NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[PhineasC]

34 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol, The 12z GFS.

Me to you special. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Me to you special. 

90% of my seasonal total from last year........lol

[MJO812]

Fantasy weenie coastal snowstorm on gfs

[alex]

19 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I've heard whisperings in the industry that they are trying for a Wednesday opening.  People on social seem to be wondering the same thing as they are at Stowe, ha.  Snowmaking today was on the upper mountain at BW and I saw some FB comments wondering why they weren't able to make snow top-to-bottom because it was cold enough for natural snow to be on the ground.

The base area elevations have been tricky!

When I was up surveying the snow coverage at Stowe late today I caught the alpenglow on Mount Washington as the western slopes turned orange and pink.

 

Based on the forecast, Wednesday seems reasonable. Ski team starts Saturday, and they always try to open before Thanksgiving, and Tuesday should be good for snowmaking. But what do I know?

[#NoPoles]

If I go home for Thanksgiving, keep on alert for surprise snow up here since I'll by in Plymouth on the Ocean, where it most certainly won't snow

[powderfreak]

37 minutes ago, alex said:

Based on the forecast, Wednesday seems reasonable. Ski team starts Saturday, and they always try to open before Thanksgiving, and Tuesday should be good for snowmaking. But what do I know?

The one thing ski areas will be considering (as I know we are) is that the prime snowmaking window is Monday afternoon through late morning Wednesday.  In order to groom and open Wednesday, snowmaking on that terrain probably needs to be off at noon Tuesday to dry out a bit before getting pushed out Tue night.

Personally my Mtn Ops hat says don’t waste the coldest night of the year (Tuesday night) so far on a route that’s likely thin to begin with and blow snow straight through until noon Wednesday and then it warms up for Thursday… blow snow through the whole cold shot and then open Thur/Fri with more robust snow depth on the main route.

The benefit of waiting 24 hours to get yield out of the whole cold shot outweighs a Wednesday opening to me.  Of course you’d just be making snow on different terrain Tuesday night but the goal is to shore up the opening route enough that you don’t need to go back to it with snowmaking just to stay open if we get a cutter.  One strong coverage route is better than two weaker routes in terms of business continuity.

[alex]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The one thing ski areas will be considering (as I know we are) is that the prime snowmaking window is Monday afternoon through late morning Wednesday.  In order to groom and open Wednesday, snowmaking on that terrain probably needs to be off at noon Tuesday to dry out a bit before getting pushed out Tue night.

Personally my Mtn Ops hat says don’t waste the coldest night of the year (Tuesday night) so far and blow snow straight through until noon Wednesday and then it warms up for Thursday… blow snow through the whole cold shot and then open Thur/Fri with more robust snow depth on the main route.  

I can envision a fun meeting between Mt Ops and Marketing screaming at each other - open the f-ing thing - no we open Friday - no you get the thing open on Wednesday - and so on 

[PhineasC]

Friday and the weekend are looking interesting for an NNE uplsope event. Models are bouncing around on having a defined low near us, but they consistently show a solid uplsope signal after whatever it is winds up to our NE. Something to watch. Also, the rain really fizzled for tomorrow. Should help the ski places. 

[J.Spin]

6 hours ago, PhineasC said:

It'll be interesting to see where the snow line sets up as it progresses. Hopefully it gets down to 2000'-2500' or so which would really help the ski places fill out the middle of the mountains. Doesn't help them much if it's only snowing at the summit of Mt. Washington.

I’m thinking the snow line starts out in the 3,500’ – 4,000’ range?  PF may have looked at the details and have more accurate thoughts.  The BTV NWS doesn’t always say too much when the snow levels are high, since travel impacts are low to nonexistent.  I’m seeing 3-6” as a point forecast in the Presidentials at ~5,500’, so certainly some help in loading the ravines to bolster the snowpack there.

Indeed that snow line is really up there near the resort summits, so not helping out too much there as you said, and I totally agree, let’s hope it gets down into at least the mid elevations of the resorts.  As is typically the case, the lower that snow line goes, the better.

The BTV NWS has generally light amounts overall, although they do have the snow levels getting down as low as 1,500’ over here, so that’s dropping all the way to the base elevations.

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

255 PM EST Sun Nov 21 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

As of 139 PM EST Sunday...Total snowfall expected 1-2" across the Green Mtn summits tonight and Monday, and locally 2-3" at summit level in the Adirondacks. At more modest elevations of 1500-2500`, have indicated just a coating to 0.5" snowfall across nrn NY and far nern VT.

[J.Spin]

21 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Friday and the weekend are looking interesting for an NNE uplsope event. Models are bouncing around on having a defined low near us, but they consistently show a solid uplsope signal after whatever it is winds up to our NE. Something to watch. 

Yeah, that system is looking colder than this one, and has more upslope potential as well, at least as it’s currently depicted in the models.  I don’t know about a strongly defined low that’s right near us, but it looks like the potential money maker could be low pressure assuming a position somewhere from Northern Maine on up into the Maritimes.  Variations of that are shown on multiple models, and that’s what would bring that more potent period of upslope snow.  That timeframe is only 4 to 5 days out, so definitely something to watch at this point.

