NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[bwt3650]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I see that they are reporting 141" so far this season? That seems really unlikely given the reports from the rest of the mountains around them. We have not had many upslope events and they missed on the last synoptic event. Where is that snow even coming from? Something like 70" inches of it is from events that didn't impact anyone else in NNE?

That seems way out of the realm of believable. Yikes.

If Mansfield is 111 on the season, then 141 is not ridiculous.  I skied both mountains the same day and there is a difference in coverage.  They pulled 5 out of their ass last Friday and it was deep in the woods.  Skied off after the weekend, but even I was surprised.  I really can’t wait to get a full season up there to get some accurate numbers, but you can’t compare it to your spot.  

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

They were definitely in better SW flow today and models had better QPF north during the early part of the system… I can’t say one way or another but I bet they had a bit more than Mansfield.

Anyway, our High Road ground plot was snowier by 1.5” over the live snow cam through 4pm.  The cam location is usually on the conservative side of things on the windy knuckle there at top of Lookout vs center of mountain on Gondola/High Road.

Either way, measuring on a mountain with thousands of vertical feet and miles of difference at times can lead to interesting things.  I truly enjoy the live cam running conservative as that’s generally how I approach weather forecasting and snowfall, ha.  We all know that 3” on that thing is a fun day.  You get double digits there and it’s game on.

Here was High Road at last Gondola ride today.

Thanks for the more detailed analysis.  Glad to see the mountain has gotten a great start on some big snows.

[alex]

3” so far and a scary drive home 

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

If Mansfield is 111 on the season, then 141 is not ridiculous.  I skied both mountains the same day and there is a difference in coverage.  They pulled 5 out of their ass last Friday and it was deep in the woods.  Skied off after the weekend, but even I was surprised.  I really can’t wait to get a full season up there to get some accurate numbers, but you can’t compare it to your spot.  

It'll be good for sure to have someone there more regularly to provide reports.

I am not comparing it to my backyard. I get they are measuring at 4,000 feet in the most weenie spot they could find, and I am in a totally different state that often has a very different climo in terms of how I get snow. That's fine. But we have people here who live in good locations in the Greens too who can calibrate based on their own spots and compare.

I am simply saying I watch the models and radar pretty religiously in the winter like most of us do, and I just have no clue where all that came from.

Must be many evenings where it's quiet everywhere else in NNE but hammering some good fluff at 4,000' at Jay. Could be. You'd have to be there to know. Nothing on radar, which doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Of course, none of this gets into the debate about "fake snow" and how it compresses down the next day to like 1/3 of depth as when it fell. That leads to perception issues, I'm sure. It still really fell but after some sun and warmer temps it's not the 8" of fluff from the night before.

[MRVexpat]

9 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

If Mansfield is 111 on the season, then 141 is not ridiculous.  I skied both mountains the same day and there is a difference in coverage.  They pulled 5 out of their ass last Friday and it was deep in the woods.  Skied off after the weekend, but even I was surprised.  I really can’t wait to get a full season up there to get some accurate numbers, but you can’t compare it to your spot.  

That's the thing. Jay does pull snow out their ass at times which is where some of that confusion comes from those who haven't experienced it. Like I've witnessed on more than one occasion skiing there or the immediate BC where point forecasts show 20-30% pop and "less than an inch" per BTV and then bam 4-6" comes flying thru with nothing appreciable on radar. No doubt the Jay cloud is real. It's when these kinds of differences are reported during a synoptic storm that make me think a bit haha. Place is so rad though. Love skiing there. 

[bwt3650]

16 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

But 30" more than Stowe? I dunno, seems hard to believe.

I have little direct insight into what goes on over in VT on the peaks, so I can't really question it. The resorts in NH are all reporting totals that align pretty well with what I'd expect given the weather situation over here and what I see when I go up there basically every single day. If Cannon was talking about 130" so far this season I'd be like "no way." Their 76" is much more in line with the weather that has occurred in northern NH so far and makes sense to me.

Anyway, this is an ancient topic that has been beaten to death. Not trying to kick up a fight, that Jay number was just eye-popping to me.

