NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[bwt3650]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Who knows, Sugarbush hasn’t even hit 100” yet at the top of the mountain.  Meanwhile BTV isn’t that far from normal snowfall.  It’s interesting you aren’t that far from normal snowfall as upslope has been missing so much this winter but that’s your climo too.

How’s your liquid stats?  It’s felt real dry this winter on the whole to me.  That’s where the mountains suffer.  

 

Sugarbush didn’t run slidebrook this year due to staffing issues, but I wonder if they would have had enough snow to run it for more than a week or so even if they had the staff with those totals so far?  

[MRVexpat]

4 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Sugarbush didn’t run slidebrook this year due to staffing issues, but I wonder if they would have had enough snow to run it for more than a week or so even if they had the staff with those totals so far?  

Mtn ops typically likes a foot of packed down snow on all of the work roads in the Slide Brook basin for snowmobile/snowcat access prior to running that lift. But like you said, I don't think more than a couple of weeks would have been feasible this year. Hopefully inspection can get squared away in the summer and we have even an avg winter next year!

[klw]

Judging by the very heavy traffic on 89 north and the large volume of LED lit cars, the VT ski resorts will be full of White Platers this weekend who left a day early to beat the storm tomorrow.

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Sugarbush didn’t run slidebrook this year due to staffing issues, but I wonder if they would have had enough snow to run it for more than a week or so even if they had the staff with those totals so far?  

It absolutely affected it.  We've had the Toll House area closed since the warm day before the last rainfall and although it's relatively lower elevation 1,300ft - 2,200ft and all natural snowfall (no snowmaking), it's very rare to not be able to operate that in N.VT in mid/late February.  It has a big impact too on those who stay in condos, townhomes, lodging etc down off those runs and there's no way to get folks up except the the road (which at two-lanes is stressed as it is when thousands of people want to go the same direction at the same time).

I think the snowpack made it a very easy decision and they probably weren't *that* stretched for staff.  Without sufficient snow cover to execute a lift evac or get snowcats, snowmobiles, personnel in there... that thing is long.  No one wants to be in a "walking/hiking" situation with paying guests if that lift goes down.  And mechanical freak things happen that stop lifts from running.  A bolt breaks, leading to a sheave listing vertical, causing alignment issues.  Can be fixed pretty easily but the lift may not be able to run again until it's unloaded.  Lift evac happens.  Short handed for a remote lift evac sounds like the absolute last thing anyone wants to do.

If there was even a chance I didn't have enough staff to run a lift like that in low snow, it would sway me to a nope very easily.  Maybe at some point the snowpack is marginal BUT you are staffed strongly, and know you can have a strong response in the event of an issue (the amount of resources you have to throw at a potential problem, the more lenient one might become in operations)... to a point obviously.

 

[powderfreak]

27 minutes ago, klw said:

Judging by the very heavy traffic on 89 north and the large volume of LED lit cars, the VT ski resorts will be full of White Platers this weekend who left a day early to beat the storm tomorrow.

 

A snowstorm coming statewide and for New England ski country as a whole region.... on the Friday, heading into a weekend, during the back half of the President's Weekend holiday week.  This is going to be a monster weekend for the Vermont economy.  New Hampshire and Maine too of course.  Skiing is popular this season, lack of good snow or snowfall also causes everyone to want to ski on the same days.  In this case, many have weekend lodging and are just heading up early to fill the few vacancies left this week.  I've always felt that lower snowfall winters lead to higher buzz about each specific snowfall... but when it's snowing regularly, with consistent light snows and a few bigger ones, the hype/buzz/visitation gets diluted a bit everywhere.  Folks assume there will just be another one in a few days or within the week.

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

A snowstorm coming statewide and for New England ski country as a whole region.... on the Friday, heading into a weekend, during the back half of the President's Weekend holiday week.  This is going to be a monster weekend for the Vermont economy.

