NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[Angus]

really would like to ski saddleback tomorrow but not 100% sold on this thing...

4 hours ago, tamarack said:

A forecasting nightmare for my general area - within 30 miles east or west of here.  The potential for bust, in either direction, is immense.

 

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, Angus said:

really would like to ski saddleback tomorrow but not 100% sold on this thing...

 

It’s going to snow but this could easily end up being a rather lame and quick 4-6. The Greens and parts of NH will get some “fake” snow to pad totals. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

It’s going to snow but this could easily end up being a rather lame and quick 4-6. The Greens and parts of NH will get some “fake” snow to pad totals. 

P&C has 3-7 for Rangeley (plus more overnight), Saddleback base is 600' higher so should do somewhat better.  Temp trend suggests paste in the AM to powder PM.

[wxeyeNH]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

 NH will get some “fake” snow to pad totals. 

I'm going to have to do a lot of padding to catchup to you up there and the SNE crew.  53" on the season is pretty pathetic.  Looks like 2 years in a row I'm going to be below average in snow totals.  

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

It’s going to snow but this could easily end up being a rather lame and quick 4-6. The Greens and parts of NH will get some “fake” snow to pad totals. 

The snow is only fake if you don’t get it…

[mob1]

2 hours ago, Angus said:

really would like to ski saddleback tomorrow but not 100% sold on this thing...

 

Wait, Saddleback is open? I thought they closed years ago, I skied there back in 2012 but I heard they closed for good a few years ago. 

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

I love it when forecasters let their love of snow show 
through…


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
322 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A potent storm system will impact the region tonight through
Saturday night with moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow
expected. Gusty winds are expected Saturday night and Sunday morning
as well which will create areas of blowing snow and possibly some
power outages. Winds will abate Sunday afternoon with a warming
trend expected through next week and temperatures approaching 60
degrees by the end of the week. No significant precipitation events
are expected after the Saturday snowstorm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 319 PM EST Friday...Bottom line up front...Winter Storm
Warnings remain in effect across the entire region for tonight
through the first half of Saturday night with a widespread moderate
to heavy 6-12" of snow expected. Unless you live under a rock,
you`ve likely read about this storm several times over the past few
days. So with that in mind, I`m going to skip a lot of the synoptic
overview and mesoscale details this afternoon and just get down to
brass tax and talk about what`s changed, the expected amounts, and
impacts.

So what`s changed. Synoptically not much. Trends from yesterdays
guidance for a delayed phasing of a northern stream trough and
southern stream energy continued into the 00Z NWP model suite, and
with the 12Z runs everything is basically locked into the slightly
eastward shift we talked about yesterday. But now that we`re into
the wheelhouse of higher resolutions models, we`re able to put some
more detail into the forecast, specifically the QPF which is good
and bad if you`re a snow lover or not. Since I`m a snow lover, I`m
going to say more snow is good, less is bad.

So where are the goods? Eastern Vermont and the northwest slopes of
the Green Mountains continue to be the bullseye for moderate to
heavy snow as low/mid-level frontogenetical forcing will be maximized
here Saturday afternoon within the northwest quadrant of the surface
low bombing out over Cape Cod. This is shown nicely in the SPC HREF
snowfall rates which highlights several hours of 1-2"/hr from about
noon through 4 PM. Additionally, when the flow shifts to the
northwest Saturday evening and overnight, favorable blocking will
allow upslope snow to persist and decrease in density adding on
additional accumulations into Sunday morning. A widespread 8-14" is
expected across this area, with locally up to 20" across the higher
peaks from Appalachian Gap to the Canadian border.

And what about the bad you ask? Well, based on the latest trends
we`ve had to adjust QPF and subsequent snowfall amounts down the St.
Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. For the St. Lawrence, with the
eastward low track and a tighter precipitation gradient it`s only
looking like about a half inch of QPF there for the event, resulting
in snow totals of around 6" to maybe 8" where the terrain begins to
slope upward to the Adirondacks. In the Champlain Valley, a faster
shift to northwesterly flow results in some downsloping and also
lower QPF of about 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch. The greatest downsloping
will occur on the NY side of the valley and in Grand Isle county
where storm total snow will range from 6-8", while 6-10" is more
likely on the VT side.

