lowest for here.

Nothing better then some snow on Christmas Day, Precip, Kind of dies off as it moves east on the models as low pressure slips off the coast to the SE.