Na, I get it.  Jay really has everything going for it to put up top numbers, but it’s easy to question it when there’s no real way to verify and they pull these numbers.  Knowing what I know about the staff and management from the little time I’ve been up here, I get the impression that they are pretty transparent and not into the number inflating game.  Truth is I think 141 is probably a little low for the first week of February.  But again, I’m just going by skiing and comparing it and have no real way to tell the difference between 10 of powder and 13.  
 

Let’s see what they report by the weekend. I actually thought sugarbush would be the big VT winner with this.

[bch2014]

Heading up to Jay tomorrow night to ski Saturday and Sunday. 
 

Will only have Cochran’s, Northeast Slopes, Ascutney, and Suicide Six left after this for VT ski areas. 

[bwt3650]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It'll be good for sure to have someone there more regularly to provide reports.

I am not comparing it to my backyard. I get they are measuring at 4,000 feet in the most weenie spot they could find, and I am in a totally different state that often has a very different climo in terms of how I get snow. That's fine. But we have people here who live in good locations in the Greens too who can calibrate based on their own spots and compare.

I am simply saying I watch the models and radar pretty religiously in the winter like most of us do, and I just have no clue where all that came from.

Must be many evenings where it's quiet everywhere else in NNE but hammering some good fluff at 4,000' at Jay. Could be. You'd have to be there to know. Nothing on radar, which doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Of course, none of this gets into the debate about "fake snow" and how it compresses down the next day to like 1/3 of depth as when it fell. That leads to perception issues, I'm sure. It still really fell but after some sun and warmer temps it's not the 8" of fluff from the night before.

I completely get it.  Radar is tough because I know for a fact it’s a bad spot.  There will be nothing on radar and I’ll check the spotlights before bed and be shocked to see it snowing.  Even watching it come in during a storm, the echoes will die out near Richford and it will be be coming down outside.  PF pointed this out once and I definitely notice it now.  If there’s any moisture nearby at night, you are guaranteed to see flakes once half way up 242.  3k nam seems to be the best at seeing it, but it misses stuff and also can be high on totals.  PF can school us all on the meteorology, but the healthy Mansfield dusting is sometimes more like 2-3 here and I think that adds up…but to the original point, I would question,….but believe the 8 too.

[mreaves]

28 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

Thanks for the more detailed analysis.  Glad to see the mountain has gotten a great start on some big snows.

Closer to home, it looks like BTV is picking our area to jackpot. Their 9:46 map has Montpelier at 14.1”  It’s been creeping up with each update  I would post it if the site didn’t have stupid size limits 

 

[bwt3650]

19 minutes ago, bch2014 said:

Heading up to Jay tomorrow night to ski Saturday and Sunday. 
 

Will only have Cochran’s, Northeast Slopes, Ascutney, and Suicide Six left after this for VT ski areas. 

Nice timing..you’re going to have the best weekend of the season so far.  Hit the face if that’s your thing.  There’s about ten days a year it’s really on and forgiving and I bet Saturday is one of them.

[bwt3650]

6 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Closer to home, it looks like BTV is picking our area to jackpot. Their 9:46 map has Montpelier at 14.1”  It’s been creeping up with each update  I would post it if the site didn’t have stupid size limits 

 

Sugarbush FTW…lol.

[Zeppy]

A little goofy in SVT, maybe an issue with trying to mesh ALB map.

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

3-1/4 inch new since 6:15. 4-1/4” storm total. Heavy snow now and flake size has increased.  Beautiful out there.

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

38 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Sugarbush FTW…lol.

Pretty rare to see Montpelier as the high total expected for highlighted cities/towns.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.38” L.E.

 

We had some rain here in the valley earlier today, but around midday the precipitation switched over to all snow.  It started out quite dense as it transitioned, and even afterward was still composed of generally small flakes.  Flake size has increased a lot since earlier though, so we’ll see what the next round of observations indicates for snow density this evening.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.19 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 5.3

Snow Density: 19.0% H2O

Temperature: 25.5 F

Sky: Snow (2-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

[alex]

Absolutely dumping out

[mreaves]

9 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

Pretty rare to see Montpelier as the high total expected for highlighted cities/towns.

I can’t remember the last time. Our area does ok most of the time but we are rarely the jackpot. 

