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NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022


PhineasC
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43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s awesome. Glad you guys got it good.

Phin's right, this is the type of real bread and butter... where the mountains get 5-7" out of some WAA and an arctic FROPA.  These events are a dime a dozen it seems in the "big" winters... and you expect them after they start working out.  It is weird how some winter's just have a personality... this winter this is a nice surprise.

Also great to see how many 1/4 or even M1/4 ASOS observations came with this squall.  The NWS Squall warnings looked very good this afternoon... everyone was like "why's my phone blowing up?  Oh, wait this is a short duration white hurricane.  Ok this is why they are warning it."

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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Anxiously awaiting your score sheet. 

Squall Report Card

  • Wind
    A-, acceptable. Not as constant as the last one, two main surges. Only measured 35mph, but going by loudness and considering I actually heard some branch snaps in the pines, I'm estimating 45mph. 
     
  • Snow
    A+.  Came in as a solid wall. Visibility low enough to fully block even the most obnoxious marina lights across the water. 
     
  • Duration
    B. Intense portion lasted for >3 radar frames. Nice gradual slowdown, still snowing decently now. 
     
  • Temperature Response
    Sudden drop from 30 to 24.
     
  • Comments
    I dragged my dad outside to enjoy it with me like I used to do when I was a kid. He did not, in fact, enjoy it.
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16 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

All the phones blew up around here confusing people.  I'm not sure if that is a good idea or not.  It scares people half to death.  Why does a snow squall warning create a phone warning but a severe thunderstorm warning does not?  Just asking?

Because we never end up actually getting severe thunderstorms? (Sorry Wiz :()

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All the phones blew up around here confusing people.  I'm not sure if that is a good idea or not.  It scares people half to death.  Why does a snow squall warning create a phone warning but a severe thunderstorm warning does not?  Just asking?
I thought it was a nuclear launch alert, lol

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Vicious Squalls.   The deer were grazing as the squall hit.  As you know my cam faces south.  I made a quick video clip.  Just watch the first part. The deer at first just looked around and then bolted for the woods.

https://video.nest.com/clip/a15fa36d102c4e7083045981300da51b.mp4

That is awesome.  The dark cloud and then bam. 

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Here is another video of the snow squall.  My friends at 1500 feet about a mile north of me let me put one of my Nest Cams at their house.  This is also a fun video to watch.  It is 5 minutes long so fast forward if you like.  The squall comes in bam!  It was around 6pm so it was getting dark but it is still fun to watch

https://video.nest.com/clip/6c435c561f0040c3b9b00779fb329167.mp4

 

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17" of snowfall the past few days and the Mansfield Stake has increased depth 16" during that time... that's 17" of fluff but in 24 hour readings.  If measuring every 6-12 hours this certainly would've been a higher snowfall the past few days.  From near all-time low of 32" to 48", moving back into "solidly below normal but if we repeat the last 3 days we will be at normal snow depth" status.  It just goes to show how hard it is to stay down near the bottom.

It is fluffy snow but it still increased depth by 16" despite putting fluff on top of fluff.  The first event settled out a bit and then this one ended up on top.  In Colorado they live off of this stuff... it just never rains or melts so you can make a living out of cold fluffy powder.

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274298597_10104743529435850_389903750374

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14 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

All the phones blew up around here confusing people.  I'm not sure if that is a good idea or not.  It scares people half to death.  Why does a snow squall warning create a phone warning but a severe thunderstorm warning does not?  Just asking?

Same in Maine.  We had to pause during choir rehearsal and shut off phones, and my wife scrambled to have flashlights at the ready.  Pretty low-key result at our place, 0.2" and modest gusts.  Squalls tend to die in our valley location.

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35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think the next two events have some sneaky potential.  These are the true bread and butter events that this winter has been missing.

GFS and CMC are snowy for this week even just taken verbatim. Add in some ratio help and it could be a sneaky foot for the favored areas. 

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

BTV has a map out for tomorrow

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

 

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think the next two events have some sneaky potential.  These are the true bread and butter events that this winter has been missing.

I agree.  It’s not as if we haven’t had any systems (yesterday’s was actually the 46th accumulating storm of the season here at our site), but it just doesn’t seem like we’ve had many of those solid clippers.  Even down in the valley at our site the BTV NWS point forecast suggests 2-5” of snow.  It’s been a while since we’ve seen that from a clipper.

Your “true bread and butter” comment is perfect, because there are the types of systems that typically deliver throughout the season for us.  This season’s apparent dearth of specifically these systems may be why there’s that discrepancy between the valleys and mountains with respect to deviation from mean seasonal snowfall thus far.  Certainly yesterday’s system was another great example, where we picked up just a couple inches in the valleys, but you reported several on Mansfield.  Systems like that have to be a factor in how the mountains get to their 300+ inches a season vs. the valleys.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I think the next two events have some sneaky potential.  These are the true bread and butter events that this winter has been missing.