I’m going to be in your area a couple of times next week. Taiga, a company that’s building electric snowmobiles is having a press event in Smugglers Notch and I’m going to be helping out. And yes I had to check to make sure it was in the notch and not the ski area lol. 

[J.Spin]

On 2/23/2022 at 8:07 PM, powderfreak said:

There is some strong lift in the 500-600mb range and sometimes we do get those fluffy mid-level bands well north that drop 20:1 ratio snows.  It just seems like widespread 8-12” on the maps for this area over to you seems optimistic.

I rarely disagree with the NWS but here I sell a middle ground of 10”.  I like 4-8” and even that is assuming good ratios as all non-NAM models are like 0.30-0.50” from me to your area.  If that’s 8-10:1 sand instead of fluff, it’s a bust.

 

11 hours ago, PhineasC said:

12z HRRR has 0.65" liquid here. That's healthy. Decent ratios can easily turn that into 8-10.

A quick look at liquid for the latest runs shows most of the models having our area in the 0.50” – 0.75” L.E. bracket, with some of the mesoscale models getting us into the 0.75” – 1.00” bracket, and there are a couple models with the area in the 0.4” – 0.5” L.E. bracket.  The CMC was one of those with that lower L.E., but it’s more recently come up to match the other models in that next bracket.  We’re a bit south of PF, but our point forecast has ~0.6” of L.E. here at our site, and that seems very consistent with the modeling.  That would be 6” at a 1:10 ratio, or 12” at a 1:20 ratio.

Our point snowfall forecast sums to 8-12” through Friday night, which may be a bit on the higher side, but they do mention those mid to upper level vortices that I’ve seen PF talking about having the potential to move over the area:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

635 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…potent embedded 700 to 500mb vort, which wl move directly acrs our cwa btwn 15z-21z Friday, resulting in a period of moderate to heavy snowfall. HREF shows 1 to 2 inch per hour rates with pockets of up to 2.5 inches per hour over the dacks around 18z Friday, which looks reasonable given the idea of strong dynamics and deep moisture within the DGZ. Fluff factor could result in some areas overachieving, but limiting factor wl be extremely quick movement of system, with favorable dynamics/lift and moisture only lasting for 3 to 6 hours from west to east acrs our fa.

 

Our point forecast does have that “heavy snow” listed for the Friday period, so there’s enough confidence to get that put in there.  And hey, it’s the Northern Greens, so there’s always the potential for a little extra oomph if things line up to let the orographics help with a touch of extra lift.

And as PF said, if dendritic growth isn’t great and it’s tiny flakes, the accumulations will be on the lower side.  But who really cares about the exact accumulations numbers aside from the record keeping aspect, it’s the L.E. that matters around here; that’s what’s going to make the difference on the slopes.  The current snowpack needs a major resurfacing; that’s all there is to it, so that means getting down as much L.E. as possible.  Dense snow might in fact be better than champagne in terms of the resurfacing anyway.

Modeling suggests that there are more potential shots of snow over the next week as well, so perhaps we’ll do a little catching up on seasonal snowfall with respect to average.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

A quick look at liquid for the latest runs shows most of the models having our area in the 0.50” – 0.75” L.E. bracket, with some of the mesoscale models getting us into the 0.75” – 1.00” bracket, and there are a couple models with the area in the 0.4” – 0.5” L.E. bracket.  The CMC was one of those with that lower L.E., but it’s more recently come up to match the other models in that next bracket.  We’re a bit south of PF, but our point forecast has ~0.6” of L.E. here at our site, and that seems very consistent with the modeling.  That would be 6” at a 1:10 ratio, or 12” at a 1:20 ratio.

Our point snowfall forecast sums to 8-12” through Friday night, which may be a bit on the higher side, but they do mention those mid to upper level vortices that I’ve seen PF talking about having the potential to move over the area:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

635 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…potent embedded 700 to 500mb vort, which wl move directly acrs our cwa btwn 15z-21z Friday, resulting in a period of moderate to heavy snowfall. HREF shows 1 to 2 inch per hour rates with pockets of up to 2.5 inches per hour over the dacks around 18z Friday, which looks reasonable given the idea of strong dynamics and deep moisture within the DGZ. Fluff factor could result in some areas overachieving, but limiting factor wl be extremely quick movement of system, with favorable dynamics/lift and moisture only lasting for 3 to 6 hours from west to east acrs our fa.