Finally, the bad for everywhere will be the winds. As snowfall
begins to taper off from west to east Saturday evening gusty winds
will develop as a strong low-level jet materializes over the region
and the atmosphere becomes deeply mixed. Forecast soundings continue
to indicate mean mixed layer winds of 30-40kts resulting in surface
gusts at a minimum of 30 mph and more likely closer to 40 mph for
many locations. Blowing snow will become a big concern for those
traveling Saturday evening through Sunday morning given these
conditions and for a short period late Saturday afternoon into the
evening dare I say near blizzard conditions may be seen with
visibility less than a half mile. Power outages also remain a
concern, especially across the lower Connecticut River Valley where
heavy wet snow will be seen but based on the latest trends of
lighter snow for the latter half of the event, thinking only
isolated outages look more likely now.

[Angus]

 

10 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Wait, Saddleback is open? I thought they closed years ago, I skied there back in 2012 but I heard they closed for good a few years ago. 

2nd or 3rd season opened. purchased by ... community development fund. hearing good things and on my Indy Pass. My prior two visits before they closed, I really enjoyed but like lots of other folks when driving that far, I take a right to SLoaf rather than left to Saddleback.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

The snow is only fake if you don’t get it…

Looks like a good right side up storm.  Start as paste then end with champagne on top.  The best ones for skiers.

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, Angus said:

really would like to ski saddleback tomorrow but not 100% sold on this thing...

 

I’d go.  Looks good there and Saddleback can actually get some NW flow snow of any place in ME.

[PhineasC]

2 hours ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

The snow is only fake if you don’t get it…

That is damn right. 

[J.Spin]

This will probably be the last BTV NWS map update for this upcoming storm (given the name Winter Storm Quinlan), since it’s expected to begin affecting that area tonight.  Winter Storm Warnings cover much of the area now, and the latest Event Total Snowfall map through 1:00 A.M. Sunday shows the latest thoughts from the BTV NWS.  Most of VT is in that 8-12” shading as in the previous couple of maps, with 12-18” along the spine of the Northern/Central Greens, but there’s also a bit of the 18-24” shading that crept back into those highest elevations in the Northern Greens.  The point forecasts at elevation do have some snowfall numbers that correspond roughly to that range, with 15-25” for the Mansfield area and 18-28” for the Jay Peak area.  Our snow forecast here in the valley is in the 8-14” range.  I see that that EMontpelierWhiteout posted the latest BTV NWS forecast discussion, which provides their thinking behind the numbers.

[Froude]

 

6 hours ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

I love it when forecasters let their love of snow show 
through…

Hah yeah that was one of the better AFDs. BTV does great work.

[powderfreak]

7 hours ago, Froude said:

 

Hah yeah that was one of the better AFDs. BTV does great work.

I skinned a run with Lahiff in a November powder day on Mansfield probably like a decade ago... good dude.  The whole crew is awesome.

Good blocked flow this morning, your neighborhood must be doing pretty good early on.

Got about 1.5" at the ski area base so far.  More like 3" up higher.  First part was elevation dependent.

[Patriot21]

Started as rain at 7:45 and flipped to snow by 7:55

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.14” L.E.

 

This morning’s snow core contained 0.11” of liquid, while the rain gauge contained 0.14” of liquid, so it looks like there was 0.03” of front end rain from this system before the snow got going.  I did see some spots of rain late last night before heading off to bed, so that must have persisted during the overnight hours for a time.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.11 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 2.7

Snow Density: 36.7% H2O

Temperature: 33.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

[#NoPoles]

Rain just changed to snow in BW

[wxeyeNH]

33.8/31  Very light rain.   Temp rose 1F past hour

[mreaves]

About an inch so far. Wasn’t doing anything at 5:45. Went back to bed so I’m not sure when it started. 

