NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[powderfreak]

2:30pm and still frost in the shadows from this morning despite temps in town in the upper 40s.  I don’t get it lol.

[powderfreak]

Out for the afternoon meander in the sun.  The cold dark side still very snowy.

Will do a hike over there on the winter side tomorrow.

[tamarack]

48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

2:30pm and still frost in the shadows from this morning despite temps in town in the upper 40s.  I don’t get it lol.

Low RH causing 'sublimational' cooling?

[powderfreak]

Watching the snowmaking plumes on the ridge get backlit by the setting sun yesterday evening.  Looks like at least until the 14th or 15th of November now before any real snowmaking progress can be made.  Looks like the last true mild period before colder regimes settle in.

[alex]

@PhineasCprojected opening day Nov 17th. And since I’ll be in Jamaica, expect feet of snow ahead of it lol

[PhineasC]

Nice, thanks man!

[powderfreak]

Checking out the snowmaking now that the system is off… what a great day to be outside.

[PhineasC]

Pretty amazing what those snowmakers can do in just a couple days.

[bwt3650]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Checking out the snowmaking now that the system is off… what a great day to be outside.

That’s some nice edge to edge coverage..what trail is that?

[bwt3650]

Not hating the time change right now..kind of enjoy the early sunset, being lazy watching football.  It’s like another step toward full blown winter.

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Checking out the snowmaking now that the system is off… what a great day to be outside.

Seeing those sled tracks makes my thumb itch.

[DavisStraight]

3 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Not hating the time change right now..kind of enjoy the early sunset, being lazy watching football.  It’s like another step toward full blown winter.

Takes me a while to adjust, once I do I love winter weather.

[mreaves]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Checking out the snowmaking now that the system is off… what a great day to be outside.

@dryslot @WinterWolf check out the tracks. It’s time to start thinking about sledding. 
 

Edit: lol. I guess I should have read further down the thread. I was ninja'd!

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Pretty amazing what those snowmakers can do in just a couple days.

It is.  Temps were solid up high.  We didn't do much production at all in the 2,500-1,500ft elevation though.  A place like Killington has a huge advantage with the upper mountain lift system there in the North Ridge area.... they are making snow at 3,400-4,000ft to open for the season.  The base of that lift is just above 3,400ft (for example that photo I posted is from 3,300ft).  Then even the Killington Base Lodge is at like 2,500ft!  Up here, that's like the mid-mountain elevation... it makes for a harder time of it this time of year when trying to cover 1,500ft to 3,600ft.

So we didn't do any appreciable snowmaking in this last stretch below 2,500ft.  We like a wet-bulb of 26F or lower for the most part for the tower guns and fan guns we use.  We don't have many, if any, of those land frame (tripod) ratnik guns that sound like a jet airplane taking off next to you.  But the noise is because they can make snow at higher temps and are compressed air hogs.  That's why you see Killington bust out those tripod snow guns to open up early in the season, as those land frames can make snow at higher temps than the tower gun technology (which are energy efficient, but the trade off is lower temps are needed).

Just while musing about weather and snowmaking... at Stowe our biggest issue is last bit to the base area (below Crossover on the trail map).  It is a classic mid-slope climatology at 1,500-1,800ft.  It does not radiate, despite the early shadows.  I think that air is always flowing down the hill or out of Smugglers Notch as the cold air drain follows the river.  As we know on this forum, not all elevations are made equal... 1,500ft at the ski area represents more mid-slope climo rather than say @alex's 1,500ft radiational cooling.

It does lead to a perception issue with locals who aren't quite familiar with the mesoscale differences that various terrain can have with regards to temps.  The last several days the cold night spots have been the valley/village and the upper mountain.  The warmer zone has been the mid-slope.  On radiational nights, we often can get like a low-20s valley, upper 20s midslope, and low-20s summit type thermal sounding.  So you can turn the snow guns on in the mid-slope but it's marginal and shorter duration.  Snowmaking is most productive on the upper mountain and if needed, you could make snow in the valley under the inversion for quite a while too.

People wake up though to cold temps at home and assume the mountain is just as cold or colder.  Even when they check the Mansfield summit station they might see good cold temps, look outside their windows and see good cold temperatures... so they assume that between the two is just as cold and likewise assume snowmaking took place top-to-bottom all night long.  Then there are a lot of questions about why snowmaking didn't happen around the base area.  Reality is, it just didn't get that cold for a long enough period of time to be productive.  Sure it dipped to 27F briefly but mostly it rotted around 30-32F all night type of stuff.

