NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that sounds about right.  I think 1500ft can whiten up at the tail end.

It’s really only like a 3-5 hour burst as it moves through.  I think it’ll immediately wet-bulb the snow level down to like 2500ft when precip starts but holds there for a while.  Then towards the end of the steady precip we see the snow levels drop down to even 1,000ft… but wet ground and waning precip keeps accumulations 1500ft or higher.

The timing is perfect though over your way Phin.  The best precip rates look to coincide with the coldest diurnal time of day (early Sunday morning)… so that time of day can sometimes surprise with snowfall levels lower than anticipated.

Yeah, the models look pretty good to me for a quick shot and a coating here, at least. The models also look pretty cold and snowy to me for the last ten days of the month. Way out there in time, I get that. But a good look.

[DavisStraight]

37 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, the models look pretty good to me for a quick shot and a coating here, at least. The models also look pretty cold and snowy to me for the last ten days of the month. Way out there in time, I get that. But a good look.

Looking 10 days out you should have a some decent snow cover for Thanksgiving.

[powderfreak]

45 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, the models look pretty good to me for a quick shot and a coating here, at least. The models also look pretty cold and snowy to me for the last ten days of the month. Way out there in time, I get that. But a good look.

Yeah it looks like a classic stretch of light events but lots of activity and flakes in the air.  The type of stuff that can add up over time for the elevations.  It's great this time of year, exciting squalls, periods of snow showers, just the ground being white is a novelty.  By March we are a bit jaded but right now, even showery, cold pool light accumulations are really fun.  Meteorology definitely is more fun in the cold season than it is during the warm season.  I find myself checking the models more frequently with each passing day.

[bwt3650]

43 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, the models look pretty good to me for a quick shot and a coating here, at least. The models also look pretty cold and snowy to me for the last ten days of the month. Way out there in time, I get that. But a good look.

I like the look for a solid start to the ski season late month.  After this weekend, there looks to be some solid snow making windows and lots of chances.  Jay should see some upslope stuff too next week.  Last year, the day before Thanksgiving washed out all but each resorts “signature” first trail and we got off to a very slow start.  I feel much better about this year once past this weekend.  Would love to see that upslope machine start to build some base up by pf and I. 

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it looks like a classic stretch of light events but lots of activity and flakes in the air.  The type of stuff that can add up over time for the elevations.  It's great this time of year, exciting squalls, periods of snow showers, just the ground being white is a novelty.  By March we are a bit jaded but right now, even showery, cold pool light accumulations are really fun.  Meteorology definitely is more fun in the cold season than it is during the warm season.  I find myself checking the models more frequently with each passing day.

Looks like decent snowmaking weather to me. I am not expecting a blockbuster storm IMBY, but it would be nice to get some turns in the last few days of the month. 

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Looks like decent snowmaking weather to me. I am not expecting a blockbuster storm IMBY, but it would be nice to get some turns in the last few days of the month. 

Hopefully there are some good clear/cold set ups where all elevations go low.  Snow cover would help.  Showery regimes with rounds of vort maxes moving through, they tend to keep the wet-bulb temps up.  We need some highs in the 20s at 1500ft.  Elevation dependent precipitation types usually means disappointing snowmaking.  26-34F type temps can be fun with natural precipitation but snowmaking really starts to succeed at wet-bulbs under 26F for 6-8+ hours.  Above that it can be hard to justify the effort.

It's certainly the most wintry look of the season and will be most welcomed.

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that sounds about right.  I think 1500ft can whiten up at the tail end.  Coating to 2” seems reasonable for that elevation… 1-2” if it flips early, coating if it’s the tail end.

It’s really only like a 3-5 hour burst as it moves through.  I think it’ll immediately wet-bulb the snow level down to like 2500ft when precip starts but holds there for a while.  Then towards the end of the steady precip we see the snow levels drop down to even 1,000ft… but wet ground and waning precip keeps accumulations 1500ft or higher.

The timing is perfect though over your way Phin.  The best precip rates look to coincide with the coldest diurnal time of day (early Sunday morning)… so that time of day can sometimes surprise with snowfall levels lower than anticipated.

These marginal events can also favor west slopes locally (the other side of Mansfield) and over towards Alex…as a marginal sounding can get a little upslope cooling assist when the low level winds go NW.  Even that extra few tenths or half a degree Celsius of cooling from forced ascent can be the difference of many hundred feet of snow levels.

