NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Temps were weird during the past 12 hours.  After a high of 42 yesterday it was down to 30 at 11 PM under clear skies.  At 4:15 this morning it was upper 30s and breezy, and now it's mid 30s and holding with some gusts near 30 mph.  Pre-CF shenanigans.

Can you post the link for Maine?  I tried changing "Vermont" to "Maine" on the earlier link and ended up in a maze of required actions/frustrations.

https://en-us.topographic-map.com/maps/jleo/Maine/

[tamarack]

7 minutes ago, mreaves said:

https://en-us.topographic-map.com/maps/jleo/Maine/

Bookmarked.  Thanks to both you and Jeff.

[dryslot]

MOS product looking healthy for Sunday here with the SWFE fwiw.

 KLEW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/14/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21|WED CLIMO
 N/X  12  34| 29  50| 35  49| 20  30| 20  27| 11  27| 13  39| 17 17 33
 TMP  14  31| 34  44| 39  37| 21  26| 22  22| 14  20| 18  30| 21      
 DPT   6  21| 32  37| 31  24| 15  20| 16  10|  6   8| 12  19| 14      
 CLD  CL  OV| OV  OV| PC  CL| PC  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC      
 WND   5   4|  7   3|  6  11|  4   8|  9  13| 11   9|  4   8|  5      
 P12   1   5| 92  50|  7   7|  5  71| 70  30|  9   8| 12  18| 15999999
 P24       5|     94|      9|     73|     71|     16|     27|      999
 Q12   0   0|  3   1|  0   0|  0   2|  4   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      3|      0|      2|      3|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   0|  2   1|  1   0|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0      
 T24        |  1    |  2    |  2    |  1    |  1    |  0    |  0      
 PZP   0   0| 11   1|  0   0|  4   6| 11   6|  8   8| 12   8| 10      
 PSN  90  79| 20   0|  0   9| 38  74| 78  83| 85  82| 80  55| 66      
 PRS   5   1|  2   1|  1  10| 24  12|  7   6|  4   4|  4  15|  7      
 TYP   S   S|  R   R|  R   R| RS   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S      
 SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      8|      0|       |         

 

[jculligan]

6"+ snowfall probabilities on the Euro ensembles in the 24-hour period from 18z Saturday to 18z Sunday:

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, jculligan said:

6"+ snowfall probabilities on the Euro ensembles in the 24-hour period from 18z Saturday to 18z Sunday:

This type of SWFE is right in your wheelhouse there climo-wise.  SE low level flow under SW flow aloft.

[jculligan]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

This type of SWFE is right in your wheelhouse there climo-wise.  SE low level flow under SW flow aloft.

Yes, I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about finally scoring my first 6"+ event of the season with this one. Two weeks later than last year, but unlike last year...it looks fairly likely we'll keep whatever we get through Christmas.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, jculligan said:

Yes, I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about finally scoring my first 6"+ event of the season with this one. Two weeks later than last year, but unlike last year...it looks fairly likely we'll keep whatever we get through Christmas.

Yeah I’m just looking for 3”+ as usual, ha.  Cover the grass, plowable… 3” is usually my number to hit to be considered “an event.”  I do think 3-6” seems like a starting range here, in line with ensemble means.

[alex]

Snow and sleet mix 

[Patriot21]

Burst of snow and wind last night put a quick layer down, don't know when turned to rain but the road is a sheet of ice. 

[jculligan]

I've been down visiting the girlfriend in Malden MA these last couple of days, and about to make the trek back north to Jackson. Balmy 55-degree morning here in eastern Mass. Seeing a lot of 32F readings from Ossipee north. Hoping temps can creep up a degree or two before I get up there, but it looks like another classic CAD day in the MWN Valley.

[tamarack]

Had 1.6" of dense white stuff, probably some graupel mixed in, with a trace of ZR for the cap.  LE of 0.38" means a 4.3-to-1 ratio.  Starting this snow season where the last one finished.   20-21 had by far the lowest average ratio of 23 winters here with 6.5-to-1 for events >1".  2nd lowest is 8.2-to-1 in 19-20 and the 23-year average is 10.1.  Looks nice, however, even though the trees will probably empty this afternoon/tomorrow.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.50” L.E.

 

We picked up a couple tenths of snow yesterday evening on the front end of this system – there were some small flakes as the system started up, then much larger flakes at times, and eventually more granular/sleety material mixed in.  From what I can tell, this is actually part of Winter Storm Bankston that brought some big snows to the Sierra and strong winds to the Midwest.  The reach of the storm is huge – if you look at the current surface map you can see that the low pressure is up above Lake Superior, with a warm front stretching off the east coast and a cold front all the way back to Arizona.  It’s the warm front that brought us this first bout of precipitation from the system.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 42.3 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: Trace

[jculligan]

Looks like we got about a half inch of slop here in Jackson. Currently 36F and OVC. Ready to move on to Saturday...