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I can’t remember the last time. Our area does ok most of the time but we are rarely the jackpot. 

Let’s hope it’s a new trend.

[PhineasC]

22 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I can’t remember the last time. Our area does ok most of the time but we are rarely the jackpot. 

This is a good event to level the playing field. Nothing too complex. Curious to learn more about the southwest-flow upslope jackpot regions. I have a good handle on the east-flow upslope zones here (I am in a really good one), and NW upslope too here and over in VT. SW flow not so much. Always will be (relative) winners and losers here in the mountains.

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

If Mansfield is 111 on the season, then 141 is not ridiculous.  I skied both mountains the same day and there is a difference in coverage.  They pulled 5 out of their ass last Friday and it was deep in the woods.

 

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I am simply saying I watch the models and radar pretty religiously in the winter like most of us do, and I just have no clue where all that came from.

Must be many evenings where it's quiet everywhere else in NNE but hammering some good fluff at 4,000' at Jay. Could be. You'd have to be there to know. Nothing on radar, which doesn't mean it didn't happen.

 

1 hour ago, MRVexpat said:

That's the thing. Jay does pull snow out their ass at times which is where some of that confusion comes from those who haven't experienced it. Like I've witnessed on more than one occasion skiing there or the immediate BC where point forecasts show 20-30% pop and "less than an inch" per BTV and then bam 4-6" comes flying thru with nothing appreciable on radar. No doubt the Jay cloud is real. It's when these kinds of differences are reported during a synoptic storm that make me think a bit haha. Place is so rad though. Love skiing there. 

What I typically observe is that people do a spot check on Jay Peak’s reported snowfall, either at some point during the season, or at the end of the season, and the number is substantially larger than they expect, and often substantially larger than anywhere else east of the Rockies, so something seems off.  Yes, we all assume that the mountain is measuring in a high elevation spot (or spots) that is absolutely optimized for collection.  Beyond that though, the numbers are just the result of what happens when you measure snowfall in that climate every day.

With the climate there, it’s just not possible to grasp the snowfall unless you either monitor what they report every day, measure it yourself every day, or experience it every day.  The pulling 5” out of nowhere that bwt commented on is exactly what happens.  It’s a snowfall microclimate within the Northern Greens already prodigious microclimate.  You can’t monitor the area by radar or the models, you seriously just have to be there to measure the snow that falls.

Actually, I’d say the higher elevations of the Northern Greens are a bit behind the valleys at this point in the season (relatively speaking of course) based on the current numbers report from Stowe and Jay.  Based on my current season snowfall of 73.2”, Jay should be at 169” on the season, and Stowe should be at 148” on the season.  That’s behind average pace of course; if snowfall was running about average, Jay should be at roughly 201” and Stowe should be at roughly 175”.

[PhineasC]

Absolutely textbook heavy snow here right now. Perfect flake size and just crushing.

Wind starting to whip a little. 

Headed out for a jebwalk.

[mreaves]

Measured between 5” & 6”. Snowing pretty hard. 19.4°

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 7.0” Snow/0.91” L.E.

 

Snowfall came in right at a 1.0”/hr. average for this evening period, although the bulk of it fell in the last half of the period, when the average snowfall rate was probably in the 1.5-2.0”/hr. range.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 6.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.53 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.3

Snow Density: 8.8% H2O

Temperature: 19.0 F

Sky: Heavy Snow (2-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 17.0 inches

[powderfreak]

7 hours ago, PhineasC said:

But 30" more than Stowe? I dunno, seems hard to believe.

I have little direct insight into what goes on over in VT on the peaks, so I can't really question it. The resorts in NH are all reporting totals that align pretty well with what I'd expect given the weather situation over here and what I see when I go up there basically every single day. If Cannon was talking about 130" so far this season I'd be like "no way." Their 76" is much more in line with the weather that has occurred in northern NH so far and makes sense to me.

Anyway, this is an ancient topic that has been beaten to death. Not trying to kick up a fight, that Jay number was just eye-popping to me.

Sugarbush skiers though say the same thing about Stowe… we are 30” over them one county north and then Jay is 30” over us another layer north?

[powderfreak]

Eyeballing 8” or so of tiny flake baking soda outside at 4:30am.

