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NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022


PhineasC
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48 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

12z Euro looks more like a frontal passage followed by upslope. That would be good.

Not a lot of snowmaking windows coming up... mostly high elevation stuff.  There is a decent cold shot on Tuesday night into Wednesday that would be better for low elevations but man it warms right back up.

Later in the week looks poor for snowmaking from like Thursday through Saturday as we rot around -3C to +3C at 850mb.  Really need -9C at 850mb or lower to get any real appreciable snowmaking going where wet-bulbs at 1,500ft and above are 27F or lower.

Snowmaking looks ok Friday afternoon and night....then out of the question except highest spots on Saturday... then nothing Sunday or Monday.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7431200.thumb.png.d35e4b5638ae00153b24e1c31c67624e.png

This type of look is no snowmaking to be honest Thanksgiving or Friday.  No snowmaking after Tuesday and Wednesday.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7841600.thumb.png.673fdbc0366d2921a7529f4b4abf0e16.png

It's going to be interesting how ski season starts.  Right now it's not looking overly optimistic IMO knowing what is needed for most places to make snow.  Getting a little concerned to be honest going into December, ha.  We need some -10C at 850mb for more than 12 hours at a time, ha.

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I will never say how optimistic I am about a fast start to the season again.  10 days ago, the ensembles looked like we would see a week plus of consist below normal temps and a few chances of natural.  It now looks tough to get anything going in the lower elevations down to load areas.

 I will say that I looked back at some of the condition reports from last year and it was a struggle until that mid December storm.  A lot of places in the single digits open trail count until mid December; so I guess that should put it in perspective.

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On 11/12/2021 at 9:42 PM, bwt3650 said:

18z Gfs has me lapping Starr and Face chutes Thanksgiving weekend.  If only…

Still, getting stoked about a decent early season this year.

 

On 11/12/2021 at 10:36 PM, J.Spin said:

It’s November, so even if getting 40” for the spine isn’t outrageous, having no melting between snowfalls could be tough to pull off.

 

7 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

I will never say how optimistic I am about a fast start to the season again.

Was it seriously just six days ago that you were so optimistic?  It feels like it was weeks ago at this point.

I hadn’t realized that people were visualizing a “cold” pattern for the rest of the month – to me it just looked like it was going to be active, with our typical November snow chances.  I’d think for a consistently cold pattern, we’d need to see a persistent trough in the area, and I don’t recall the models ever showing that.

We’ve definitely had the snows – multiple systems at this point, and the models suggest there are more to come.  I’d say there are at least three more storms with possible snow in the models? – the back side of this current system, something near the beginning of next week, and then something near the end of next week.

PF has pointed out how it’s not looking like a great period for snowmaking down to base elevations, so that’s obviously tough on the resorts if they’re planning to open top-to-bottom.  I’m more interested in getting out for natural snow turns though, so every storm with snow is an opportunity for that.  I’ve been a bit too busy the past couple of weeks to venture out for turns, and it felt like it was still just a bit thin down low, but I’m definitely watching each storm that comes through for the next possibility.

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At observations time this morning I found some accumulation on the board – it was partially melted and not immediately obvious where it had come from, but the radar did show some bands that had moved through earlier.  It was a few degrees above freezing at the point, so it may have been something like graupel or sleet that can survive temperatures above freezing for a while.

It started snowing just as I was leaving the house, with much more standard, fluffy flakes – presumably thanks to the lakes and/or northwest flow.  We’ve even had flakes falling here in Burlington today, with a couple of stronger squalls, and I see on our webcam that we’ve had some accumulation at the house as well.

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