jculligan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Spiked from 36F at sunset last night to 56F at some point during the night. It was still 49F when I woke up at 5:00 but we've steadily dropped down to 41F now. My anemometer has registered a peak gust of 30 so far, but winds are likely stronger than that since my yard is quite wooded. No power interruptions yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 year ago, right now Brian and I were in an epic death band of snow. 25" with most of that coming in a few hours. Since then I have not had a snowfall of more than 3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Really liking where I sit with tomorrow's event. Just reviewed the 6" snowfall probabilities on the Euro, GFS, and Canadian ensembles and all seem to be honing in on a central VT/NH jackpot. In NH I like the Lakes Region up to the southern White Mountains (along and south of Franconia, Crawford, and Pinkham Notches) for the best chance of 6" or more. Northern Whites should be good for 3-6 inches. After settling down to 41F this morning, we've bounced back to 45F at midday. No hint of snow anywhere. Looking forward to hopefully turning the corner this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 year ago, right now Brian and I were in an epic death band of snow. 25" with most of that coming in a few hours. Since then I have not had a snowfall of more than 3.5"Dang, that's a rough statSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I saw this in this morning’s BTV NWS AFD, and you certainly can’t knock the enthusiasm! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 139 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM EST Friday...Overall no major changes to the forecast we`ve been highlighting for the weekend, but signals are now pointing towards an all snow event with no mix for once. Models are in good agreement showing low pressure tracking west to east along a stalled frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic states Saturday afternoon to east of Cape Cod Saturday night. Where previous guidance indicated a 850-700mb dry slot working into central/southern portions of the forecast area Saturday night, that now appears to stay south of the region which will keep the DGZ saturated throughout the storm. Hence, we`re finally looking at an all snow event with no mix, yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Upgraded to a Warning for tomorrow for home. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ012&warncounty=VTC027&firewxzone=VTZ012&local_place1=West Norwich VT&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=43.7543&lon=-72.3728#.Ybz8-GjMJPY Caledonia-Washington-Orange-Windsor-Eastern Addison- Eastern Rutland- Including the cities of St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Bradford, Randolph, Springfield, White River Junction, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 330 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, northeast and southern Vermont. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will develop across the region from south to north beginning mid-day Saturday and may become briefly heavy at times into the early overnight hours before ending around sunrise Sunday. Some localized pockets of light freezing drizzle are possible early Sunday morning, which could make surfaces slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 3 hours ago, klw said: Upgraded to a Warning for tomorrow for home. I got an alert that we’d been put under a Winter Storm Warning as well – it looks like that’s the alert level for everything east of the spine of the Greens. The latest BTV NWS maps are below. Our point forecast through Sunday is ~0.65” of liquid with a call for near the 6-10” range in snow. If the snow is dense as it can often be with these types of systems, we can certainly hedge toward the lower part of that range, but we’ll see how it plays out. I certainly plan to run liquid analyses as usual to see what the ratios are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 I wonder why I don’t get NWS alerts on my phone? I checked the settings and that is turned on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Well see how it plays down here in the southern part of the state, warm nose has never, ever underperformed...death, taxes and mid level warmth going further north than modeled. Feel like 3-4" maybe more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 23 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: 1 year ago, right now Brian and I were in an epic death band of snow. 25" with most of that coming in a few hours. Since then I have not had a snowfall of more than 3.5" We got 1.9" from the northerly fringe - less for the Grinch to destroy. Season's first warned storm, though low end at best - local forecast "most likely" is 6". Our church's Christmas program is scheduled for 7 PM today and tomorrow, and though the storm isn't all that big, it could hardly have worse timing for tonight's presentation. Good chance we scrub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Flakes started up here at our site right around noon. It seemed like snow was on its way though, because Camel’s Hump had disappeared into the snow quite a while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 There’s been a bit of an update in the BTV NWS advisories map, with some Winter Storm Warnings being implemented in the Adirondacks, but there’s also been an update in the Event Total Snowfall map; there are some changes along the spine of the Greens with the areas of 8-12” shading vs. yesterday’s update. Our point forecast got a bump to near the 6-12” range. I didn’t pick anything out of the BTV NWS AFD that really detailed why there were some increases, but it may be because of the reduced dry slot issues they spoke about yesterday, or they did their usual last minute tweaks as the most recent modeling suggests. Our projected L.E. went up a bit to 0.70”, but that would still argue for the lower end of that range unless ratios are relatively large. I guess we’ll see what type of flakes we get. The most recent BTV NWS maps for the storm are below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timp Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Snow just started in Williston. Going to head out soon and drive back to Hyde Park. Always interesting to see how precip and rates change as you drive through the spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patriot21 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Started here about 12:45. Small flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Just a steady light snow- around a 1/2inch so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Just a steady light snow- around a 1/2inch so far 1” on the dot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Enjoy the snow! The mosquitoes are returning here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Event totals: 2.6” Snow/0.28” L.E. The 6:00 P.M. liquid analysis is in, and it reveals a snow density just a bit above 10% H2O, which is not nearly as dense as some of these events can produce. The point forecast here called for 2-4” today, so the accumulation thus far seems right on track with that. I think the liquid might be a bit more than expected for this period, but I’d have to look into the exact numbers. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.6 inches New Liquid: 0.28 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 9.3 Snow Density: 10.8% H2O Temperature: 27.7 F Sky: Snow (2-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 There were some substantial changes in the maps for the afternoon update from the BTV NWS – the Winter Storm Warnings were expanded even into the Champlain Valley, and the projected accumulations were bumped. They talked about the reasoning in the afternoon update: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 431 PM EST Sat Dec 18 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 431 PM EST Saturday...Winter storm warnings have been expanded and are now in effect for most of the North Country based on 12 hour snowfall in excess of 6 inches in most locations. No big changes from our previous thinking as the ongoing snowfall has generally played out as expected. However, as the event has begun we are seeing ground truth and latest model data support generally higher snowfall amounts than previously forecast. In particular, the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast one hourly precipitation rate has performed well, showing areas of >0.05" liquid spreading across much of our area this afternoon. As a result, expect hourly snowfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch will persist for several hours, tending to shift towards eastern Vermont, before tapering off towards 2 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timp Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 3” here and starting to crank now. Thinking we can double that at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 This looks like a solid event for everyone that frequents this subforum except me.. Should have a nice sleet base though mix line north of RUT now. I dont think anything showed it getting up that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Nothing to write home about. We might be at 2inches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Total bustogenesis! 1.2" of snow before change to sleet occurred around 3:30 pm. Straight freezing rain now at 30° F, after a 5 pm low of 25° F. Water is dripping off the roof and freezing so everything is going to be an ice rink. This storm verified about 50-60 miles north of forecast as I was expecting 4-6" of snow and sleet. I was hoping this one would work out because we have nothing else in the offing. This may well be one of those ratter winters... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 4.0" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Event totals: 6.3” Snow/0.69” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 3.7 inches New Liquid: 0.41 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 9.0 Snow Density: 11.1% H2O Temperature: 28.6 F Sky: Snow (2-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Event totals: 7.1” Snow/0.77” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.08 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 22.6 F Sky: Snow (1-4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jculligan Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 5.0" here. OVC and 25F with a few flakes still floating down out there. Beautiful morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Around 2 inches here This was supposed to 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 3.5” at my casa. Dianes ruler is broken lol. Still an underperformer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 25 minutes ago, alex said: 3.5” at my casa. Dianes ruler is broken lol. Still an underperformer Lol I realized the 2 was still in my post box from last night and it didn't change to 3. I was supposed to post around 3 inches. I dont have a ruler, I have an eyeball and a railing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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