And watching at this range is even more appropriate than it is in many other storm setups, because a low doesn’t even need to be placed perfectly up there.  Sure, some low positions are going to produce better upslope than others, but you get into that general cyclonic flow with some moisture, and the mountains can do their thing.  I’ve found that’s certainly one of the big differences in the snow climate up here vs. places like SNE.  Getting defined surface lows placed perfectly/appropriately/nearby is great, but it’s a huge crap shoot, and sometimes it seems like areas to the south can spend half the winter waiting for a pattern to set up that will place lows exactly where they need to be to produce decent snow.  That’s unnecessarily burning part of the season that could be producing snow (at least in terms of average temperatures), which is probably one of the factors that produces the lower snowfall averages and higher variance in areas to the south.

[bwt3650]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The one thing ski areas will be considering (as I know we are) is that the prime snowmaking window is Monday afternoon through late morning Wednesday.  In order to groom and open Wednesday, snowmaking on that terrain probably needs to be off at noon Tuesday to dry out a bit before getting pushed out Tue night.

Personally my Mtn Ops hat says don’t waste the coldest night of the year (Tuesday night) so far on a route that’s likely thin to begin with and blow snow straight through until noon Wednesday and then it warms up for Thursday… blow snow through the whole cold shot and then open Thur/Fri with more robust snow depth on the main route.

The benefit of waiting 24 hours to get yield out of the whole cold shot outweighs a Wednesday opening to me.  Of course you’d just be making snow on different terrain Tuesday night but the goal is to shore up the opening route enough that you don’t need to go back to it with snowmaking just to stay open if we get a cutter.  One strong coverage route is better than two weaker routes in terms of business continuity.

Have to blow the snow..not even a question.  And the only one who doesn’t get it and is pissed is “vail sucks guy”…,and he’s already emailed corporate and posted on social media.

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Have to blow the snow..not even a question.  And the only one who doesn’t get it and is pissed is “vail sucks guy”…,and he’s already emailed corporate and posted on social media.

Haha so true.  And glad you get it.  I’m going to have to explain that this week.  Like listen skiers/riders… the benefit of hammering snowmaking through the cold snap far outweighs an opening 24-48 hours earlier.  

Looks like the upper mountain started as snow this evening and avoided any rain.  29F up top and 39F down here in the village with cold rain.  I’d bet the snow level is near 2500 feet?

[bwt3650]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha so true.  And glad you get it.  I’m going to have to explain that this week.  Like listen skiers/riders… the benefit of hammering snowmaking through the cold snap far outweighs an opening 24-48 hours earlier.  

Looks like the upper mountain started as snow this evening and avoided any rain.  29F up top and 39F down here in the village with cold rain.  I’d bet the snow level is near 2500 feet?

I’m back in jersey but I can see on my cam that it’s snow at my place at 1850’..looks like a half inch or so.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

I’m back in jersey but I can see on my cam that it’s snow at my place at 1850’..looks like a half inch or so.

Oh nice so it’s getting pretty low.  Good news.

[alex]

Just started snowing here at 1550 ft

[J.Spin]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha so true.  And glad you get it.  I’m going to have to explain that this week.  Like listen skiers/riders… the benefit of hammering snowmaking through the cold snap far outweighs an opening 24-48 hours earlier.  

Looks like the upper mountain started as snow this evening and avoided any rain.  29F up top and 39F down here in the village with cold rain.  I’d bet the snow level is near 2500 feet?

 

7 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

I’m back in jersey but I can see on my cam that it’s snow at my place at 1850’..looks like a half inch or so.

I just checked the Sugarbush snowboard webcams, and it’s snowing at their 3,900’ cam, as well as at their 3,125 cam, so the snow level is somewhere below that as you surmised.  I’m surprised that snow levels aren’t expected to rise in the near term with the southerly flow, but apparently not?  It looks like temperatures stay steady and then come down as the storm cycle continues.  I’m seeing L.E. in the 0.1” to 0.2” range mentioned for this storm, so nothing too prodigious, but a nice little addition for the upper mountain areas if the snow line only falls from here.

[alex]

1 minute ago, J.Spin said:

 

I just checked the Sugarbush snowboard webcams, and it’s snowing at their 3,900’ cam, as well as at their 3,125 cam, so the snow level is somewhere below that as you surmised.  I’m surprised that snow levels aren’t expected to rise in the near term with the southerly flow, but apparently not?  It looks like temperatures stay steady and then come down as the storm cycle continues.  I’m seeing L.E. in the 0.1” to 0.2” range mentioned for this storm, so nothing too prodigious, but a nice little addition for the upper mountain areas if the snow line only falls from here.

I've gotta imagine the temperature will rise here, otherwise this would end up as mostly snow which seems unlikely 

[PhineasC]

Flurries. 33. 

