J.Spin Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 9 hours ago, powderfreak said: Hoping some of this at elevation is snow... a solid shot of moisture over the next 3-4 days. Even if that projected liquid ends up being a bit high, it’s hard to imagine that it’s not going to be a good shot of snow from 3,000’ on up. The Mansfield point forecast has precipitation changing over to snow just a couple of hours from now, the temperatures don’t even go above freezing until midweek, and the next few days suggest plenty of snow chances. It depends on what elevation you’re talking about, but in the region of your upper mountain plot, it sure looks like snow is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 I think it's going to play out similar to the October 17th storm of last year. Many hours of white rain for me, but piling up above 3k'. I think Phin and Alex will get some decent accumulations maybe in the 2-4" range, but summits will be at least 6, maybe up to 10+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 hours ago, MarkO said: I think it's going to play out similar to the October 17th storm of last year. Many hours of white rain for me, but piling up above 3k'. I think Phin and Alex will get some decent accumulations maybe in the 2-4" range, but summits will be at least 6, maybe up to 10+ I’m not sure, going to need to happen quick in about 3-4 hours of work. I’m leaning more 3-5” summits and 0-2” below 2,000ft. 925mb temps stay 0C or 1C. Though I think 1500ft ends with the ground white. I just don’t think the QPF will be there for 5-6”+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Quick shot . In and out . I’m hoping for a inch at 1500 (staying at Spruce peak) May need to drive to 2500 in am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 FWIW, P&C now saying 2-4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Non-accumulating wet snow at 3,600ft. Still seeing mid-30s up here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I’m not sure, going to need to happen quick in about 3-4 hours of work. I’m leaning more 3-5” summits and 0-2” below 2,000ft. 925mb temps stay 0C or 1C. Though I think 1500ft ends with the ground white. I just don’t think the QPF will be there for 5-6”+. I don’t know about those lower elevations, but Mansfield hour forecast has it snowing through 1:00 A.M., so I don’t think the snow has to fall in just a few hours. The precipitation has already changed over to snow on the Sugarbush Summit Cam up near 4,000’, so presumably the peaks farther north have changed over as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Non-accumulating wet snow at 3,600ft. Still seeing mid-30s up here. LOL, I didn’t know if you’d be up at the mountain today – but your observations seem to line up right with what was showing up on the Sugarbush Summit Cam. The Bolton summit cam at ~3,100’ has been showing some snow now as well. There are many high elevation options around now to watch that snow level drop in the Northern/Central Greens. Jay Peak needs to get their act together with respect to an upper mountain cam as well; they of course have an amazing spot for monitoring snow in the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 57 minutes ago, J.Spin said: I don’t know about those lower elevations, but Mansfield hour forecast has it snowing through 1:00 A.M., so I don’t think the snow has to fall in just a few hours. The precipitation has already changed over to snow on the Sugarbush Summit Cam up near 4,000’, so presumably the peaks farther north have changed over as well. Just looking at the models… 0 precip falls from 8-9pm. It’s now to 7pm or so for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Pounding snow at Stratton 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Looks like Mitch had some TSSN. Just chilly rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 46 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just looking at the models… 0 precip falls from 8-9pm. It’s now to 7pm or so for us. I’m totally on board with your accumulations estimates, but I just don’t know if the snow is going to shut off that fast without any backside lingering like we typically see. It seems like once those initial pulses push through, there’s almost always some snow that hangs around as the back side of the system moves through and some winds shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Mount Snow to Killington looks like the jackpots so far. The core of the ULL went right over the southern Greens, makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Getting some solid dumpage now..33.6F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Just flipped to steady light snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 BTV bright banding would suggest snow levels in the 1000-2000ft range right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeppy Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 I don't expect more than a few flakes down here but I went from 43 to 36 in about 40 minutes. Thunder also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: BTV bright banding would suggest snow levels in the 1000-2000ft range right now. We’re already starting to get frozen precipitation down here at 500’, so the snow level is definitely descending now. For accumulations on the Sugarbush cams I’m seeing ~0.5” at 3,125’ and ~3” at 3,900’. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 First actual accum for the season..baby steps 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: First actual accum for the season..baby steps Nice man! 37F here and still rain here. But I never thought we’d see anything down here in the village with this round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Good scene at the top of Sugarbush… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 PWS network showing some temps around freezing now along the Spine on either side. As expected that west slope of Mansfield is the coldest with the upslope cooling going on with westerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 44 no precip yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patriot21 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 32 or 33 and just flipped to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Snow here too, ground going white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 54 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: First actual accum for the season..baby steps Like you mentioned, we had the dynamics and rates to flip right over head as opposed to up there. Snow level looks like 900-950ft for any type of stickage. Town at 700' is just wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 @cpickett79has been seeing snow at 1500ft since about 6pm he said it flipped up there. I might need to take a ride up after grabbing some food from the Matterhorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Just noticed it’s wet snow now down at 750ft. Far too wet to accumulate but it’s flakes. So about 90 minutes to go from a snow level at 1500ft to the valley floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeppy Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 This was at 6:15, no precip at the moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 14, 2021 Author Share Posted November 14, 2021 Seems like some flakes mixing in here. Not much precip yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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