mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Hope it holds steady or trends slightly south and colder for those of us on the knife’s edge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Warnings are up for most of VT Forecast totals haven't changed that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, mreaves said: Warnings are up for most of VT Forecast totals haven't changed that much Looks like they and GYX are still tossing the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 54 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Looks like they and GYX are still tossing the GFS. Not quite .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 458 AM EST Wednesday... WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... Bottom line up front: 8-12" of snow is expected over a prolonged period, with the bulk of the event occurring Thursday evening and overnight into Friday morning. No major changes seen in the 00Z NWP guidance with the NAM and ECMWF in line with the cooler GFS solutions highlighted for several days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Still a watch from GYX as we're maybe 36 hr until accumulation begins. Their current low/expected/high for Farmington is 4/9/12, with 52% chance of >8". Rain to snow with rapidly falling temps sounds like a real challenge for road crews and maybe for the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRVexpat Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 BTV AFD mentioning 8-10:1 to start followed by 12-15:1 beginning Thursday night. Right side up! A skier's delight. With most models showing 1.2-1.6 QPF thru C/NVT, this should be that solid pack injection that J Spin has been talking about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, tamarack said: Still a watch from GYX as we're maybe 36 hr until accumulation begins. Their current low/expected/high for Farmington is 4/9/12, with 52% chance of >8". Rain to snow with rapidly falling temps sounds like a real challenge for road crews and maybe for the trees. They like to wait on warnings until last moment, I've noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 36 here on south winds. Feels like 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 34 and breezy, first day above 31 since Jan 6. Five deer cleaned up the drops under the most prolific of our 3 apple trees this morning, so I knocked down the last 30-40 hangers-on. Looked like 3 adult deer and 2 fawns from last spring. Dog nibbled at some deer poop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 38 degrees and the sun is breaking out unexpectedly. Feels incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 35°/27° here with bright blue skies. Just took the sleds off the trailer to let the ice melt off the track and suspension. Would like to see some melt off the floor of the trailer too but that might be asking a bit too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Disappointed that BTV only gives me a 2% chance at 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, mreaves said: Disappointed that BTV only gives me a 2% chance at 18" That’s because the map only represents the time period through 1:00 P.M. on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2:05pm Skies are totally clear except for a bit of cirus. Temperature up to 39.4F Sitting in our sunroom without heat on. Amazing how you get acclimated. Bring a Floridian up here this afternoon and they would freeze. Last time I hit 40F was Dec 17th so I really hope the temperature is maxed out so we can extend the streak. Looking forward to the next event. With nor'easters the down sloping off the Whites keeps me in a snowhole. SWFE can give me the biggest snows. In situations like this when there is no wind and we start off as a bit of liquid I put a thin plastic mat over the car windshields. Makes it so much easier than scraping. A garage would be very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 12-15 here, outside shot at 18. Some of these runs have near 2” liquid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: 12-15 here, outside shot at 18. Some of these runs have near 2” liquid. Looks great even 20 seems in reach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 P&C is 9-17. No warnings yet. Doesn’t this start in under 24 hours…? Seems late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Warning for 7-10. Hope to do better than that for sure. Latest GYX map has me in the 12-18 shading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Hit 41F so my 6 week run of below 40F has come to an end. Just for total fun I just looked at todays 12Z GFS Kuchera clown map. It goes out to Feb 16th. Not only does most of C/NNE get over 50" of snow for the period there is not one day the temperature goes above freezing for the nearest reporting station from me, Plymouth NH. Phin are you having fun yet? After this season the wife might be insisting you sell the house and stay down in Maryland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I’ve got the latest BTV NWS maps below. Winter Storm Warnings are up for their coverage area, with accumulations topping out in that 12-18” band. Our point forecast has projected accumulations in the 8-18” range, which generally fits with the map shading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, J.Spin said: I’ve got the latest BTV NWS maps below. Winter Storm Warnings are up for their coverage area, with accumulations topping out in that 12-18” band. Our point forecast has projected accumulations in the 8-18” range, which generally fits with the map shading. I have lots of respect for the BTV office, but those decimal point forecasts are just silly. I like GYX approach of using ranges a lot better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, J.Spin said: I’ve got the latest BTV NWS maps below. Winter Storm Warnings are up for their coverage area, with accumulations topping out in that 12-18” band. Our point forecast has projected accumulations in the 8-18” range, which generally fits with the map shading. Was just going to post this. