NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[tamarack]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Precip, Kind of dies off as it moves east on the models as low pressure slips off the coast to the SE.

 

A slightly bigger midget. 
Should avoid ice, however, after icing events on the 6th, 11th, 16th and 22nd this month, fortunately all minor.

[dryslot]

Just now, tamarack said:

A slightly bigger midget. 
Should avoid ice, however, after icing events on the 6th, 11th, 16th and 22nd this month, fortunately all minor.

They have sleet in the forecast too so that is cutting into totals for here i think.

[PhineasC]

Looks like another nice refresher for the Whites. Still awaiting a big storm.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Looks like another nice refresher for the Whites. Still awaiting a big storm.

And PF will be posting radar shots of moderate snow

[J.Spin]

11 hours ago, J.Spin said:

We’ll see what adjustments are done at the afternoon update...

It doesn’t look like there were any major changes in the thinking since this morning, but the Winter Weather Advisories were expanded a bit to the east, and the projected snow accumulations were brought down a bit for the BTV NWS coverage area.  There’s till 4-6” of snow indicated along the peaks in the Northern Greens, and we’ll just have to see how the combination of front side snow, mix, and back side snow comes together.  The latest BTV NWS maps are below:

[alex]

Bretton Woods is enveloped in this ice crystal cloud - I imagine from snowmaking - it’s bizarre but very scenic. Everything is glistening in the headlights 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

There was a tenth of an inch of accumulation on the boards at observations time this morning, which seemed to be a combination of sleet and some freezing rain.  The precipitation since then has been a mix of sleet and freezing rain, but surprisingly, mostly sleet in the past half hour with some additional accumulation.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches (Sleet)

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 24.1 F

Sky: Sleet/Freezing Rain

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

[PhineasC]

Flurries, 17 degrees. 

[backedgeapproaching]

Merry Xmas NNE weenies.

32.1F where ZR come to die---west slopes in SVT. 

[#NoPoles]

Merry Christmas!

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.11” L.E.

 

Over the course of the morning we’ve seen mostly light sleet, with some freezing rain and what appear to be some small flakes as well.  The accumulation on the boards was quite dense as one would imagine.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches (Sleet)

New Liquid: 0.10 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 2.0

Snow Density: 50.0% H2O

Temperature: 29.5 F

Sky: Sleet/Freezing Rain/Snow

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

[powderfreak]

All ZR here though seems like low level snow grains falling now.  That pixie dust stuff.

Wasn't much precip, probably a tenth of an inch of water equiv but the snowpack around home is now very loud.  Like shattering glass.  Pathways and packed down snow is a skating rink.  Trees light glaze, cars all locked up in ice.

Merry Christmas to the crew here.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.12” L.E.

 

This most recent stretch was definitely a lighter period of precipitation, with just 0.01” of liquid.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: Trace

New Liquid: 0.01

Temperature: 30.1 F

Sky: Freezing Drizzle

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.12” L.E.

 

This most recent stretch was definitely a lighter period of precipitation, with just 0.01” of liquid.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: Trace

New Liquid: 0.01

Temperature: 30.1 F

Sky: Freezing Drizzle

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

Is NNE running significantly below (for them ) averages so far for snow (N greens in particular ) . I have been checked out of weather for a while but also mostly Bc it’s been slow 

[J.Spin]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is NNE running significantly below (for them ) averages so far for snow (N greens in particular ) . I have been checked out of weather for a while but also mostly Bc it’s been slow 

Assuming the typical correlation between our site and the rest of the range, we’re certainly behind average pace, but not excessively so.  PF can comment on where things stand for Mansfield if the usual correlation is off for any reason.

November was about average for snowfall, and the first ten days of December were on that same pace, then there was a lull for a week (first plateau on the curve below) before Winter Storm Carrie came through.  We’ve hit another lull since then though.  Here at the house, average cumulative season snowfall for this date is 40.4”, and we’re at 33.1”, but it’s well within one S.D. (± 19.0”).

We could use a bit of catching up of course, but there certainly are some systems in the modeling over the next week or two.

[alex]

0.7” of dense snow with sleet and zr mixed in at times today. Just started with some light snow again. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Thanks J Spin I knew 100% you are the guy to ask in that department . Not too bad then for your spot . I would guess it might be a bit more of a percentage deficit @ Spruce but I’ll ask PF. 

[mreaves]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Thanks J Spin I knew 100% you are the guy to ask in that department . Not too bad then for your spot . I would guess it might be a bit more of a percentage deficit @ Spruce but I’ll ask PF. 

We were actually progressing along decently until winter took a 2 week break and we lost our starting base. 