Local climatology has a big effect on early season snowmaking, which is pretty interesting to me, ha.  That was a Tippy novel but not as well written.

[PhineasC]

Thanks for the write-up PF. Makes sense to me. I have been seeing the same mid-slope climo deal here last several nights. 

[bwt3650]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It is.  Temps were solid up high.  We didn't do much production at all in the 2,500-1,500ft elevation though.  A place like Killington has a huge advantage with the upper mountain lift system there in the North Ridge area.... they are making snow at 3,400-4,000ft to open for the season.  The base of that lift is just above 3,400ft (for example that photo I posted is from 3,300ft).  Then even the Killington Base Lodge is at like 2,500ft!  Up here, that's like the mid-mountain elevation... it makes for a harder time of it this time of year when trying to cover 1,500ft to 3,600ft.

So we didn't do any appreciable snowmaking in this last stretch below 2,500ft.  We like a wet-bulb of 26F or lower for the most part for the tower guns and fan guns we use.  We don't have many, if any, of those land frame (tripod) ratnik guns that sound like a jet airplane taking off next to you.  But the noise is because they can make snow at higher temps and are compressed air hogs.  That's why you see Killington bust out those tripod snow guns to open up early in the season, as those land frames can make snow at higher temps than the tower gun technology (which are energy efficient, but the trade off is lower temps are needed).

Just while musing about weather and snowmaking... at Stowe our biggest issue is last bit to the base area (below Crossover on the trail map).  It is a classic mid-slope climatology at 1,500-1,800ft.  It does not radiate, despite the early shadows.  I think that air is always flowing down the hill or out of Smugglers Notch as the cold air drain follows the river.  As we know on this forum, not all elevations are made equal... 1,500ft at the ski area represents more mid-slope climo rather than say @alex's 1,500ft radiational cooling.

It does lead to a perception issue with locals who aren't quite familiar with the mesoscale differences that various terrain can have with regards to temps.  The last several days the cold night spots have been the valley/village and the upper mountain.  The warmer zone has been the mid-slope.  On radiational nights, we often can get like a low-20s valley, upper 20s midslope, and low-20s summit type thermal sounding.  So you can turn the snow guns on in the mid-slope but it's marginal and shorter duration.  Snowmaking is most productive on the upper mountain and if needed, you could make snow in the valley under the inversion for quite a while too.

People wake up though to cold temps at home and assume the mountain is just as cold or colder.  Even when they check the Mansfield summit station they might see good cold temps, look outside their windows and see good cold temperatures... so they assume that between the two is just as cold and likewise assume snowmaking took place top-to-bottom all night long.  Then there are a lot of questions about why snowmaking didn't happen around the base area.  Reality is, it just didn't get that cold for a long enough period of time to be productive.  Sure it dipped to 27F briefly but mostly it rotted around 30-32F all night type of stuff.

Local climatology has a big effect on early season snowmaking, which is pretty interesting to me, ha.  That was a Tippy novel but not as well written.

Cool learning these details about snowmaking.  How long a window do they usually want to turn the system on?

I would honestly love to do that job in retirement if it wasn’t for the hours.   I could deal with the cold and physical aspect, but after years of working midnights, I don’t if I could do the overnights.  Those hours beat the shit out if you. 

[J.Spin]

21 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Historical records show that the second half of November can absolutely slay here. Would be awesome to get an early start to winter. Feels like a long time since I have seen that. 

Unfortunately, I think that the timing of your move to your NH place probably just served to enhance that.  The two preceding seasons were ridiculously early starts – you can see how much they stand out in the plot below.  Think about that – just two seasons ago, the permanent winter snowpack was starting today – even in the lower mountain valleys.  That’s a tough start for anyone that didn’t have their winter prep work done by that point.

For winter snowpack start dates at our site, the mean is 12/2, and the median is 12/5, so the dates from ’18-‘19 and ’19-‘20 are way ahead of average.  Last season’s 12/6 start wasn’t actually all that far off from average, but it was so thin at periods in both mid-December and around Christmas that it ended up feeling like a much later start.