[jculligan]

Warm air struggling to reach this location today. Sometimes my elevation helps, but after briefly rising to 43F early this afternoon we have since settled back to 36F. We've been in and out of the fog for most of the day with an occasional undercast visible to the west. Temperatures could be interesting tonight, especially near/just after FROPA. Wind advisory hoisted for gusts to 50 after 3am.

[Patriot21]

The warmest I saw here was 44 at 3 o'clock, not sure if it's gone up since then or not.  Cloudy and foggy almost the whole day.

[backedgeapproaching]

60.7F here today...honestly it felt great.

[Patriot21]

33 at 7pm

[powderfreak]

I saw something flying in the flood light off my porch this evening... moth?  Rare to see any insect flying around in mid-December here.

Today was like April climo.  We started cooling off a little but then mixed out again and spiked into the upper 50s this evening.  Pretty damn crazy.  Shades of Dec 2015.

CLR skis all afternoon with mild temperatures, it was unbelievable.  Such a nice day skiing.  Soft snow, mild temperatures, everyone having a great time.  Folks really do love sunny mild weather for skiing.  Check out the MVL obs... mild, then cooling off, then spiking high as it mixes again with a 14F increase from 4-6pm.

Glorious hero turns in the soft snow though.  Like I said, felt like April but with much less snowpack.  We do enjoy these days though if Mother Nature is going to torch.  

[powderfreak]

Mansfield summit sitting 47F currently.  Stake depth didn't take too much of a hit today though.  Sitting at 16" depth.

The only thing missing from an April vibe is the lack of daylight.  

[jculligan]

Incredible temperature ranges over very short distances this evening. This is the most extreme example I can find in New Hampshire:

At my location, we had slipped back to 36F but have since spiked back to 44F which is now the high for the day.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, jculligan said:

Incredible temperature ranges over very short distances this evening. This is the most extreme example I can find in New Hampshire:

At my location, we had slipped back to 36F but have since spiked back to 44F which is now the high for the day.

30s to 60s in such a short distance is incredible.  What a map there.  That's a saver.

[alex]

Amazing weather

 I have a very dumb question. I was playing with the maps in those links and looked at my location. I always assumed that upslope is generated from mountains to my northwest and looking at this map… there’s really nothing to my northwest. Are those little things capable of giving enough lift, or is the lift coming from the wind hitting the mountains just to my south/southeast? 

[backedgeapproaching]

Looking back at some pics from last Dec 16-17 storm, and was looking at time stamps from some pics I took.

So this one is about 5am..can see my car clearly and maybe 4-6" OTG?

This is 1137AM...car pretty much buried, prob 24-28" additional in 6 hours or so..lol.  

 

[backedgeapproaching]

And then you have Dec 16 2021....

 

[jculligan]

10 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Looking back at some pics from last Dec 16-17 storm, and was looking at time stamps from some pics I took.

So this one is about 5am..can see my car clearly and maybe 4-6" OTG?

This is 1137AM...car pretty much buried, prob 24-28" additional in 6 hours or so..lol.  

 

Last winter was such a dud I often forget about this one. We only got 6" on the northern fringe of the storm here, but what a whopper from southern VT up into the Lakes region! That stationary death band was one of the more extreme cases of mesoscale banding I've ever seen - it was almost like watching a lake effect band in my old stomping grounds of western New York. Danbury NH picked up 48" of snow, and then a week later it was completely gone...

[backedgeapproaching]

52 minutes ago, jculligan said:

Last winter was such a dud I often forget about this one. We only got 6" on the northern fringe of the storm here, but what a whopper from southern VT up into the Lakes region! That stationary death band was one of the more extreme cases of mesoscale banding I've ever seen - it was almost like watching a lake effect band in my old stomping grounds of western New York. Danbury NH picked up 48" of snow, and then a week later it was completely gone...

Yea, be hard find a more intense band in a NE synoptic setup. Went from BGM up through NH. Like you mentioned it dropped 3-4 ft in pretty short  period of time.

And yes, that was a heck of grinch melt in rapid fashion..

 

 

[jculligan]

Warm air managed to work its way in. We're up from 36F at sunset to 51F now. Incredibly balmy night out there.

[#NoPoles]

Winter Storm Watch

[J.Spin]

I had my phone with me last night because we’d lost power with the winds, and early this morning I got a text that we had a Winter Storm Watch in place.  Checking the BTV NWS point forecast for our site, it calls for something in the 4-8” range with this next system.  If this is a SWFE type system, I usually find that the lower end of that might be more in the range of the accumulations we actually see, since the forecast L.E. may be a good estimate, but flake size tends toward the smaller end.  This makes for denser accumulations, which can be great for the base.

I’ve added the latest BTV NWS maps below.

[tamarack]

Only reached 34 yesterday and was 30-31 at 5 this morning as the wind was just beginning to increase.  By 7 it was howling, lights were blinking, and the temp had risen 9°.  For the period 1-7 AM, IZG went from 37 to 55 and then back to 50, with TD 18 while points east still had dews in the 40s.
Three similar events at 5-day intervals, each with frozen start, cold rain at the end, and a quick up/down temp as the CF and its winds came thru.