J.Spin Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Ended up with just 0.08” from this thing so far. We picked up 0.06” from the initial frontal passage, and then another 0.12” from the secondary cold frontal passage. We didn’t get any frozen with that second push, but the precipitation just changed over to snow and we’re getting accumulation, so snow levels have now dropped to the valley floors in this area now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 18 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I assume it's usually a good sign when the models are showing such a strong upslope signal this far out? 00z Euro and the ensembles looked really good for Friday into Monday. Yeah, Favored areas in NNE early season are looking primed for a weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I assume it's usually a good sign when the models are showing such a strong upslope signal this far out? 00z Euro and the ensembles looked really good for Friday into Monday. Typically, it’s a good sign when the signal is there run after run on multiple models. That’s not uncommon though, because as I mentioned earlier, you can often see a lot more run-to-run consistency in the models for certain setups when it comes to upslope precipitation. Unlike many types of storms, the low pressure doesn’t have to be in an absolutely perfect position to get decent results – there seems to be a lot more leeway in positioning. I think a big component of this flexibility is because, as PF says, “the mountains don’t move.” So if you’ve got the moisture and appropriate winds, the forcing is sort of there for you. I don’t typically use the ensembles to look for upslope potential because I’m not usually looking that far out for specific upslope events anyway, and the ensembles seem somewhat coarse for such a mesoscale phenomenon. I guess they do speak to a general look for upslope in the area. I’d say we’re getting into the window of medium range deterministic model use anyway for that potential event at the end of the week. Hopefully PF can weigh in with some of his thoughts on what he looks for when potential upslope events are on the horizon, but the BTV NWS is generally a good resource. They don’t specifically speak to your area, but I’m not sure how much the GYX NWS focuses on the details of upslope events, so they may be the more informative option when it comes to upslope details. The current BTV NWS discussion indicates that they are aware of the potential at the end of the week and watching the setup. They even mention that low pressure positioning that I talked about: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 936 AM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 428 AM EST Monday... There will be a change Thursday night through Saturday as an approaching upper trough Thursday night will close off over the region by Friday night and only reach the Maine New Brunswick area by Saturday. This scenario will bring rain and snow to the area later Thursday night into Friday with the mountains having the best chance for snow. Have raised precipitation chances into the likely category for most of the area during this time period. The upper low positioned over Maine and New Brunswick by Saturday is important for our weather as this would set up a favorable pattern for upslope precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 I do read the BTV discussions to get an idea on uplsope because it is mostly ignored by GYX. They will usually just make a one line reference to “snow showers in the mountains” and that’s it. They are busy with the major metro zones down south and that’s the focus. I thought it was interesting that even the ensembles had such a robust signal at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 0.35" of 33-37° RA from ~9:30 last evening thru 10 this AM. A bit surprised that there was no IP at the start as it was closer to 32 than 33 when I was out with the dog at 10 last night. Very November-y day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 20 minutes ago, J.Spin said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 936 AM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 428 AM EST Monday... There will be a change Thursday night through Saturday as an approaching upper trough Thursday night will close off over the region by Friday night and only reach the Maine New Brunswick area by Saturday. This scenario will bring rain and snow to the area later Thursday night into Friday with the mountains having the best chance for snow. Have raised precipitation chances into the likely category for most of the area during this time period. The upper low positioned over Maine and New Brunswick by Saturday is important for our weather as this would set up a favorable pattern for upslope precipitation. The bolded is all that matters at this point. ULL in the climo favored spot. That 12z GFS was fairly textbook. H85 temps cooling to around -12C too for high ratio fluff most likely. Long way to go but those upper level features are certainly noticeable. Like J.Spin mentioned I always say, the mountains don't move so the lift is where it always is. Just need some of the larger features to line up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Some frozen precip just started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 And over to all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 On and off snow showers. 