[J.Spin]

On 11/4/2021 at 9:56 AM, J.Spin said:

Maybe you’ll have the opportunity to see the tenor of another shot soon.  I figured this overall event was generally winding down today, but I saw on the models, most obvious in the mesoscale realm, that there’s another pulse of moisture in play that should be something to watch into tomorrow morning.  There’s a ~260° connection off Ontario that’s most obvious on the 3K and 12K NAM.  It varies from model to model, but it’s enough to get into the near term BTV NWS AFD:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

735 AM EDT Thu Nov 4 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 735 AM EDT Thursday...another round of lake effect precipitation is expected later this afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves through. Not anticipating as widespread areal coverage as yesterday, nor as intense showers, given weaker instability and lack of unidirectional wind shear....regardless though a few scattered rain/snow showers mainly for the Adirondacks and into the northern VT area expected this afternoon/evening. Light snow accumulations are likely over the higher terrain (less than one inch) with mainly rain or trace amounts of snow for the valleys. Temps will continue below normal across the area today with highs in the low to mid 40s.

 

On 11/4/2021 at 12:42 PM, powderfreak said:

Have some light snow falling again at the mountain.

Just some weak radar returns and just lazy flakes.

I think what you saw on Thursday was about it for the last potential shot of that snowfall event – I don’t think there was much of any snow in the lower valleys from that.

My students have been telling me about a few folks that got out for turns on the snow from the recent event, but it seemed really marginal/borderline.  Apparently, Mansfield saw 6” or so up around 3,000’ based on the reports I heard from you?  I’d assume something similar at Bolton, and based on their base area webcam, it looked like maybe 3-4” at 2,000’?  The word I heard was that folks were mostly straight lining in the available snow, which is fun for the novelty I guess, but my threshold is typically around 6”+ on low angle, appropriately manicured terrain – something that will let you make some real turns without too much concern.

After this pleasant stretch, we’ll potentially start to get into some snow chances again though.  There’s a hint of some possible flakes in the higher elevations tonight into tomorrow, and then more potential toward the weekend:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

934 AM EST Tue Nov 9 2021

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 257 AM EST Tuesday...

A dry slot will quickly wrap in Friday night and steady rainfall will quickly come to an end.  The center of the occluded system will become quasi-stationary over western Quebec near James Bay over the weekend, leading to a period of cooler and showery weather for the North Country.  These showers will mainly be in the form of rain for valley locations, however some brief light snow showers can`t be ruled out.  Higher elevations will see primarily rain showers during the days and some snow showers overnight as temperatures drop to below freezing.

[PhineasC]

12z GFS is pretty snowy for elevated NNE the back half of November.

[J.Spin]

On TWC this morning they were talking about the snow potential around here in the coming days, so I guess it’s getting into that closer range.  It looks like there are multiple chances from Saturday night right through Tuesday:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

659 AM EST Thu Nov 11 2021

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As of 351 AM EST Thursday...Initially southerly 850mb winds of 20 to 30 knots wl result in 850mb temps 0-1C on Saturday aftn, supporting snow level around summit level (4000 ft or higher), but as winds shift to the west/southwest again btwn 00z-03z, slightly cooler air arrives, also helped by evaporational/dynamical cooling. However, progged 925mb temps still stay either side of 0c thru 12z Sunday, resulting in pretty high snow levels thru the event. Crnt thinking shows snow levels dropping to 1200 to 1500 feet by 06z or so, supported by freezing levels near this elevation. As far as accumulations, thinking 2 to 5 inches near summit level with a dusting to 1 inch for 1200 to 1500 level, while 1 to 3 inches is possible acrs the midslope locations.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 351 AM EST Thursday...Have mention chc pops for Sunday night into Tues associated with s/w forcing and enhanced mid lvl moisture, along with developing upslope flow under modest llvl caa. Have focused the highest pops in the upslope regions of the northern Dacks into the mtns of central/northern VT attm with values in the chc range (30 to 50%). We will be watching closely the potential for a stronger system which would produce more widespread precip acrs our cwa. Once again thermal profiles support mainly elevation depend snowfall potential, as progged 925mb temps hover either side of 0C thru 00z Tues, before cooler air arrives with developing northwest flow on Tues.

[PhineasC]

The event on Sunday is definitely looking more interesting. 

[J.Spin]

On 11/9/2021 at 2:02 PM, PhineasC said:

12z GFS is pretty snowy for elevated NNE the back half of November.