From Josh Fox a few weeks ago:  "Judah Cohen had some interesting thoughts in his blog a few weeks ago about what might happen to the Alberta Clipper in a climate changed world. I don't want to get into the weeds on that topic now but it is important to note how glaringly impotent the clipper has been in terms of producing snowfall in Vermont this winter."

I tried to look into what exactly Dr. Cohen had said but was unable to locate the blog post he wrote about the topic at length, so I don't know exactly what factors he was referencing for the "decline of the clipper". Regardless, it is interesting that people are looking into the fundamentals behind what drives the frequency of these events. Is this an overreaction to this winter's lack of potent clipper events? Or is this a trend that has been witnessed over longer timescales? (again, I wish I could find exactly what Dr. Cohen was referencing. If anyone knows where this was posted, I would certainly appreciate the link). Certainly an interesting topic though.

Anyways, definitely encouraging to see these events survive the mid-range and appear set to deliver a wintery week. Definitely what we need for a good run of spring skiing as we progress deeper into March.

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18z EURO looked pretty decent, but 00z HRRR isn't as exciting.

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-total_precip_inch-6330400.thumb.png.c49d6f024fd5fd7be5e1eebca7e3098e.png

Southwest flow standing waves like the NEK in VT.  Rising air over the western Adirondacks, sinking air on the east side of the Dacks into the Champlain Valley and then the Spine is the flow/river hitting more rocks and leads to downstream precipitation in the NEK.  Jay Peak, Eden to Coles Pond and Island Pond.

hrrr-vt-total_snow_10to1-6265600.thumb.png.d314b975918c2a6db72effcf5ec1dc8e.png

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Good luck. I guess if you had to miss a ski season, this wasn’t a bad one. 

It's been a good season for me since I like firm, fast conditions on the groomers. Been pretty subpar if you like natural trails and the woods, IMO. 

The groomers around here are just about perfect for me right now. Very firm but no ice. The natural trails are pretty rough. Not really fun.

The natural trails were really good from the end of January to mid-Feb but then they went bad. Before that they were super thin.

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February stats for my locale:

Avg temp:  19.6   +1.9   The final 5 days ran -10, dragging the month 2.6° closer to average.
Avg. high:  31.1    +1.9   Max was 56 on the crazy 23rd, and it topped the 55 in Feb 2018 for that month's mildest.  
Avg. low:     8.0   +1.9   Two mornings at -18, 6th and 26th.

Precip:  3.72"   +0.62    Had 1.23" on 2/4

Snow:   22.5"    -0.4" but still our snowiest month since Feb 2019.   The 4th had 11.3" and that event totaled 12.4", first 12"+ since March 2018.
Pack:  Peaked at 26" on 2/4 and the average depth of 20.8" was 1.4" AN.

Solid C grade.  The AN temp was balanced by the entertaining rollercoaster changes.
 

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Skied the steep trees in the east basin of Big Jay yesterday. Wow. Even in a lean year like this, that zone still delivered! Absolutely the best powder I have skied all winter. I skinned up from 242 rather than approaching from the Jay Peak tram. If you're looking for a real "adventure" involving steep trail-breaking through thick vegetation, I would suggest repeating my route...but it was truly a battle to the summit lol. Next time I think I'll take the more traditional approach by traversing over from the tram. But hey, a little adventure ski feeds the soul every now and then!!

Looking forward to see what today's system can dish out. I'm feeling good for at least a couple inches in my location.

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49 minutes ago, jculligan said:

Skied the steep trees in the east basin of Big Jay yesterday. Wow. Even in a lean year like this, that zone still delivered! Absolutely the best powder I have skied all winter. I skinned up from 242 rather than approaching from the Jay Peak tram. If you're looking for a real "adventure" involving steep trail-breaking through thick vegetation, I would suggest repeating my route...but it was truly a battle to the summit lol. Next time I think I'll take the more traditional approach by traversing over from the tram. But hey, a little adventure ski feeds the soul every now and then!!

Looking forward to see what today's system can dish out. I'm feeling good for at least a couple inches in my location.

Yeah the conditions are pretty decent for powder all things considered.  These systems have been dropping some fluff in the N.Greens.

First day off in about 10 days after the President's Weekend, so I'm vegging out at home and its been snowing pretty well for the past half hour or so as it moved in like a wall.

WUNIDS_map.gif.d83ee19b04c45592c6b55d44006e5bd1.gif

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