32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Had some snow showers in town earlier when I was getting our boiler serviced. Looks like 1” fell at 3,000ft but I saw nothing more than a slight trace on mulch beds at 1500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patriot21 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Been barely flurrying here on and off since the quick rain earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 18z GFS looks good for NNE on 26-27th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z GFS looks good for NNE on 26-27th. Been locked in for a while on the models. Hope it holds. Doesn’t require exact low placement which is good. Nice to see the robust signal at range on the globals even before the mesos get a hold of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Been locked in for a while on the models. Hope it holds. Doesn’t require exact low placement which is good. Nice to see the robust signal at range on the globals even before the mesos get a hold of it. I think its legit, Were under 100 hrs now, Just a matter of where the SLP ends up tracking, A little further south and its possible to get snow even here, Not far off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Just get those lows up near FVE and spin moisture back this way, the mountains will do the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 I will be in Stowe this weekend and hoping for a great snowfall. Love the 12Z and 18Z GFS and Euro so fingers crossed we can get some snow and open up those slopes this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.19” L.E. The weather seemed to clear out by yesterday evening, so the totals above are what I recorded here for this most recent system. It definitely whitened up some of those lower slopes that had lost their cover over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 There was nothing falling at observations time this morning, but in the past 10 minutes or so, a fresh round of flakes has begun to fall. I hadn’t noticed until this morning that our high temperature isn’t even expected to get out of the 20s F today, so there’s been no issue with accumulation. Unfortunately with the way the forecast discussions are not up to date on the BTV NWS site, I can’t get their thoughts on the origin of this current precipitation, but it’s certainly visible moving in on the radar. There’s a bit more upstream in NNY as well. I’m just going to call it a minor disturbance coming in from the northwest for now until the forecast discussion issue is fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 a nice wintry appeal with few but sizeable flakes falling. A dusting overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 22 with some flurries. A light dusting in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 24° with flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 BW opening Friday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 I was able to get the latest BTV NWS AFD that discusses all the snow that’s around today. It appears that the snow is associated with an upper-level trough moving slowly across the area with weak forcing and low-level moisture. They could certainly update the discussion though, because the snowfall around here is more robust than that text would suggest. It was on and off snow showers earlier this morning with even some occasional breaks of blue sky, but now it’s wall-to-wall snow, with reduced visibility at times. I was just back in the center of town and it’s the same thing there. The precipitation is still light, fluffy snow, so I don’t expect they’ll have to worry about road conditions, but with the radar showing that there’s more moisture upstream, these conditions will probably continue for a bit. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 945 AM EST Tue Nov 23 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 944 AM EST Tuesday...With the cold air mass now in place, flurries are being squeezed out of a shallow cloud layer in portions of the Adirondack region and northern Vermont. With sub-freezing surface conditions, seeing some very light accumulation of snow, including on high elevation roads in Westfield, Canaan, and Buels Gore this morning. Previous Discussion... Upper level trough will be slow to move across the area today and is not expected to exit the region until tonight. Weak forcing and some low level moisture is helping to enhance some cloud development over the area and there is also quite a bit of cloud cover upstream. As a result have added a bit more cloud cover to the forecast and even threw in a few flurries over the higher terrain in northern Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 3 hours ago, PhineasC said: BW opening Friday! Same here! Ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Good snow shower activity going on. 1” on the hill so far, nice little pulse up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Good snow shower activity going on. 1” on the hill so far, nice little pulse up. I just mentioned the Winooski Valley streamer in the main November discussion thread. Just a few flakes at my house but could see the hills by 89 shrouded in snow. Sure enough, it was snowing decently as I got to exit 6 and was like that all the way to Montpelier. The image above illustrates that perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Streamers FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.01” L.E. This event wasn’t really in the forecast, but it’s definitely putting down a fresh layer of white and making the most of the available moisture thus far. We had a half inch down at noontime, but there’s been almost another half inch since then. The sub-freezing temperatures even down into the lower valleys at midday is clearly helping with the efficiency of accumulation. Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 27.9 F Sky: Light Snow (2-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Bretton Woods listened to PF and opens Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, alex said: Bretton Woods listened to PF and opens Friday Ha I mean it makes the most sense. Maximize the cold shot, make all the snow you can before the mild day on Thursday. Push it all out on Thur/Thur night and open Friday. Also bonus of employees get Thanksgiving with family for the most part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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