[J.Spin]

I hadn’t looked outside for a while, but I just looked out and noticed that the deck had whitened up quite a bit more from the grayish sleet color that had been accumulating, and the precipitation has changed over to all snow.  We’ll have to see if snow is going to predominate going forward, but many models indicate the chance for continued snow right through Monday morning.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.15” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 28.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.18” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 13.3

Snow Density: 7.5% H2O

Temperature: 26.2 F

Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

[klw]

A bit of everything frozen yesterday but mostly freezing rain.  We then got 1.1 inches of snow overnight.  

[alex]

1.4” of paste overnight, 2.7” storm total. Just light snow falling. Looks nice. 

[mreaves]

59 minutes ago, klw said:

A bit of everything frozen yesterday but mostly freezing rain.  We then got 1.1 inches of snow overnight.  

Same here but ended up with only .5” of snow. Looks like it adhered to ice somewhat decently so hopefully my driveway isn’t a complete skating rink. 

[J.Spin]

16 hours ago, mreaves said:

We were actually progressing along decently until winter took a 2 week break and we lost our starting base. 

 

16 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would guess it might be a bit more of a percentage deficit @ Spruce but I’ll ask PF. 

 

17 hours ago, J.Spin said:

We could use a bit of catching up of course, but there certainly are some systems in the modeling over the next week or two.

I was just looking through the modeling to see what’s lined up for the coming holiday week, and here are the latest suggestions for storms:

·         Today through tomorrow morning – the backside/upslope potion of this most recent system.  In their AFD, the BTV NWS mentions 1-3”, and I see roughly 2-4” in the Mansfield point forecast.

·         Tomorrow night-Tuesday – a weakening shortwave with a chance for snow showers

·         Tuesday night-Wednesday – another possible system with light precipitation

·         Thursday into Friday – a weak low pressure system that seems to be blending with the previous one on some guidance.

·         Saturday night onward – a potential larger system

None of these are expected to be anything major aside from that larger one that’s fairly far out there, but as usual up here, the pattern is pretty active with chances to freshen the slopes and have flakes in the air.  After the first couple of systems, these events are certainly in flux, but we’ll see how it sorts out to bring snow.  Whatever the case, it’s nice to be topping off the slopes during the holiday week vs. recovering from some huge storm where the area lost a lot of snow because we were in the warm sector.

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

I was just looking through the modeling to see what’s lined up for the coming holiday week, and here are the latest suggestions for storms:

·         Today through tomorrow morning – the backside/upslope potion of this most recent system.  In their AFD, the BTV NWS mentions 1-3”, and I see roughly 2-4” in the Mansfield point forecast.

·         Tomorrow night-Tuesday – a weakening shortwave with a chance for snow showers

·         Tuesday night-Wednesday – another possible system with light precipitation

·         Thursday into Friday – a weak low pressure system that seems to be blending with the previous one on some guidance.

·         Saturday night onward – a potential larger system

None of these are expected to be anything major aside from that larger one that’s fair far out there, but as usual up here, the pattern is pretty active with chances to freshen the slopes and have flakes in the air.  After the first couple of systems, these events are certainly in flux, but we’ll see how it sorts out to bring snow.  Whatever the case, it’s nice to be topping off the slopes during the holiday week vs. recovering from some huge storm where the area lost a lot of snow because we were in the warm sector.

Definitely a much better position to be in than last year. Even with mixed junk that fell yesterday, there was a net gain. 

[wxeyeNH]

3 hours ago, alex said:

1.4” of paste overnight, 2.7” storm total. Just light snow falling. Looks nice. 

The perfect Christmas. The storm started as freezing rain here which surprised me.  I thought snow, mix and then back to snow with the 2nd patch.  3" here

Off topic Alex but maybe others would want to know.  You bought a Tesla this fall.  How is it in the snow and especially cold?  I really want one.  I am concerned with ground clearance on icy snow that could damage the underside.

[alex]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

The perfect Christmas. The storm started as freezing rain here which surprised me.  I thought snow, mix and then back to snow with the 2nd patch.  3" here

Off topic Alex but maybe others would want to know.  You bought a Tesla this fall.  How is it in the snow and especially cold?  I really want one.  I am concerned with ground clearance on icy snow that could damage the underside.

The Tesla has been awesome. No issues whatsoever. Handles really well and while it does cut down battery life a little, it’s not a big deal in real life. You still get 250+ mile range and if needed, there are chargers everywhere. 

[alex]

BTW big improvement in conditions in the last few days. BW opened up a lot of terrain including a glade, and the surface was nice and soft. 

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, alex said:

The Tesla has been awesome. No issues whatsoever. Handles really well and while it does cut down battery life a little, it’s not a big deal in real life. You still get 250+ mile range and if needed, there are chargers everywhere. 

I think I’m more concerned about how long it takes to charge. How is that?  If I were driving a long distance, I wouldn’t want to have to stop for a couple of hours to charge.