Our point forecast does have that “heavy snow” listed for the Friday period, so there’s enough confidence to get that put in there.  And hey, it’s the Northern Greens, so there’s always the potential for a little extra oomph if things line up to let the orographics help with a touch of extra lift.

And as PF said, if dendritic growth isn’t great and it’s tiny flakes, the accumulations will be on the lower side.  But who really cares about the exact accumulations numbers aside from the record keeping aspect, it’s the L.E. that matters around here; that’s what’s going to make the difference on the slopes.  The current snowpack needs a major resurfacing; that’s all there is to it, so that means getting down as much L.E. as possible.  Dense snow might in fact be better than champagne in terms of the resurfacing anyway.

Modeling suggests that are more potential shots of snow over the next week as well, so perhaps we’ll do a little catching up on seasonal snowfall with respect to average.

I agree... QPF has been bouncing around but fairly consistent in a widespread 0.50"/half inch of water, with some spots possibly seeing 0.75-1.00" south of here (Monroe Skyline to Killington?).  The lower amounts of 0.30-0.50" are off-set by the higher numbers so I do like a good half inch of water.  Highest snowfall IMO will be associated with mid-level banding and dendritic snow growth.  Sand, or denser snowflakes could lead to just 3-4" of snow (8:1) north of I89, but if flake size/loft is decent (12-20:1) that same amount could be 6-10".

[jculligan]

9 degrees and 1.5" down so far. Finally broke 60" on the season and we should come within striking distance of last year's seasonal total today. My course with the Mount Washington Backcountry Ski Festival was called off due to the low tide conditions right now, so I'll be lapping groomers instead. Hard to call that a bad day.

[mreaves]

2" and 10°  BTV has been pretty steadfast with their accumulation predictions for my area all along, right around 10"

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.8” Snow/0.17” L.E.

 

Snow was quite heavy at observations time this morning; certainly in the 1”/hour range or so, but it hasn’t been that way the whole time and there have been periods with less intensity as well.  Snow density came in just a bit under the standard 10% mark – 9.4% H2O, or 10.6 to 1 in terms of ratio.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.17 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.6

Snow Density: 9.4% H2O

Temperature: 13.6 F

Sky: Heavy Snow (3-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

[PhineasC]

About 2"

[J.Spin]

7 minutes ago, mreaves said:

2" and 10°  BTV has been pretty steadfast with their accumulation predictions for my area all along, right around 10"

As noted in my observations, the morning ratio here was 10.6 to 1, so assuming L.E. of ~0.6”, staying at that ratio would provide something in the 6-7” range for snow accumulations around here.  Accumulations in the 10” range will require more moisture (some models have that) or higher ratios, but putting down ~0.6” of L.E. into the snowpack in the form of snow is great, regardless of how it actually stacks up.

In terms of the latest BTV NWS maps, it’s wall-to-wall Winter Storm Warnings on the advisories map, and interestingly, the Event Total Snowfall Map I get from the site actually has slightly different numbers than the one you posted.  I’m not sure what causes that difference.

[J.Spin]

Just now, J.Spin said:

In terms of the latest BTV NWS maps, it’s wall-to-wall Winter Storm Warnings on the advisories map, and interestingly, the Event Total Snowfall Map I get from the site actually has slightly different numbers than the one you posted.  I’m not sure what causes that difference.

Oh, I see it now that I’ve checked out the rest of the map details – I saw that it was the same time of issuance, but they’ve modified the period that is covered on the map.

[J.Spin]

17 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Who knows, Sugarbush hasn’t even hit 100” yet at the top of the mountain.  Meanwhile BTV isn’t that far from normal snowfall.  It’s interesting you aren’t that far from normal snowfall as upslope has been missing so much this winter but that’s your climo too.