[alex]

Over to a mix of rain/snow

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

I just checked the Sugarbush snowboard webcams, and it’s snowing at their 3,900’ cam, as well as at their 3,125 cam, so the snow level is somewhere below that as you surmised.  I’m surprised that snow levels aren’t expected to rise in the near term with the southerly flow, but apparently not?  It looks like temperatures stay steady and then come down as the storm cycle continues.  I’m seeing L.E. in the 0.1” to 0.2” range mentioned for this storm, so nothing too prodigious, but a nice little addition for the upper mountain areas if the snow line only falls from here.

The frontal boundary system was pretty weak and I don't think we got much southerly flow ahead of it.  Models had 850mb staying below 0C from the beginning of the precip so it should just get colder.  Only a coating to an inch possible IMO.

Stowe's snow cam showing snow since the beginning but no real accumulation more than a half inch maybe (there's 2" on the board but it was wet sticky snow that was stuck to the board when it flipped back up this morning).

[J.Spin]

14 minutes ago, alex said:

I've gotta imagine the temperature will rise here, otherwise this would end up as mostly snow which seems unlikely 

I think farther to the east, the temperatures must be going up before they come back down later in the storm cycle.  If you look at the point forecasts in your area, it shows temperatures rising tonight through tomorrow morning into the upper 30s F before they start to come back down around noontime tomorrow.

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I think farther to the east, the temperatures must be going up before they come back down later in the storm cycle.  If you look at the point forecasts in your area, it shows temperatures rising tonight through tomorrow morning into the upper 30s F before they start to come back down around noontime tomorrow.

Yeah you’re right.  I thought they might be able to stay snow once they see flakes but the models still have the 850mb freezing line lifting just north of there tonight (4am snapshot on the Euro).  Very light precip amounts though.  I think the northern Greens at stay snow now above 1500-2000ft but no real precip either.

[PhineasC]

Sloppy mix here but based on radar it’s already almost over? LOL

[powderfreak]

The bottom line is this is a lot better than the mild heavy rainer that some models had last week for this system.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Sloppy mix here but based on radar it’s already almost over? LOL

Ha it’s like a few hundredths to a tenth or maybe two tenths somewhere that gets “hammered” with precip.  Even if all snow and cold it’d be like an inch type event.  Passing snow squalls would bring more.

[J.Spin]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The bottom line is this is a lot better than the mild heavy rainer that some models had last week for this system.

 

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha it’s like a few hundredths to a tenth or maybe two tenths somewhere that gets “hammered” with precip.  Even if all snow and cold it’d be like an inch type event.  Passing snow squalls would bring more.

We’ve had 0.05” of L.E. thus far here at our site in the valley.

While a tenth or two of L.E. means essentially nothing in the context of snowmaking terrain, for those of us looking to get out on natural snow, this is much more significant.  Putting that L.E. down as a dense accumulation (vs. only liquid) just further enhances the base snow that’s out there right now, bolsters it for more resistance from temperatures above freezing, and preps it to be that much better of a base when the powder comes.  So while L.E. values like those don’t matter much for snowmaking trails, or even steep natural terrain, they can be very helpful for the low-angle grassy stuff that supports those early powder turns.

We’ll have to see what that potential Friday system does, but the current temperatures in the ~2,000’ elevation range are the warmest they’re forecast to be for the next week, so whatever comes from this system really could hang around to help out the natural base.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

 

We’ve had 0.05” of L.E. thus far here at our site in the valley.

While a tenth or two of L.E. means essentially nothing in the context of snowmaking terrain, for those of us looking to get out on natural snow, this is much more significant.  Putting that L.E. down as a dense accumulation (vs. only liquid) just further enhances the base snow that’s out there right now, bolsters it for more resistance from temperatures above freezing, and preps it to be that much better of a base when the powder comes.  So while L.E. values like those don’t matter much for snowmaking trails, or even steep natural terrain, they can be very helpful for the low-angle grassy stuff that supports those early powder turns.

We’ll have to see what that potential Friday system does, but the current temperatures in the ~2,000’ elevation range are the warmest they’re forecast to be for the next week, so whatever comes from this system really could hang around to help out the natural base.

Good point J.  All frozen QPF is good frozen QPF.  Relative to the frozen water on the ground naturally right now, a tenth or two increase would be a significant increase.

Up here it still blows my mind the difference between Mount Mansfield's snow preservation with that at Spruce.  Hiked Spruce today in shorts, filtered sunshine and 35-45F.  No wind.  Sterling work road was snowpacked and slick in the shade, but with plenty of snow free zones.  Meanwhile Mansfield is consistent snow cover from a low elevation on up.

[PhineasC]

Ended up with just 0.08” from this thing so far. 

[PhineasC]

I assume it's usually a good sign when the models are showing such a strong upslope signal this far out? 00z Euro and the ensembles looked really good for Friday into Monday.

[bwt3650]

The Jet looks ready to me…I think I’m twitching looking at that.