dryslot Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Its a step down for NNE and its well underway, Great to see it................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its a step down for NNE and its well underway, Great to see it................. Headed into cold cutter season it appears. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Headed into cold cutter season it appears. West is best for now, But things can and will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 Looks like the atmospheric river is a lock for Monday, but maybe after that we can get the upslope machine turned on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 12z Euro looks more like a frontal passage followed by upslope. That would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Raining and it is so dark outside right now at 2:10pm that the lights have activated in the plaza here. It looks darker out now than like 9pm in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 48 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 12z Euro looks more like a frontal passage followed by upslope. That would be good. Not a lot of snowmaking windows coming up... mostly high elevation stuff. There is a decent cold shot on Tuesday night into Wednesday that would be better for low elevations but man it warms right back up. Later in the week looks poor for snowmaking from like Thursday through Saturday as we rot around -3C to +3C at 850mb. Really need -9C at 850mb or lower to get any real appreciable snowmaking going where wet-bulbs at 1,500ft and above are 27F or lower. Snowmaking looks ok Friday afternoon and night....then out of the question except highest spots on Saturday... then nothing Sunday or Monday. This type of look is no snowmaking to be honest Thanksgiving or Friday. No snowmaking after Tuesday and Wednesday. It's going to be interesting how ski season starts. Right now it's not looking overly optimistic IMO knowing what is needed for most places to make snow. Getting a little concerned to be honest going into December, ha. We need some -10C at 850mb for more than 12 hours at a time, ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 Yeah, could be until December before most places really open. The cold second half of November idea fizzled hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 I will never say how optimistic I am about a fast start to the season again. 10 days ago, the ensembles looked like we would see a week plus of consist below normal temps and a few chances of natural. It now looks tough to get anything going in the lower elevations down to load areas. I will say that I looked back at some of the condition reports from last year and it was a struggle until that mid December storm. A lot of places in the single digits open trail count until mid December; so I guess that should put it in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 This is some torrential rain at the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 18z GFS has a retrograde thing next week that dumps snow on us next week after the front clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 18z GFS has a retrograde thing next week that dumps snow on us next week after the front clears. Please make this happen! Not too confident looking at the the 0z and 12z vs 6z and 18z. But maybe this trend at 18z will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Well, it is currently pouring and we hit 60 or a tad better today. Our 4inches of snow did not stick around long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 @alex remember when you were skiing glades in November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 1 hour ago, #NoPoles said: @alex remember when you were skiing glades in November? Funny you said that. These popped up today iin my Google Photos memories from Nov 2018 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 19, 2021 Author Share Posted November 19, 2021 Down to 37 already. Wonder if I can flip to some wet snow soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/12/2021 at 9:42 PM, bwt3650 said: 18z Gfs has me lapping Starr and Face chutes Thanksgiving weekend. If only… Still, getting stoked about a decent early season this year. On 11/12/2021 at 10:36 PM, J.Spin said: It’s November, so even if getting 40” for the spine isn’t outrageous, having no melting between snowfalls could be tough to pull off. 7 hours ago, bwt3650 said: I will never say how optimistic I am about a fast start to the season again. Was it seriously just six days ago that you were so optimistic? It feels like it was weeks ago at this point. I hadn’t realized that people were visualizing a “cold” pattern for the rest of the month – to me it just looked like it was going to be active, with our typical November snow chances. I’d think for a consistently cold pattern, we’d need to see a persistent trough in the area, and I don’t recall the models ever showing that. We’ve definitely had the snows – multiple systems at this point, and the models suggest there are more to come. I’d say there are at least three more storms with possible snow in the models? – the back side of this current system, something near the beginning of next week, and then something near the end of next week. PF has pointed out how it’s not looking like a great period for snowmaking down to base elevations, so that’s obviously tough on the resorts if they’re planning to open top-to-bottom. I’m more interested in getting out for natural snow turns though, so every storm with snow is an opportunity for that. I’ve been a bit too busy the past couple of weeks to venture out for turns, and it felt like it was still just a bit thin down low, but I’m definitely watching each storm that comes through for the next possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 19, 2021 Author Share Posted November 19, 2021 Ended up with a coating overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 I’d say after T-day it looks much better up that way. This would work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 19, 2021 Author Share Posted November 19, 2021 Upslope snow showers at 29 degrees. About an inch OTG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Have had occasional snow showers and graupel…. Mostly dippin dot graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 19, 2021 Author Share Posted November 19, 2021 Big fluffy flakes piling up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Counted a handfull of flakes just now, first ones I've actually seen this season. Yesterday's cloudy 44 max was archetypical November wx. (And the clouds hung around until after the eclipse - makes 4 consecutive lunar eclipses behind clouds here. Really hope April 8, 2024 is clear.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 19, 2021 Author Share Posted November 19, 2021 Thank goodness for uplsope! I might be able to nickel and dime my way to November average by the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 I’m down in Sunapee, NH but my wife says it’s snowing hard in Stowe. Radar looks legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Just drove thru a good snow squall on my way back from the post office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On and off flurries/snow showers interspersed with blue skies. 34.8°/29.9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 At observations time this morning I found some accumulation on the board – it was partially melted and not immediately obvious where it had come from, but the radar did show some bands that had moved through earlier. It was a few degrees above freezing at the point, so it may have been something like graupel or sleet that can survive temperatures above freezing for a while. It started snowing just as I was leaving the house, with much more standard, fluffy flakes – presumably thanks to the lakes and/or northwest flow. We’ve even had flakes falling here in Burlington today, with a couple of stronger squalls, and I see on our webcam that we’ve had some accumulation at the house as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Got busy with work and hadn't looked out the window for 10-15 minutes and when I turned around I was surprised to see the ground whitened. 31.2° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 19, 2021 Author Share Posted November 19, 2021 Squalls shifted south for now. 30 degrees with sun breaking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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