I’m sure you’ve seen the BTV NWS AFD, but they have snow getting down to similar levels:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

724 PM EST Thu Nov 11 2021

 SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As of 335 PM EST Thursday...main forecast points remain valid from the previous runs. Snow levels will lower into the 1000-1500 range with potential for some accumulating snow. Current estimates favor 1-2 inches of snow for elevations down to around 1200ft with 2-4 inches for higher terrain. Very light slushy accumulations will be possible down to around 800ft during the heaviest precipitation period: 00Z Sun through 06Z Sun. For the Northeast Kingdom, consensus forecast amounts are around 1-3 inches, but there are some scenarios that show up to 5 inches possible. The higher amounts would occur if more convective elements were present along and ahead of the wave which some mesoscale models are beginning to show the potential for or if the deepening of the wave slows its exit somewhat.  

[powderfreak]

Some good energy in the trough coming up early next week... maybe a chance of some squally weather?

[eyewall]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Some good energy in the trough coming up early next week... maybe a chance of some squally weather?

I always loved those November snow squalls. We are in full foliage season now here. Colors in my area are the best in a few years.

[PhineasC]

P&C has 1-2" here for Saturday evening.

[PhineasC]

GYX latest:

Quote

As a strong low continues to wrap up across northern
Quebec, a second cold front will push through our region. This will
bring a quick burst of cold air and precipitation. With the strength
of the front, expect strong lift along the boundary which will allow
for thunder to be a possibility in the south through afternoon.
Meanwhile across the northern portion of the area by night fall
temperatures will be cold enough to support accumulating snow
down to the surface. Forecast soundings have a small layer of
low level instability and Snow squall parameter indicates squall
potential extending into northern New Hampshire and western
maine overnight Saturday into Sunday. With this in mind have
slightly upped the snow ratios to reflect a quick hitting fluffy
snow but the timing of these impacts will need to be further
refined later. Additionally gusty winds are expected behind the
front as cold air moves into the region.

 

[alex]

20 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

GYX latest:

 

I'm on my way to Jamaica. It's guaranteed to snow lol

[dryslot]

I like the new look.

[powderfreak]

18z NAM.

[backedgeapproaching]

Totally off topic, but after 15 years at a job I could do in my sleep and barely had to do anything, this new job I've been at for 6 weeks has really put a big dent in forum browsing time, should have waited till Spring 

Decent winds this morning, 43 mph on Davis..lost a few shingles too which sucks.  Finally got anemometer mount for roof, try to get it up this weekend weather permitting.

Like Dryslot said, think I like the new graphics..

 

[powderfreak]

BTV’s version.  Fits the thoughts from last couple days.  3-6” summits down to sloppy coating-1” around 1,000-1,500ft.

[dendrite]

I’m kinda partial to the old graphics for nostalgia reasons.

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

BTV’s version.  Fits the thoughts from last couple days.  3-6” summits down to sloppy coating-1” around 1,000-1,500ft.

Unfortunately, you can’t get a feeling for what the map suggests in the area where the Winooski Valley passes through the spine, since it’s covered by the I-89 icon.  If the accumulation gradient is based simply off elevation, then I guess it would be that base, light blue shading as shown for the Lamoille Valley.  It’s always fun to see what happens here though because sometimes we get that orographic enhancement that boosts precipitation rates and lowers snow levels below what they would be without the terrain (as I think you mentioned in a discussion the other day).

[PhineasC]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m kinda partial to the old graphics for nostalgia reasons.

I lucked out and was in MD for that one and preoccupied with early Christmas stuff so it stung a lot less than it would have otherwise. 

[backedgeapproaching]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m kinda partial to the old graphics for nostalgia reasons.

The old merlot red..or whatever the heck shade that is..we enjoyed, until it was wiped clean before xmas 

 

[backedgeapproaching]

Wonder if that light purple has ever been used in New England? Outside of MWN and some peaks and lake effect belts. I guess you don't predict 48"+ very often..lol.

[powderfreak]

That was one of my favorite events to watch unfold even being well out of it.  I remember being at the Mtn Ops Center at 5am and getting no work done drooling over the BGM observations… I’ve never seen those hourly water values in a cold season fronto band.

My sister’s pics were insanity of like 40” overnight near the BGM airport.

[bwt3650]

18z Gfs has me lapping Starr and Face chutes Thanksgiving weekend.  If only…

 

Still, getting stoked about a decent early season this year.

[PhineasC]

45 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

18z Gfs has me lapping Starr and Face chutes Thanksgiving weekend.  If only…

 

Still, getting stoked about a decent early season this year.

Yeah that's one hell of a storm on Thanksgiving.

