NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[PhineasC]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

And flatter terrain so it's not getting scraped off... need mellow terrain, tons of grooming, and light crowds right now.

We are delaying opening until 10am tomorrow.  I just updated Stowe.com/Snow with our plans for the morning.  No sugarcoating there, ha.

This is when BW can really shine. They will get the groomed trails into decent shape.

[tamarack]

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

02/03 was wall to wall in NNE 

For cold, yes, with 3 months between a mini-Grinch on Dec 20-21 until the warm rain at the equinox.  However, we had only 76% of avg snow, which disqualifies it in my mind.  Suppression city, with only the mid-Nov and early Jan events showing up here in good form.

[CoastalWx]

19 hours ago, J.Spin said:

As Alex mentioned above, people often make a bigger deal out of these events than is warranted.  Because NNE is so wintry, there may be this perception that it’s sub-freezing with snow as the only type of precipitation from November through April, but of course we know that’s not actually the case.

I’ll hear people use this term “cutter” seemingly for any system that appears to bring a storm’s warm sector… I guess to a specific location they’re concerned about or something?  But it sounds like some sort of nonsensical term a weenie made up for dramatic effect.

There are occasional storms that hit just right and have a dramatic effect on the snowpack, but that’s often in situations where the snowpack isn’t all that robust, or it’s some extended warm spell that goes on for days.  Even way down here in the valley bottom at our site, the snowpack is quite hefty right now, with multiple inches of liquid equivalent as the NOHRSC plot shows below.  And as PF’s recent analyses indicate, there’s three times that amount of liquid in the snowpack at elevation.

You can see in the NOHRSC modeling for our site in the plot below that this upcoming system really isn’t expected to have a dramatic effect on the snowpack.  The snowpack, especially the mountains, could probably handle more of these if that’s what happened to transpire, but of course it’s far better for the snowpack and snow sports overall if more of the systems come as snow, or at least mostly frozen.  The snowpack can only hold so much water and will eventually get “ripe” as PF mentioned.

They are called “cutters” because the storms that bring you guys a warm sector typically “cut” through the Great Lakes, particularly eastern lakes. Hence the nickname. That name has been around for many years. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

They are called “cutters” because the storms that bring you guys a warm sector typically “cut” through the Great Lakes, particularly eastern lakes. Hence the nickname. That name has been around for many years. 

Yeah any warm sector event is a cutter.  We pour rain.  It's been mid-40s at both home and work since I woke up at 4:30am and got to work at 5am (yes, it's only 30 minutes from the time my alarm goes off, to the time I'm logging on at the office up the road, ha).  There's going to be a lot of frozen water after the flash freeze in the early AM hours after midnight.  I think the skiing is wrecked on the whole until it snows again.  Creek beds blown out, harder to move laterally on skis in the woods.  Trail undersurface will be extremely firm, if not outright ice.  We live for adversity though, it is New England.

[J.Spin]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They are called “cutters” because the storms that bring you guys a warm sector typically “cut” through the Great Lakes, particularly eastern lakes. Hence the nickname. That name has been around for many years. 

Thanks, that’s helpful, and I think I’ve heard the origin in passing before (such as the full expression “Great Lakes Cutter”), but the Great Lakes part is almost always left out, so just seeing “cutter” 99% of the time, the relevance of the term seems to get lost.  But why are we so special?  A storm that puts Buffalo, or Cleveland, or Chicago right in the meat of the warm sector would typically “cut” through a different part of the lakes, and if a storm passes far enough to the west, it starts to become irrelevant here.  And, people have been referring to this current storm as a “cutter” for a week or two, and the surface low isn’t even moving through the Great Lakes – it’s passing east of all the lakes and right through New England.  The way people use the term, one gets the feeling that it’s just applied to any storm in which the warm sector hits their area of interest, so maybe there’s some inconsistency in use that adds to the confusion.

[powderfreak]

It is raining with authority here just to the north of the 89 symbol in the center of the radar.  Not ideal right before the busy President's Day week/end.  Radar beam is over-shooting it in E.VT.

[DavisStraight]

17 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Thanks, that’s helpful, and I think I’ve heard the origin in passing before (such as the full expression “Great Lakes Cutter”), but the Great Lakes part is almost always left out, so just seeing “cutter” 99% of the time, the relevance of the term seems to get lost.  But why are we so special?  A storm that puts Buffalo, or Cleveland, or Chicago right in the meat of the warm sector would typically “cut” through a different part of the lakes, and if a storm passes far enough to the west, it starts to become irrelevant here.  And, people have been referring to this current storm as a “cutter” for a week or two, and the surface low isn’t even moving through the Great Lakes – it’s passing east of all the lakes and right through New England.  The way people use the term, one gets the feeling that it’s just applied to any storm in which the warm sector hits their area of interest, so maybe there’s some inconsistency in use that adds to the confusion.