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Widespread 8-14” IMO is the way to go for most of us in here. Might even be the same liquid as many in ENE saw in the blizzard but much lower snow ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, alex said: I have lots of respect for the BTV office, but those decimal point forecasts are just silly. I like GYX approach of using ranges a lot better They have a chart for that. They actually have quite a few different graphics for winter weather https://www.weather.gov/btv/winter Location Snow Amount Potential Chance of Seeing More Snow Than Low End Snowfall Expected Snowfall High End Snowfall >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18" Plattsburgh, NY 6 9 13 100% 100% 99% 96% 85% 65% 22% 1% Ticonderoga, NY 8 12 14 100% 100% 100% 98% 94% 82% 32% 0% Malone, NY 6 9 13 100% 100% 100% 97% 87% 67% 22% 1% Massena, NY 4 7 12 99% 98% 97% 88% 70% 46% 11% 0% Potsdam, NY 5 9 13 100% 100% 99% 94% 83% 62% 17% 0% Middlebury, VT 9 13 15 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 87% 48% 0% St. Johnsbury, VT 7 12 15 100% 100% 99% 97% 91% 80% 41% 2% Burlington, VT 7 10 14 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 77% 28% 0% Island Pond, VT 8 12 16 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 89% 51% 5% St. Albans, VT 7 9 13 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 72% 22% 0% Stowe, VT 9 14 16 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 92% 58% 2% Randolph, VT 7 13 14 100% 99% 99% 96% 90% 79% 37% 0% Newport, VT 7 10 16 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 83% 43% 5% Rutland, VT 7 12 13 99% 99% 98% 95% 86% 71% 20% 0% Barre, VT 8 12 15 100% 100% 100% 98% 94% 83% 39% 1% Springfield, VT 3 7 9 97% 95% 91% 77% 54% 27% 1% 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 33 minutes ago, mreaves said: They have a chart for that. They actually have quite a few different graphics for winter weather https://www.weather.gov/btv/winter Location Snow Amount Potential Chance of Seeing More Snow Than Low End Snowfall Expected Snowfall High End Snowfall >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18" Plattsburgh, NY 6 9 13 100% 100% 99% 96% 85% 65% 22% 1% Ticonderoga, NY 8 12 14 100% 100% 100% 98% 94% 82% 32% 0% Malone, NY 6 9 13 100% 100% 100% 97% 87% 67% 22% 1% Massena, NY 4 7 12 99% 98% 97% 88% 70% 46% 11% 0% Potsdam, NY 5 9 13 100% 100% 99% 94% 83% 62% 17% 0% Middlebury, VT 9 13 15 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 87% 48% 0% St. Johnsbury, VT 7 12 15 100% 100% 99% 97% 91% 80% 41% 2% Burlington, VT 7 10 14 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 77% 28% 0% Island Pond, VT 8 12 16 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 89% 51% 5% St. Albans, VT 7 9 13 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 72% 22% 0% Stowe, VT 9 14 16 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 92% 58% 2% Randolph, VT 7 13 14 100% 99% 99% 96% 90% 79% 37% 0% Newport, VT 7 10 16 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 83% 43% 5% Rutland, VT 7 12 13 99% 99% 98% 95% 86% 71% 20% 0% Barre, VT 8 12 15 100% 100% 100% 98% 94% 83% 39% 1% Springfield, VT 3 7 9 97% 95% 91% 77% 54% 27% 1% 0% Nice! They definitely do a nice job forecasting for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, alex said: I have lots of respect for the BTV office, but those decimal point forecasts are just silly. I like GYX approach of using ranges a lot better 50 minutes ago, mreaves said: They have a chart for that. They actually have quite a few different graphics for winter weather https://www.weather.gov/btv/winter To be honest, I’m not sure I’ve even taken full notice of those individual numbers at the sites. I assume they’re just their deterministic point forecasts for those specific locations. I think people would treat them like any deterministic snowfall forecast; it’s not going to be the exact number for the snowfall, but it gives you an idea of what the forecast suggests. Listing the ranges in text for each site seems practical for a more probabilistic forecasting approach, but as I look at them now, it has me thinking, what’s the point? If the shading already gives the ranges, and then the text just has those same ranges listed for each site, it’s sort of redundant information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The Euro for several cycles has had this mid-level deformation band it looks like. Be interesting to see if it has a clue. That looks like a fluffer topping on Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Had to be epic skiing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Had to be epic skiing today. Was very good for sure. Felt like 60s out there after the last few weeks. My kids wanted to go “spring mode” which means light jackets and t shirts but I had to remind them it was still like 35 and windy. LOL not quite there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Had to be epic skiing today. Everyone wants spring now, haha. Felt so warm, just skied in a shell jacket and t-shirt underneath this afternoon. Snow was chalky and grippy though south facing lower elevation Spruce even softened up a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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