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NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022


PhineasC
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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Hoping some of this at elevation is snow... a solid shot of moisture over the next 3-4 days.

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Even if that projected liquid ends up being a bit high, it’s hard to imagine that it’s not going to be a good shot of snow from 3,000’ on up.  The Mansfield point forecast has precipitation changing over to snow just a couple of hours from now, the temperatures don’t even go above freezing until midweek, and the next few days suggest plenty of snow chances.  It depends on what elevation you’re talking about, but in the region of your upper mountain plot, it sure looks like snow is on the way.

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3 hours ago, MarkO said:

I think it's going to play out similar to the October 17th storm of last year. Many hours of white rain for me, but piling up above 3k'. I think Phin and Alex will get some decent accumulations maybe in the 2-4" range, but summits will be at least 6, maybe up to 10+

I’m not sure, going to need to happen quick in about 3-4 hours of work.  I’m leaning more 3-5” summits and 0-2” below 2,000ft.  925mb temps stay 0C or 1C.  Though I think 1500ft ends with the ground white.

I just don’t think the QPF will be there for 5-6”+.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I’m not sure, going to need to happen quick in about 3-4 hours of work.  I’m leaning more 3-5” summits and 0-2” below 2,000ft.  925mb temps stay 0C or 1C.  Though I think 1500ft ends with the ground white.

I just don’t think the QPF will be there for 5-6”+.

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I don’t know about those lower elevations, but Mansfield hour forecast has it snowing through 1:00 A.M., so I don’t think the snow has to fall in just a few hours.  The precipitation has already changed over to snow on the Sugarbush Summit Cam up near 4,000’, so presumably the peaks farther north have changed over as well.

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Non-accumulating wet snow at 3,600ft.  Still seeing mid-30s up here.

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LOL, I didn’t know if you’d be up at the mountain today – but your observations seem to line up right with what was showing up on the Sugarbush Summit Cam.  The Bolton summit cam  at ~3,100’ has been showing some snow now as well.  There are many high elevation options around now to watch that snow level drop in the Northern/Central Greens.  Jay Peak needs to get their act together with respect to an upper mountain cam as well; they of course have an amazing spot for monitoring snow in the range.

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57 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I don’t know about those lower elevations, but Mansfield hour forecast has it snowing through 1:00 A.M., so I don’t think the snow has to fall in just a few hours.  The precipitation has already changed over to snow on the Sugarbush Summit Cam up near 4,000’, so presumably the peaks farther north have changed over as well.

Just looking at the models… 0 precip falls from 8-9pm.  It’s now to 7pm or so for us.

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46 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just looking at the models… 0 precip falls from 8-9pm.  It’s now to 7pm or so for us.

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I’m totally on board with your accumulations estimates, but I just don’t know if the snow is going to shut off that fast without any backside lingering like we typically see.  It seems like once those initial pulses push through, there’s almost always some snow that hangs around as the back side of the system moves through and some winds shift.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

BTV bright banding would suggest snow levels in the 1000-2000ft range right now.

We’re already starting to get frozen precipitation down here at 500’, so the snow level is definitely descending now.  For accumulations on the Sugarbush cams I’m seeing ~0.5” at 3,125’ and ~3” at 3,900’.

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