I thought it meant any low that cut to our west, whether through the Great Lakes, the St Lawrence or even over northern NE.

[PhineasC]

16 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I thought it meant any low that cut to our west, whether through the Great Lakes, the St Lawrence or even over northern NE.

That's my definition. It cuts to my west and rains on me. 

I call that a cutter.

Regardless of the definition, it sucks.

50/44

Very little rain so far.

[J.Spin]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

I thought it meant any low that cut to our west, whether through the Great Lakes, the St Lawrence or even over northern NE.

That seems to be the way a lot of people use it, but the term just doesn’t make sense that way – if the storm “cuts” to the east of their area, nobody calls it a “cutter”.  If a storm “cuts” through the central Great Lakes, it’s east of some places, like Chicago, but west of a place like Buffalo – so the same storm would be a “cutter” for Buffalo, but not for Chicago.  A basis as Coastal indicated, with the term stemming from a fixed geographical area is the most logical, in that it’s based on a storm having a surface low track that “cuts” through the Great Lakes.

[bristolri_wx]

21 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

That seems to be the way a lot of people use it, but the term just doesn’t make sense that way – if the storm “cuts” to the east of their area, nobody calls it a “cutter”.  If a storm “cuts” through the central Great Lakes, it’s east of some places, like Chicago, but west of a place like Buffalo – so the same storm would be a “cutter” for Buffalo, but not for Chicago.  A basis as Coastal indicated, with the term stemming from a fixed geographical area is the most logical, in that it’s based on a storm having a surface low track that “cuts” through the Great Lakes.

https://www.kxly.com/colorado-hooker-pineapple-express-and-other-winter-storm-names/

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

That seems to be the way a lot of people use it, but the term just doesn’t make sense that way – if the storm “cuts” to the east of their area, nobody calls it a “cutter”.  If a storm “cuts” through the central Great Lakes, it’s east of some places, like Chicago, but west of a place like Buffalo – so the same storm would be a “cutter” for Buffalo, but not for Chicago.  A basis as Coastal indicated, with the term stemming from a fixed geographical area is the most logical, in that it’s based on a storm having a surface low track that “cuts” through the Great Lakes.

We make stuff up here to suit our needs, someone here made up SWFE

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah any warm sector event is a cutter.  We pour rain.  It's been mid-40s at both home and work since I woke up at 4:30am and got to work at 5am (yes, it's only 30 minutes from the time my alarm goes off, to the time I'm logging on at the office up the road, ha).  There's going to be a lot of frozen water after the flash freeze in the early AM hours after midnight.  I think the skiing is wrecked on the whole until it snows again.  Creek beds blown out, harder to move laterally on skis in the woods.  Trail undersurface will be extremely firm, if not outright ice.  We live for adversity though, it is New England.

Timing blows too. figures. Hopefully some upslope this weekend.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

That seems to be the way a lot of people use it, but the term just doesn’t make sense that way – if the storm “cuts” to the east of their area, nobody calls it a “cutter”.  If a storm “cuts” through the central Great Lakes, it’s east of some places, like Chicago, but west of a place like Buffalo – so the same storm would be a “cutter” for Buffalo, but not for Chicago.  A basis as Coastal indicated, with the term stemming from a fixed geographical area is the most logical, in that it’s based on a storm having a surface low track that “cuts” through the Great Lakes.

People tend to use the term broadly. Whether it goes across ORD or BTV, many will call it a cutter. It’s definitely not a term you’ll find in the AMS glossary LOL. 
 

 

[powderfreak]

It is pouring sleet and freezing rain sideways in strong winds.  This is about as nasty a weather condition as it gets up here this morning.  All water is in the process of turning into a skating rink.

Temps just plummeted... 40s to 20F style.

[alex]

Just turned to sleet here. About a foot of snow left. Pack lives

[bwt3650]

We’ve been snow for a couple hours.  Maybe an inch out there.  At least it’s white again.

[jculligan]

15 minutes ago, alex said:

Just turned to sleet here. About a foot of snow left. Pack lives

I'll be returning to Jackson early this evening. There was two feet OTG when I left Wednesday evening. I don't think CAD was much of a factor in this event, so I'm assuming our pack took a healthy hit. I'm hoping there's a foot left at my place as well.

