NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[MaineJayhawk]

34 minutes ago, alex said:

Nest is back

Yeah, was just up in your 'hood, Alex.  A couple inches at Crawford Depot.  Down at Willey House not a flake .. haha!

[MarkO]

It's white above about 2500'. I expected more, but it moved much quicker than I thought. Killington pounding upper mountain. I hope they can pull it off for the FIS.

[J.Spin]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Quick hitter.  9pm and moving out of this area.  The race was always between the cold air and the drier air moving in.

We had precipitation linger a little while after that main shield cut off, but it was indeed quite dry on the back side – there just wasn’t much of a hookup with additional moisture as that dry air moved in.

Down here at our elevation I could see that we got into the snow, but there was never any accumulation that I could detect.  For accumulations in the higher elevations around here I’m seeing ~4” on the Sugarbush 3,900’ webcam, ~2 on the Sugarbush 3,125’ webcam, and at the Bolton Valley 2,100’ webcam it looks like accumulations in the 1-2” range.

[bwt3650]

8 minutes ago, MarkO said:

It's white above about 2500'. I expected more, but it moved much quicker than I thought. Killington pounding upper mountain. I hope they can pull it off for the FIS.

They might be able to go for the next 72 hours straight.  I’m rooting for them too.  If they get any kind of flexibility on that measurement this week, I think they are fine for thanksgiving; but they certainly went down to the wire this year.

[J.Spin]

9 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

As this winds down, decent upslope signal on the 3k and Gfs for Monday into Tuesday. 

 

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I'm intrigued by that event for sure.  There will be some elevation dependent WAA snow/rain ahead of the upper level low.... a dusting to maybe 1-2" with a brief period of snow at 1-1.5kft+.  Then the backside WNW cyclonic flow with CAA/cold air advection... some spots (re: ski areas) could see 3-6" IMO on the return flow.

That looks like the next opportunity – with a lot more potential on the back side vs. this last one.

If indeed this current pattern holds for a couple of weeks as I saw mentioned on TWC the other day, you can see how a number of similar events could roll through by the end of the month.  Even if you just continue to get 4-6” here, 4-6” there, with a couple systems having a bit more punch, it could bring accumulations in the Northern Greens in the realm of bwt’s comment about that GFS snow map.

[MarkO]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

They might be able to go for the next 72 hours straight.  I’m rooting for them too.  If they get any kind of flexibility on that measurement this week, I think they are fine for thanksgiving; but they certainly went down to the wire this year.

72 hours is what I was thinking they need. They can really pound Superstar with guns spaced at something like 50'.

[#NoPoles]

In BW we got 3-4 inches.

Huge paste job. Everything was sooooo gorgeous this morning when the sun came up

[powderfreak]

J.Spin jackpot on the 6z EURO for the upslope event Monday evening.

12z GFS also decent signal.

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

We had precipitation linger a little while after that main shield cut off, but it was indeed quite dry on the back side – there just wasn’t much of a hookup with additional moisture as that dry air moved in.

Down here at our elevation I could see that we got into the snow, but there was never any accumulation that I could detect.  For accumulations in the higher elevations around here I’m seeing ~4” on the Sugarbush 3,900’ webcam, ~2 on the Sugarbush 3,125’ webcam, and at the Bolton Valley 2,100’ webcam it looks like accumulations in the 1-2” range.

We came in with ~2" at the Lookout snow cam... similar elevation to the Sugarbush 2".  Looking at photos from others it seemed a bit deeper on the Gondola side of the hill, maybe 3-4".

But 2" will be the number into the seasonal snow tally, with 9" so far in November.

https://player.timecam.tv/express/index.html?C=D786BEJG4F5A

[J.Spin]

On 11/12/2021 at 11:18 PM, powderfreak said:

Hoping some of this at elevation is snow... a solid shot of moisture over the next 3-4 days.

We had 0.42” of liquid with this first system, but I’m seeing higher amounts the farther wester toward the western slopes you go.  How much L.E. for the mountain thus far?  I’m assuming one had to go up to roughly ridgeline elevation to have it all/nearly all fall as snow?

