Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022


PhineasC
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Ended up with just 0.08” from this thing so far. 

We picked up 0.06” from the initial frontal passage, and then another 0.12” from the secondary cold frontal passage.  We didn’t get any frozen with that second push, but the precipitation just changed over to snow and we’re getting accumulation, so snow levels have now dropped to the valley floors in this area now.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I assume it's usually a good sign when the models are showing such a strong upslope signal this far out? 00z Euro and the ensembles looked really good for Friday into Monday.

Yeah, Favored areas in NNE early season are looking primed for a weekend event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I assume it's usually a good sign when the models are showing such a strong upslope signal this far out? 00z Euro and the ensembles looked really good for Friday into Monday.

Typically, it’s a good sign when the signal is there run after run on multiple models.  That’s not uncommon though, because as I mentioned earlier, you can often see a lot more run-to-run consistency in the models for certain setups when it comes to upslope precipitation.  Unlike many types of storms, the low pressure doesn’t have to be in an absolutely perfect position to get decent results – there seems to be a lot more leeway in positioning.  I think a big component of this flexibility is because, as PF says, “the mountains don’t move.”  So if you’ve got the moisture and appropriate winds, the forcing is sort of there for you.

I don’t typically use the ensembles to look for upslope potential because I’m not usually looking that far out for specific upslope events anyway, and the ensembles seem somewhat coarse for such a mesoscale phenomenon.  I guess they do speak to a general look for upslope in the area.  I’d say we’re getting into the window of medium range deterministic model use anyway for that potential event at the end of the week.

Hopefully PF can weigh in with some of his thoughts on what he looks for when potential upslope events are on the horizon, but the BTV NWS is generally a good resource.  They don’t specifically speak to your area, but I’m not sure how much the GYX NWS focuses on the details of upslope events, so they may be the more informative option when it comes to upslope details.

The current BTV NWS discussion indicates that they are aware of the potential at the end of the week and watching the setup.  They even mention that low pressure positioning that I talked about:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

936 AM EST Mon Nov 22 2021

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 428 AM EST Monday... There will be a change Thursday night through Saturday as an approaching upper trough Thursday night will close off over the region by Friday night and only reach the Maine New Brunswick area by Saturday. This scenario will bring rain and snow to the area later Thursday night into Friday with the mountains having the best chance for snow. Have raised precipitation chances into the likely category for most of the area during this time period. The upper low positioned over Maine and New Brunswick by Saturday is important for our weather as this would set up a favorable pattern for upslope precipitation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I do read the BTV discussions to get an idea on uplsope because it is mostly ignored by GYX. They will usually just make a one line reference to “snow showers in the mountains” and that’s it. They are busy with the major metro zones down south and that’s the focus.

I thought it was interesting that even the ensembles had such a robust signal at this range. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

936 AM EST Mon Nov 22 2021

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 428 AM EST Monday... There will be a change Thursday night through Saturday as an approaching upper trough Thursday night will close off over the region by Friday night and only reach the Maine New Brunswick area by Saturday. This scenario will bring rain and snow to the area later Thursday night into Friday with the mountains having the best chance for snow. Have raised precipitation chances into the likely category for most of the area during this time period. The upper low positioned over Maine and New Brunswick by Saturday is important for our weather as this would set up a favorable pattern for upslope precipitation.

The bolded is all that matters at this point.  ULL in the climo favored spot.

That 12z GFS was fairly textbook.  H85 temps cooling to around -12C too for high ratio fluff most likely.

Long way to go but those upper level features are certainly noticeable.  Like J.Spin mentioned I always say, the mountains don't move so the lift is where it always is.  Just need some of the larger features to line up.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-8187200.thumb.png.297920a4d0250cf7affa3a764cd09043.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Been locked in for a while on the models. Hope it holds. Doesn’t require exact low placement which is good. Nice to see the robust signal at range on the globals even before the mesos get a hold of it. 

I think its legit, Were under 100 hrs now, Just a matter of where the SLP ends up tracking, A little further south and its possible to get snow even here, Not far off.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.19” L.E.

The weather seemed to clear out by yesterday evening, so the totals above are what I recorded here for this most recent system.  It definitely whitened up some of those lower slopes that had lost their cover over the past few days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was nothing falling at observations time this morning, but in the past 10 minutes or so, a fresh round of flakes has begun to fall.  I hadn’t noticed until this morning that our high temperature isn’t even expected to get out of the 20s F today, so there’s been no issue with accumulation.

Unfortunately with the way the forecast discussions are not up to date on the BTV NWS site, I can’t get their thoughts on the origin of this current precipitation, but it’s certainly visible moving in on the radar.  There’s a bit more upstream in NNY as well.  I’m just going to call it a minor disturbance coming in from the northwest for now until the forecast discussion issue is fixed.

23NOV21A.gif.5e0fdf40610b6f638b2d225e851dfe99.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was able to get the latest BTV NWS AFD that discusses all the snow that’s around today.  It appears that the snow is associated with an upper-level trough moving slowly across the area with weak forcing and low-level moisture.  They could certainly update the discussion though, because the snowfall around here is more robust than that text would suggest.  It was on and off snow showers earlier this morning with even some occasional breaks of blue sky, but now it’s wall-to-wall snow, with reduced visibility at times.  I was just back in the center of town and it’s the same thing there.  The precipitation is still light, fluffy snow, so I don’t expect they’ll have to worry about road conditions, but with the radar showing that there’s more moisture upstream, these conditions will probably continue for a bit.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

945 AM EST Tue Nov 23 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 944 AM EST Tuesday...With the cold air mass now in place, flurries are being squeezed out of a shallow cloud layer in portions of the Adirondack region and northern Vermont. With sub-freezing surface conditions, seeing some very light accumulation of snow, including on high elevation roads in Westfield, Canaan, and Buels Gore this morning.

Previous Discussion...

Upper level trough will be slow to move across the area today and is not expected to exit the region until tonight. Weak forcing and some low level moisture is helping to enhance some cloud development over the area and there is also quite a bit of cloud cover upstream. As a result have added a bit more cloud cover to the forecast and even threw in a few flurries over the higher terrain in northern Vermont.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Good snow shower activity going on.  1” on the hill so far, nice little pulse up.

E82C0E82-38B4-463F-82A5-7E3E83913035.gif.1d30bd7e637725691357121332a9a3bc.gif

I just mentioned the Winooski Valley streamer in the main November discussion thread.  Just a few flakes at my house but could see the hills by 89 shrouded in snow.  Sure enough, it was snowing decently as I got to exit 6 and was like that all the way to Montpelier.  The image above illustrates that perfectly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

This event wasn’t really in the forecast, but it’s definitely putting down a fresh layer of white and making the most of the available moisture thus far.  We had a half inch down at noontime, but there’s been almost another half inch since then.  The sub-freezing temperatures even down into the lower valleys at midday is clearly helping with the efficiency of accumulation.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0

Snow Density: 2.0% H2O

Temperature: 27.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, alex said:

Bretton Woods listened to PF and opens Friday 

Ha I mean it makes the most sense.  Maximize the cold shot, make all the snow you can before the mild day on Thursday.  Push it all out on Thur/Thur night and open Friday.

Also bonus of employees get Thanksgiving with family for the most part.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...