[J.Spin]

55 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

18z Gfs has me lapping Starr and Face chutes Thanksgiving weekend.  If only…

The 18Z GFS map below presumably covers the period you’re talking about – it goes through the 28^th, which is Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend.  That obviously spans a couple weeks out from today, and we know the reliability of models beyond about a week, but whatever happens, that’s simply not very far-fetched for the spine of the Northern Greens in November if one just thinks about average snowfall.  If we average ~15” here at our site in November, that means that sites at elevation along the spine around here (such as the upper elevations of Jay Peak and Mansfield) should average ~30” in November.  PF may be able to tell you what his 3,000’ plot averages for November, but he may not have solid monthly data if he doesn’t start diligently monitoring until the resort opens.

It’s hard to tell exactly how much snowfall the map is suggesting along the spine, but let’s say ~40” based on the coloring.  That’s not even LOL-worthy; we’ve had almost that much down at our house just in the last 20 days of November before, so for Jay Peak or Mansfield to pull that off would be a piece of cake.  At this point, it’s becoming more and more apparent that this isn’t lining up to be one of those Novembers with wall-to-wall above average temperatures that result in little if any snowfall.  So I’d argue that the snowfall projected on the map isn’t really outrageous, but skiing Starr or the Face Chutes would probably be pushing it.  It’s November, so there’s really no base in place, and unless we get 40” of absolute cement (not our typical density), that amount of snow isn’t quite going to cut it for that terrain.  It’s November, so even if getting 40” for the spine isn’t outrageous, having no melting between snowfalls could be tough to pull off.

I don’t know about the rest of the locations on there, but that snowfall depicted along the spine of the Northern Greens in the map could certainly be achieved.

[PhineasC]

That's the most detailed analysis I have seen an 18z GFS clown map receive in a long time, J. Spin. haha  

[powderfreak]

The 18z Euro had a healthy 6-hour burst along the Green Mountains tomorrow evening.  The vort max and best upper level support goes from C.VT to N.NH and W.ME.  That to me is the path that may see lower snow levels.

 

[powderfreak]

Hoping some of this at elevation is snow... a solid shot of moisture over the next 3-4 days.

[bwt3650]

49 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

The 18Z GFS map below presumably covers the period you’re talking about – it goes through the 28^th, which is Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend.  That obviously spans a couple weeks out from today, and we know the reliability of models beyond about a week, but whatever happens, that’s simply not very far-fetched for the spine of the Northern Greens in November if one just thinks about average snowfall.  If we average ~15” here at our site in November, that means that sites at elevation along the spine around here (such as the upper elevations of Jay Peak and Mansfield) should average ~30” in November.  PF may be able to tell you what his 3,000’ plot averages for November, but he may not have solid monthly data if he doesn’t start diligently monitoring until the resort opens.

It’s hard to tell exactly how much snowfall the map is suggesting along the spine, but let’s say ~40” based on the coloring.  That’s not even LOL-worthy; we’ve had almost that much down at our house just in the last 20 days of November before, so for Jay Peak or Mansfield to pull that off would be a piece of cake.  At this point, it’s becoming more and more apparent that this isn’t lining up to be one of those Novembers with wall-to-wall above average temperatures that result in little if any snowfall.  So I’d argue that the snowfall projected on the map isn’t really outrageous, but skiing Starr or the Face Chutes would probably be pushing it.  It’s November, so there’s really no base in place, and unless we get 40” of absolute cement (not our typical density), that amount of snow isn’t quite going to cut it for that terrain.  It’s November, so even if getting 40” for the spine isn’t outrageous, having no melting between snowfalls could be tough to pull off.

I don’t know about the rest of the locations on there, but that snowfall depicted along the spine of the Northern Greens in the map could certainly be achieved.

Thanks, J.Spin.  Wasn’t serious about Starr and the chutes but your comments make me optimistic about the start.  Last year it wasn’t until early Jan we had that base building storm.  Hopefully, this year we build some quick base, get a below normal start to December and then let climatology do it’s thing and we could be in good shape.  One thing I’ve learned in the short time up here is don’t fear the red anomalies during mid winter in the northern greens.  

[J.Spin]

9 hours ago, PhineasC said:

That's the most detailed analysis I have seen an 18z GFS clown map receive in a long time, J. Spin. haha  

Well, I think most of the discussion ended up being about Northern Greens climo in the end.  From what I’ve seen, those maps tend to get a bad rap because they can cover extended periods where accuracy wanes, and they apply a variety of (sometimes-flawed) algorithms in simplistic ways.  It seems the even bigger knock against them is that weenie types tend to post them to somehow bring the tiniest pinch of faint reality to their unrealistic, sensationalistic snow dreams.  If those maps occasionally happen to approach actual climo and reality, we just roll with it I guess.