[J.Spin]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

But 2" will be the number into the seasonal snow tally, with 9" so far in November.

Updates on the running accumulation at your snow plot are great – what’s the elevation there again (I know it’s somewhere in the 3,000’ range)?  It certainly looks like there will be chances for additions to the November total going forward.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Updates on the running accumulation at your snow plot are great – what’s the elevation there again (I know it’s somewhere in the 3,000’ range)?  It certainly looks like there will be chances for additions to the November total going forward.

I want to say that cam is around 3200ft?  I'd have to check but it's a bit above 3,000ft.

The 12z EURO continued with a strong orographic signal for the 24-hour period from 15z Mon until 15z Tues.  Something is going to happen in that time frame, just trying to figure out how robust.

Deep layer NW flow from the surface up through 700mb and beyond during that period.

The trajectory is pretty much perfect for the N.Greens.

[powderfreak]

Need to get above 2000ft to get the better pasting.

[wxeyeNH]

We took a ride to find snow.  I knew we would be right around the SE portion of the snow as the system passed.  I flip to some mangled flakes at the very end last evening.  This morning I could see snow around the 1750 foot level of Ragged and Cardigan.  

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

In BW we got 3-4 inches.

Huge paste job. Everything was sooooo gorgeous this morning when the sun came up

Your pics looked awesome!

[bwt3650]

Decent amount of qpf and blocked flow, though ratios don’t look spectacular.  Still, should be first legit upslope of the season if I’m interpreting this right.

 

[powderfreak]

BTV AFD snippet:

As these westerly winds increase, upslope snow will ramp up with favorable snow growth over the mountains. Froude numbers will generally be in the 0.8 to 1 range supporting slow moving flow and heavy upslope snow along the spine of the mountains. These areas may see storm totals in the range of six to nine inches of snowfall through Tuesday morning.

[PhineasC]

3k and GFS drop about half an inch of liquid here over the next two days, that's pretty healthy for upslope around here. Temps are not great so not expecting too much accumulation here, but it should be snowy at least.

[backedgeapproaching]

Nice look for you guys up north--maybe a few scraps overnight here..we'll see.

[powderfreak]

18z HRRR had a good shot of water along the Northern Spine.

[#NoPoles]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Your pics looked awesome!

Thanks, it was really  beautiful this morning when the sun came up

[bwt3650]

It definitely looked and felt like winter today.  Hope this and the early week upslope is the start of our snowpack.

[PhineasC]

Based on radar snow should be breaking out in the usual spots now?

[powderfreak]

18z EURO continuing to signal upslope event tomorrow afternoon and evening.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Based on radar snow should be breaking out in the usual spots now?

Seems dry at the surface still but I see flakes on the Snow Cam at 3,000ft.  So it’s moistening up, looks like it just started up high.

[DavisStraight]

38 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Based on radar snow should be breaking out in the usual spots now?

Is that stuff in New York going to get to you guys?

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Is that stuff in New York going to get to you guys?

I think tonight is supposed to be pretty minor, tomorrow is the better bet for accumulations on a stiff NW flow.

[#NoPoles]

Colder tonight than it was last night. Last nights snow was so water logged. I was just trying to push the snow to the sides of the driveway and off of some rental property decks and it was like trying to move a heard of elephants

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Is that stuff in New York going to get to you guys?

I think radar is more bark than bite with this one.  1-2" possible above 1,500ft... coating to 1" below IMO.  A widespread 0.07-0.20" QPF type event.

[powderfreak]

White rain here.  Loud, sounds frozen.  Flood lights show fast moving frozen cores falling.  Leads me to believe it’s snowing up the road.  About as expected with this WAA precip.

BTV radar suggests above 1500-1700ft it’s a more pure snow.  It usually takes up to 1,000 vertical feet to go from full, cold snowflake to melted rain drop… the radar signature from bright banding and what’s falling here confirm a 1500ft+ snow level for accumulation.