Still planning to head to Stowe on Monday, so I'm hoping for some Green Mountain magic out of tomorrow's clipper. Even if it's just a couple inches, it has to do something to freshen the snow surface...

[alex]

Went to snow quickly, now mod/heavy snow

[wxeyeNH]

8 minutes ago, alex said:

Went to snow quickly, now mod/heavy snow

Alex, get sleet up real quick or you will have a sheet of ice forever

[backedgeapproaching]

Snowpack wasn't massive to start with here after missing the last few events, but its only down from 11.5" to 8".  Almost no wind for most of the event and temps were 39-42F for most of the rain portion on my Davis.  It did pop up to low 50s over night and get breezy looks like for a few hours before FROPA.

20sF now and some light snow falling. 

 

[wxeyeNH]

7am  50.3F      8am    34.1

30% grass on my south exposed fields.  Near 100% elsewhere

[alex]

49 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Alex, get sleet up real quick or you will have a sheet of ice forever

It’s all already snow covered, ice is not much of a problem. The snow pretty much absorbed the water and gives you decent traction 

[PhineasC]

Storm was really nasty here. Lost a ton of depth and have bare spots on south facing aspects that had been previously wind-scoured. I estimate 6-8” average pack remaining. This was almost as bad as the grinch here. I was 60/50 for temps during the rain on big SW winds. Just brutal. 

[jculligan]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Storm was really nasty here. Lost a ton of depth and have bare spots on south facing aspects that had been previously wind-scoured. I estimate 6-8” average pack remaining. This was almost as bad as the grinch here. I was 60/50 for temps during the rain on big SW winds. Just brutal. 

Makes me afraid to see what Black Mountain looks like today. It took until last week, but they finally had almost 100% of their terrain open...but they have wide open south-facing slopes which I'm assuming took a huge hit with this event. As they fight the increasing sun angle with each passing day, I don't know that they'll be able to bounce back to the trail count prior to this event.

[alex]

Those chairs were up to the middle of the rest just above the medallion before this nasty spell. Definitely some big losses!

[jculligan]

In other news, looks like a great setup for squalls tomorrow afternoon/evening. 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/1.18” L.E.

 

At some point the precipitation changed fully over to snow last night because it was snowing this morning at observations time, with 0.9 inches down on the boards.  The name given to this system is Winter Storm Miles, and it’s producing at least a bit of backside snow.  We’ve had some solid periods of upslope flakes even down here in the valley, and the Bolton Valley Main Base Live Cam at ~2,150’ shows some heavy snowfall.  The local radar indicates there’s still a bit of moisture upstream as well.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.17 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 5.3

Snow Density: 18.9% H2O

Temperature: 21.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

[wxeyeNH]

59 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Storm was really nasty here. Lost a ton of depth and have bare spots on south facing aspects that had been previously wind-scoured. I estimate 6-8” average pack remaining. This was almost as bad as the grinch here. I was 60/50 for temps during the rain on big SW winds. Just brutal. 

Phin,  My max temp was 54F yesterday.  Stayed around 50 to 52F last night.  Like you I have lots of bare spots on south facing slopes but otherwise good.  Do you think the downsloping wind off the mountains just across the valley to your south boost you are few degrees with cutter type systems?

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, jculligan said:

Still planning to head to Stowe on Monday, so I'm hoping for some Green Mountain magic out of tomorrow's clipper. Even if it's just a couple inches, it has to do something to freshen the snow surface...

Between the current storm and that one, you’ll definitely get at least a couple of inches.  We’re just about hitting that down here in the valley already, and this is just part of the first storm.  I’m sure the mountains are getting hit with lots of wind, but PF will probably do an accumulations check at some point today.  Although this doesn’t look like a huge period of upslope on the back side of this current system, there’s still some moisture upstream on the radar, so we can expect at least a little more accumulation.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Phin,  My max temp was 54F yesterday.  Stayed around 50 to 52F last night.  Like you I have lots of bare spots on south facing slopes but otherwise good.  Do you think the downsloping wind off the mountains just across the valley to your south boost you are few degrees with cutter type systems?

Definitely. SSW winds are rough here. These "cutters" hit hard in Randolph under the right conditions.

My temp was 51 for hours and hours and then spiked to 60 for a few hours when the rain hit.

It's kinda amazing I still have almost full coverage, actually.

If it gets warm again for a few days next week this pack is probably toast outside some plow piles.