Feels like ratios can’t be better than 10:1 despite the cold.

Looks awesome.  Euro has this from 9am to 9pm today so snow should go most of today too.

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

7” new since 10:45 last night for average 1”/hr rates.  Storm total 11-1/4”.  Still dumping.  Schools off, powder day!

[klw]

10 inches as of 6:15 am.  Our door of the garage opens out so it took a good push to get it open enough to get out and shovel out an area for the dog and to get to the snowboard.  Snow definitely has some heft to it but no sign of sleet or any mix over night once we changed over.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 12.2” Snow/1.40” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 5.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.49 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.6

Snow Density: 9.4% H2O

Temperature: 12.9 F

Sky: Snow (2-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 21.5 inches

[PhineasC]

A foot here new OTG. 19 degrees. 16” storm total still seems like a good bet. 28” at my snow stake. 

[klw]

11 inches now.  radar looks like a nicer batch is about to move in after a bit of a letup the past hour or so

 

Storm report from BTV show pretty uniform amount in northern and central VT

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CRH&product=PNS&issuedby=BTV

LOCATION                TOTAL      TIME/DATE  COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL       MEASURED
                     (inches)

NEW YORK

...Essex County...
  Ticonderoga            11.4   555 AM  2/04  Emergency Manager
  Port Henry              9.8   538 AM  2/04  Public

...Franklin County...
  Burke                   7.0   629 AM  2/04  Public

VERMONT

...Caledonia County...
  Groton                 12.0   648 AM  2/04  Public

...Chittenden County...
  1 NE South Burlingto   12.3   659 AM  2/04  NWS Office
  Huntington             12.0   716 AM  2/04  Public
  Jonesville             11.5   724 AM  2/04  Public
  1 E Nashville          11.2   651 AM  2/04  NWS Employee
  West Bolton            11.0   644 AM  2/04  Public
  Hinesburg              10.5   515 AM  2/04  Broadcast Media
  1 S Essex Center       10.3   721 AM  2/04  NWS Employee
  2 NW Westford          10.3   704 AM  2/04  NWS Employee
  2 NNW Williston        10.0   653 AM  2/04  NWS Employee
  1 NNW Burlington        9.5   415 AM  2/04  NWS Employee
  1 SW Milton             9.5   657 AM  2/04  NWS Employee
  Jericho Center          9.0   642 AM  2/04  Public
  Colchester              9.0   709 AM  2/04  Public
  Essex Center            8.5   609 AM  2/04  Public

...Grand Isle County...
  South Hero             12.0   708 AM  2/04  Public

...Lamoille County...
  Morrisville            11.0   717 AM  2/04  Public
  Elmore                  9.0   550 AM  2/04  Public
  Johnson                 8.0   645 AM  2/04  Public

...Orange County...
  Chelsea                13.0   720 AM  2/04  Public
  Randolph               13.0   646 AM  2/04  Public
  Waits River            12.0   644 AM  2/04  Public
  Post Mills             11.0   626 AM  2/04  Public
  Williamstown           10.5   704 AM  2/04  Public
  Strafford              10.5   643 AM  2/04  Public
  Newbury                10.0   613 AM  2/04  Public
  Vershire               10.0   610 AM  2/04  Public

...Rutland County...
  2 N Rutland            10.8   633 AM  2/04  Public
  Wallingford             6.2   726 AM  2/04  Public
  Shrewsbury              6.0   719 AM  2/04  Public

...Washington County...
  1 SW Websterville      13.0   702 AM  2/04  Public
  Waitsfield             11.0   654 AM  2/04  Dept of Highways
  Middlesex              11.0   629 AM  2/04  Public
  East Barre             11.0   619 AM  2/04  Public
  Marshfield             10.0   703 AM  2/04  Public
  Montpelier             10.0   710 AM  2/04  Public
  Cabot                   9.9   515 AM  2/04  Public
  2 NNE Waterbury Cent    8.5   555 AM  2/04  Trained Spotter

...Windsor County...
  Rochester              12.0   611 AM  2/04  Public
  Norwich                10.0   614 AM  2/04  Public
  White River Junction    8.5   622 AM  2/04  Public
  Quechee                 8.0   725 AM  2/04  Public