How’s your liquid stats?  It’s felt real dry this winter on the whole to me.  That’s where the mountains suffer.  

October through February for our site averages 20.23” of liquid, and this season we’ve seen 20.14” of total liquid with a few days of February to go.  Looking at the individual months, December and January were drier than average, so if that liquid trend has been the same for the mountains, perhaps it’s part of the issue.  Our December and January snowfall were both below average here, so perhaps that was part of the issue for the mountains, but so far, it’s not been enough to get us beyond 1 S.D. from our mean cumulative season snowfall here in the valley.

 

October: 5.57” vs. 5.31” mean

November: 5.59” vs. 3.94” mean

December: 3.28” vs 4.46” mean

January: 1.95” vs. 3.30” mean

February: 3.75” vs. 3.23” mean

 

February is only to date, so that’s going to go up with the contribution from the current system.

[backedgeapproaching]

Total downslope disaster here...sun is literally almost peaking through--gusting to 40mph.  Barely snowing ATTM.   

Did snow pretty well for 3 hours of so, but right now it's more beech tree leaves blowing around..lol. 

[jculligan]

8F and 2.4" down so far.

[backedgeapproaching]

Jesus--- 58mph gust--highest I have recorded.   WTF, need high wind warning, not winter storm.

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Jesus--- 58mph gust--highest I have recorded.   WTF, need high wind warning, not winter storm.

Wow, zero wind here

[PhineasC]

4” down. 

[PhineasC]

18 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Jesus--- 58mph gust--highest I have recorded.   WTF, need high wind warning, not winter storm.

Sounds like what happens here on south winds. 

[backedgeapproaching]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Wow, zero wind here

This is probably extremely localized, like tied into the immediate western slopes, I bet a mile or so east into the actual town of Manchester is not nearly as windy.  

Even the weeniest Meso wind model, which from my experience is the WRF ARW2, was showing some gusts along the Spine, but not upper 50s. 

 

[klw]

Interesting update from BTV discussion:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 904 AM EST Friday...Interesting morning acrs our fa as
widespread moderate to localized heavy snow continues acrs most
of our cwa. Did get a report from NWS employee in Williston of
some sleet mixing with the snow and sure enough radar shows 35
to 40 dbz pocket in this area, not sure why as soundings are -8C
or colder at all levels. Maybe combination of unsaturated DGZ
and weak instability btwn 15kft and 20kft.

Watching water vapor is pretty neat this morning, as mid lvl
dry slot is quickly pushing into central/northern NY ahead of
potent 5-7h short wave trof over the central Great Lakes. Within
this dry slot KBUF sounding is indicating some steepening lapse
rates within the 700 to 500mb layer, which is closely tied
within the favorable snow growth region. So anticipating as
better dynamics arrive btwn 15z-21z today, a period of moderate
snowfall with embedded heavy snowfall still looks very
reasonable from a SLK to BTV to MVL line. Snowfall rates of 1 to
2 inches per hour with localized up to 3 inches is possible,
given the convective potential per soundings. Just noted a cloud
to ground lighting strike btwn Massena and Ottawa. Heaviest
snowfall should arrive in the btwn area btwn 16z-18z, before
shifting east. Expect very poor visibilities and hazardous
driving conditions. The limiting factor to higher snowfall
amounts wl be quick movement of system and moisture decreasing
aft 21z. Did tweak snow ratios a bit this morning based on obs,
which did make some minor adjustments to the snowfall. Still
anticipating a widespread 6 to 12 inches. Snow ends by 00z this
evening acrs most of the fa.

 

[backedgeapproaching]

Damn...kudos ALY--I sent them a quick note about the wind and they had this out like 3 minutes later:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

ISSUED: 9:35 AM FEB. 25, 2022 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

...Period of Strong Gusty Winds through 11 AM...