[powderfreak]

Seeing some meso-band signs streaking SW to NE.  Looks to be nosing over J.Spin.  

[klw]

Flipped to snow at 8:45, flakes the size for daschunds.

[Zeppy]

Just flipped to snow here.  

[J.Spin]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Seeing some meso-band signs streaking SW to NE.  Looks to be nosing over J.Spin.  

I actually just checked in because I saw that on the radar.  Even with those 30 db echoes, it hasn’t been anything too outrageous here on the ground thus far, just moderate snowfall by eye.  There’s a fresh inch on the boards at the moment, and we’ll see what accumulates as it pushes through the area.

[J.Spin]

On these latest frames, that is a neat look for the spine around here from ‘bush/MRG right on up through Bolton toward Stowe.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I actually just checked in because I saw that on the radar.  Even with those 30 db echoes, it hasn’t been anything too outrageous here on the ground thus far, just moderate snowfall by eye.  There’s a fresh inch on the boards at the moment, and we’ll see what accumulates as it pushes through the area.

Yeah snow growth is pretty poor here.  Seems to be precipitating fairly efficiently but no more than 8-10:1 ratios I'd imagine?  Pretty dense at the mountain, which is what is needed.

[J.Spin]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah snow growth is pretty poor here.  Seems to be precipitating fairly efficiently but no more than 8-10:1 ratios I'd imagine?  Pretty dense at the mountain, which is what is needed.

Flake size has been up and down a lot here at our site this morning, going from 1-2 mm such as at observations time and early on, with some periods getting up to the 10-15 mm range.  Right now it’s a mix of sizes that looks to cover roughly the 3-15 mm range.

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm going to have to do a lot of padding to catchup to you up there and the SNE crew.  53" on the season is pretty pathetic.  Looks like 2 years in a row I'm going to be below average in snow totals.  

Probably a 3-peat here, unless something really good happens after the equinox.  Current forecast for this Saturday thing is about 3", which given next week's forecast would leave me about 2 feet shy of average entering spring.
Currently mid 30s with steady light RA, pack hanging tough at 17".

[wxeyeNH]

33.7F  Catpaws

[J.Spin]

16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah snow growth is pretty poor here.  Seems to be precipitating fairly efficiently but no more than 8-10:1 ratios I'd imagine?  Pretty dense at the mountain, which is what is needed.

I did a check on the snow depth difference on the boards in roughly the 9:30 A.M. to 10:00 A.M. block, and it was 0.5”, so I guess the snowfall is around the 1”/hour mark.

The current snowfall is relatively dense as you mentioned, which is especially helpful as we get deeper into spring and the subsurfaces are firmer because they’ve typically gone through freeze/thaw cycles.  That dense start was somewhat lacking in the past few storms as I wrote up previously.  I think it failed set up great bonding to the subsurface, was pushed around quickly, and led to poorer ski surfaces than we otherwise might have seen.  We probably would have needed 2”+ of liquid equivalent to really make a notable difference in that situation:

“The recent clippers from this week were nice, and were potent enough that they made for some great short term conditions while the snow had its loft, but there just wasn’t enough liquid equivalent in there to really set up for lasting improvement in the on piste snow surfaces.  Those systems, and even Winter Storm Oaklee before it, were fairy cold from start to finish.  That meant that there wasn’t any notable dense snow to bond to the underlying subsurface, and the light, dry snow eventually just gets pushed around, bringing you back to whatever hard base was there before.  My snow analysis numbers show that these past four storms (there was also a smaller system with squalls between Oaklee and the two larger clippers) actually put down over an inch of liquid equivalent here in the valley.  But despite there likely being somewhat more liquid equivalent than that in the mountains, it wasn’t going to be enough to hold up to lift-served levels of skier traffic.”

[#NoPoles]

Heavy wet snow in BW