I typically find that the models/forecasts up to about a week out are reasonably good for dialing in specific storms/events when we’re in a bread and butter-style pattern and no phasing is required.  That’s definitely helpful in planning which days/times to head out for turns, and that’s bona fide utility right there in the models.  I’m sure the accuracy for what we’re getting there is well improved from a couple of decades ago, because it’s often very good.  Most of the time all I need to do is pop up the GFS MSLP/Precipitation frames on TT, check on what it shows for the next several days, cross check with the BTV NWS forecast discussion, and then watch as the shortwaves roll through as predicted.  To me that seems like a real high level of practical utility coming from my tax dollars at work.

Beyond that roughly one week timeframe though, I just don’t get the utility in the models.  Sure, one can get a sense for patterns that set up “storm chances” or snowy periods, but, without specific dates for storms, or any real certainty that they’re going to happen, what’s the point?  Does anyone really change anything in their life based on what the “weeklies” show?  Just about all we ever hear about on here is how poorly they perform anyway.  So who’s going to modify their schedule or do anything differently based on what these extended models show, when they’re often not correct, and even if they are correct, the information, by necessity, is so vague that it’s not useful for planning anything anyway?

I certainly agree with your comment though, and I think the combination of now being far enough along into the mid-month period and the apparent residency time of the upcoming pattern speaks to some potential.  We look like we’re entering a pattern beyond Saturday where just about every system has a good shot of bringing some snow to the NNE mountains - even if the systems are not 100% snow (which is essentially the situation all winter long anyway).  Dr. Postel this morning on TWC did say that it looks like the upcoming pattern could persist for a couple of weeks, which would get well into the back half of November.

Unfortunately, the forecast doesn’t tell me which specific days to plan to ski yet, but perhaps we’re getting to the point where the mountain snowpack will start to build at elevation.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

The event on Sunday is definitely looking more interesting. 

I feel like it may be one of those 2k or higher deals, but you may flip to snow at the end?

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like it may be one of those 2k or higher deals, but you may flip to snow at the end?

I’m more interested in the ski places at this point. I’m pretty sure I will even see a little snow down here though. I tend to do well in these marginal events if the rates are good. 

[powderfreak]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like it may be one of those 2k or higher deals, but you may flip to snow at the end?

That's what I've got... I think the true accumulation stays above 2,000ft but flipping to snow at the end down to 1,000ft or even mangled flakes below that.  The bulk of the precip seems to be with a freezing level around 925mb.  Fast moving, so I like 2-4" above 2,000ft or even a above 2,500ft.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

That's what I've got... I think the true accumulation stays above 2,000ft but flipping to snow at the end down to 1,000ft or even mangled flakes below that.  The bulk of the precip seems to be with a freezing level around 925mb.

Yeah. I mean if you look at the thicknesses you think snow, but it's cold aloft with WAA ahead of it around 850 and below. Will take a little time below 2K. 

[PhineasC]

Looks like the GYX disco is going with 1500' and up for accums from the Sunday deal. I am hoping for a burst of heavy rates to lay down a nice coating of white. That would be a win.

[powderfreak]

27 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Looks like the GYX disco is going with 1500' and up for accums from the Sunday deal. I am hoping for a burst of heavy rates to lay down a nice coating of white. That would be a win.

Yeah that sounds about right.  I think 1500ft can whiten up at the tail end.  Coating to 2” seems reasonable for that elevation… 1-2” if it flips early, coating if it’s the tail end.

It’s really only like a 3-5 hour burst as it moves through.  I think it’ll immediately wet-bulb the snow level down to like 2500ft when precip starts but holds there for a while.  Then towards the end of the steady precip we see the snow levels drop down to even 1,000ft… but wet ground and waning precip keeps accumulations 1500ft or higher.

The timing is perfect though over your way Phin.  The best precip rates look to coincide with the coldest diurnal time of day (early Sunday morning)… so that time of day can sometimes surprise with snowfall levels lower than anticipated.

These marginal events can also favor west slopes locally (the other side of Mansfield) and over towards Alex…as a marginal sounding can get a little upslope cooling assist when the low level winds go NW.  Even that extra few tenths or half a degree Celsius of cooling from forced ascent can be the difference of many hundred feet of snow levels.

[dryslot]

It will come down to timing on the changeover towards Phinn, The more dynamic the coastal low ends up the sooner the cold air gets pulled SE into the lower elevations to changeover.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It will come down to timing on the changeover towards Phinn, The more dynamic the coastal low ends up the sooner the cold air gets pulled SE to changeover.

Yeah once the surface flow can tug NW.  There’s southerly flow ahead of it with a warm nose creeping north at the start.  If that low can get its act together might even see a quasi-CCB try to briefly form.