A brief period of strong east to southeast winds, 15 to 25 mph,
with gusts of 40 to 50 mph, will be possible through 11 AM across
portions of the central and northern Taconics, southern Greens,
Berkshires, and western Mohawk Valley.

These strong winds, combined with the snow on the ground, will
produce areas of blowing and drifting snow as well.

Motorists in these areas should be prepared to encounter areas of
reduced visibilities due to the strong winds and areas of blowing
and drifting snow.

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Great memory and interesting similarity as places in south Jersey are well above average this year while up at Jay and Stowe, struggling to keep out of all time bad territory.  That can’t be a coincidence.

Only takes 1-2 decent events to push SNJ above average, as most places there run 20" or less over the long term.  NNJ away from Gotham's UHI average 40 or more.  (And had 90-100+ in 60-61)

1.5" here with moderate SN.  Visibility ~1/4 mile but flakes are falling so slowly that accum is less than the view would suggest.  Temp 8° with OK dendrites but high ratios.  Haven't taken a core - too little snow for a decent sample - but the slow-falling flakes might be 25:1 in the air, 20:1 after landing and 15:1 after more flakes land atop.  

[jculligan]

3" down so far. Looks like we're entering a bit of a lull now, so hopefully the convective snowfall referenced by BTV pans out this afternoon. Looking at the meso models, I think that would potentially work its way into my area after 1pm. I'm feeling an underachiever but we'll see...QPF doesn't totally shut off until this evening so we've got a ways to go.

[powderfreak]

3-4” up here?  Police had to close down Harlow Hill to the resort for a time this morning due to snow.

This video is wild of this truck making it up the hill…

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CaZ2JF4lDJb/?utm_medium=copy_link

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Total downslope disaster here...sun is literally almost peaking through--gusting to 40mph.  Barely snowing ATTM.   

There might be a bit of that going on up north here as well.  I left home with decent snowfall, and that lasted westward through to about Bolton, then it really tapered down to lighter snow as I passed through the western slopes.  Accumulation in that area were also somewhat lower, with what looked like an inch or so.  Then as I continued westward toward the Champlain Valley, snowfall intensity was back up, and accumulations seemed to be back up in that 4” range.  I did pass through some louder snow on I-89 in Williston – it was never sleet by the sounds I heard, it made the sound of graupel, so I just figured there was some variations going on at various levels in the atmosphere.

[mreaves]

5.5" and 15°.  Winter has returned

[Hitman]

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It absolutely affected it.  We've had the Toll House area closed since the warm day before the last rainfall and although it's relatively lower elevation 1,300ft - 2,200ft and all natural snowfall (no snowmaking), it's very rare to not be able to operate that in N.VT in mid/late February.  It has a big impact too on those who stay in condos, townhomes, lodging etc down off those runs and there's no way to get folks up except the the road (which at two-lanes is stressed as it is when thousands of people want to go the same direction at the same time).

I think the snowpack made it a very easy decision and they probably weren't *that* stretched for staff.  Without sufficient snow cover to execute a lift evac or get snowcats, snowmobiles, personnel in there... that thing is long.  No one wants to be in a "walking/hiking" situation with paying guests if that lift goes down.  And mechanical freak things happen that stop lifts from running.  A bolt breaks, leading to a sheave listing vertical, causing alignment issues.  Can be fixed pretty easily but the lift may not be able to run again until it's unloaded.  Lift evac happens.  Short handed for a remote lift evac sounds like the absolute last thing anyone wants to do.

If there was even a chance I didn't have enough staff to run a lift like that in low snow, it would sway me to a nope very easily.  Maybe at some point the snowpack is marginal BUT you are staffed strongly, and know you can have a strong response in the event of an issue (the amount of resources you have to throw at a potential problem, the more lenient one might become in operations)... to a point obviously.

 

It is the staffing issue why they arent running the slidebrook lift.  They are down lift mechanics and that lift has 40 towers that have to be inspected daily whenever its running.  That being said, even if they had the staff, the limited snowpack would have impacted when it could be run.