ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha I mean it makes the most sense. Maximize the cold shot, make all the snow you can before the mild day on Thursday. Push it all out on Thur/Thur night and open Friday. Also bonus of employees get Thanksgiving with family for the most part. PRob going to be getting good upslope snows on Friday too...even over at BW. This looks like a pretty robust event because there's a lot of deeper level synoptic moisture associated with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, mreaves said: I just mentioned the Winooski Valley streamer in the main November discussion thread. Just a few flakes at my house but could see the hills by 89 shrouded in snow. Sure enough, it was snowing decently as I got to exit 6 and was like that all the way to Montpelier. The image above illustrates that perfectly. Funny you said that. I had to run to Berlin for something and the snowiest spots were Exit 9 and then again up near the Berlin Mall. Didn’t matter elevation or location, it was just like you could tell where stringer snow showers had passed through. It would change by the mile on 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Funny you said that. I had to run to Berlin for something and the snowiest spots were Exit 9 and then again up near the Berlin Mall. Didn’t matter elevation or location, it was just like you could tell where stringer snow showers had passed through. It would change by the mile on 89. It's like a garden hose flopping around. It shoots through the gap in the mountains and wavers back and forth. Three Mile Hill between exits 8 and 7 provides lift so when you get to the top at exit 7 driving conditions are often much worse than at exit 8. From 7 all the way to exit 4 consistently has the worst driving conditions. Of course the elevation gets up to 1800' so that contributes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 hours ago, J.Spin said: I was able to get the latest BTV NWS AFD that discusses all the snow that’s around today. It appears that the snow is associated with an upper-level trough moving slowly across the area with weak forcing and low-level moisture. They could certainly update the discussion though, because the snowfall around here is more robust than that text would suggest. It was on and off snow showers earlier this morning with even some occasional breaks of blue sky, but now it’s wall-to-wall snow, with reduced visibility at times. I was just back in the center of town and it’s the same thing there. The precipitation is still light, fluffy snow, so I don’t expect they’ll have to worry about road conditions, but with the radar showing that there’s more moisture upstream, these conditions will probably continue for a bit. 1 hour ago, mreaves said: I just mentioned the Winooski Valley streamer in the main November discussion thread. Just a few flakes at my house but could see the hills by 89 shrouded in snow. Sure enough, it was snowing decently as I got to exit 6 and was like that all the way to Montpelier. The image above illustrates that perfectly. 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Funny you said that. I had to run to Berlin for something and the snowiest spots were Exit 9 and then again up near the Berlin Mall. Didn’t matter elevation or location, it was just like you could tell where stringer snow showers had passed through. It would change by the mile on 89. The BTV NWS did make an update to their discussion to better reflect today’s conditions: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 100 PM EST Tue Nov 23 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 PM EST Tuesday...Flurries have become more of a snow shower with a powdery dusting seen in parts of northern and central Vermont during the late morning into early afternoon. Have added mention of snow showers into much of this area, but little impact is expected with negligible liquid equivalent and modest wind and visibility restrictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 21 degrees. Chilly day. Light snow off and on all day. Just a coating in spots. Wintry appeal stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 21 degrees. Chilly day. Light snow off and on all day. Just a coating in spots. Wintry appeal stuff. It is damn cold. 24F at MVL right now and low 20s like you at 1500ft. First day I’m frozen walking the dog right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1500ft is pretty snowy. Looked like a couple inches of fluff today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Haven't fired up the heated sidewalks yet? My monitor is saved from a high-impact event for another day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Haven't fired up the heated sidewalks yet? My monitor is saved from a high-impact event for another day. Propane farm problems. Can’t get the propane where it needs to go to heat them! Winter aesthetics rejoice! Or wait, did you drive up and sabotage it?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.02” L.E. We had continued snow in the afternoon here at our site to about the same tune as the morning. I headed to Burlington in the afternoon on some errands, and snow accumulations really dropped off pretty quickly west of the pass here – Bolton Flats had just an isolated dusting in areas where the snow had collected. There really wasn’t much accumulation to note in the Champlain Valley, but the views were great. You could see areas off to the south and east with some breaks in the clouds, the greater Burlington area was cloudy with occasional flakes and light snow showers, and then off to the east the mountains were socked in with snow. In town it definitely felt like one of those November holiday types of days with the snow and people ramping up for Thanksgiving. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 25.0 F Sky: Light Snow (2-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 44 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 1500ft is pretty snowy. Looked like a couple inches of fluff today. We’ll probably have a bit more in the near future – the radar looks like it’s ramping up a bit the way it did earlier this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Where is that moisture even coming from? Definition of a NVT moose fart snower..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Definitely a stripe of heavier accumulation that followed 89. Ground was much whiter up at the Shaws in Berlin that is is here a few miles East. I think the technical tee for the amount I have gotten is a skiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Where is that moisture even coming from? Definition of a NVT moose fart snower..lol. Oh, they’ll call it fake but they’re all jealous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 33 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Where is that moisture even coming from? Definition of a NVT moose fart snower..lol. It actually was sort of a mystery at first, and it probably wouldn’t have been too big a deal if it hadn’t been quite as widespread and persistent. Once the BTV NWS AFD links started working, they did talk about it in a couple of spots: NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 944 AM EST Tuesday...With the cold air mass now in place, flurries are being squeezed out of a shallow cloud layer in portions of the Adirondack region and northern Vermont. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 322 PM EST Tuesday...heading into Friday evening/night as the upper low shifts east and phases with offshore shortwave energy (which coincidentally is what`s causing snow showers today), it`s blocked by a 1040mb high parked in the northern Atlantic. But watching that stuff just plow into the spine all day, it does leave one scratching the head a bit with the inclination to still just chalk it up to… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 24.5° and the wind is roaring right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 MWN down to -2° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 I was in Conway earlier - usual upslope set up with clear sky there, flurries picking up half way through the notch and then light snow in Bretton Woods. Just a coating of accumulation though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 28 minutes ago, J.Spin said: It actually was sort of a mystery at first, and it probably wouldn’t have been too big a deal if it hadn’t been quite as widespread and persistent. Once the BTV NWS AFD links started working, they did talk about it in a couple of spots: NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 944 AM EST Tuesday...With the cold air mass now in place, flurries are being squeezed out of a shallow cloud layer in portions of the Adirondack region and northern Vermont. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 322 PM EST Tuesday...heading into Friday evening/night as the upper low shifts east and phases with offshore shortwave energy (which coincidentally is what`s causing snow showers today), it`s blocked by a 1040mb high parked in the northern Atlantic. But watching that stuff just plow into the spine all day, it does leave one scratching the head a bit with the inclination to still just chalk it up to… The first real cold air mass helps a lot. 850mb temps of -12C to -15C is right in the sweet spot for fantastic snow growth from orographic snows. I love seeing -12C at H85 as that's the key dendritic growth zone lining up just above the peaks. Hasn't been a lot of snow (up to a couple inches for the high terrain) but the flakes have been big and fluffy all day. You can tell snow growth is pretty much maxed out for the very light amount of water. The 2" at 1,500ft probably had 50:1 ratios, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Regarding the weekend, the 18z EURO still shows some decent snows. It's definitely not as robust as it was yesterday or Sunday but the set-up is still very good. 1) Temperatures at 850mb look like the snow growth zone will be perfect right above the peaks with -12C at 850mb on Friday night. 2) Cold air advection. CAA on cyclonic flow is a main ingredient. Check. 3) The upper level lows are in a climo favored area per local research papers (northern ME near FVE). The only downfall is the lows don't go vertically stacked and the surface low tries to escape east, likely preventing a high-end event. But still a good solid period of upslope looks likely, 6-12" early guess for the ski areas? Some images... 90 hour ECMWF. 700mb winds showing cyclonic NW flow around a low that is situated right over FVE. This is fairly textbook location of H7 feature for NVT. Surface precip and 850mb temps... surface low is a bit east of where I'd like it but the upper level support should help with cyclonic moisture flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 42 minutes ago, mreaves said: Oh, they’ll call it fake but they’re all jealous. LOL, yea, that’s apparently been the latest weenie attempt at a pejorative for the mountain climates. The whole effort is obvious, but whatever helps entertain them through the drudgery I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Regarding the weekend, the 18z EURO still shows some decent snows. It's definitely not as robust as it was yesterday or Sunday but the set-up is still very good. 1) Temperatures at 850mb look like the snow growth zone will be perfect right above the peaks with -12C at 850mb on Friday night. 2) Cold air advection. CAA on cyclonic flow is a main ingredient. Check. 3) The upper level lows are in a climo favored area per local research papers (northern ME near FVE). The only downfall is the lows don't go vertically stacked and the surface low tries to escape east, likely preventing a high-end event. But still a good solid period of upslope looks likely, 6-12" early guess for the ski areas? Some images... 90 hour ECMWF. 700mb winds showing cyclonic NW flow around a low that is situated right over FVE. This is fairly textbook location of H7 feature for NVT. Surface precip and 850mb temps... surface low is a bit east of where I'd like it but the upper level support should help with cyclonic moisture flow. Let’s hope some future runs improve those totals some but I will take what it’s showing now. Will be interesting to see the next day or two of runs especially the hi res models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 Fire roaring, temps in the teens, snow swirling outside, sipping some brandy by my picture window... this is what it's all about. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Fire roaring, temps in the teens, snow swirling outside, sipping some brandy by my picture window... this is what it's all about. You’ll remember this on 12/25. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said: Where is that moisture even coming from? Definition of a NVT moose fart snower..lol. Hard to say. It's definitely still going as we have fun fluffy snow here. Transient for me, but for other areas it's been steady snowfall. Looks like it's switched more towards the Camels Hump are and south of I-89/Winooski Valley for best pulse. Those yellows are likely brief 1"/hr or higher type flakes, but residence time will be a limiting factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 Snowed here all day and amounted to a dusting. This stuff has no water in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hard to say. It's definitely still going as we have fun fluffy snow here. Transient for me, but for other areas it's been steady snowfall. Looks like it's switched more towards the Camels Hump are and south of I-89/Winooski Valley for best pulse. Those yellows are likely brief 1"/hr or higher type flakes, but residence time will be a limiting factor. Lake Champlain? St Johns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hard to say. It's definitely still going as we have fun fluffy snow here. Transient for me, but for other areas it's been steady snowfall. Looks like it's switched more towards the Camels Hump are and south of I-89/Winooski Valley for best pulse. Those yellows are likely brief 1"/hr or higher type flakes, but residence time will be a limiting factor. It’s been pretty steady here, not inch per hour stuff, but probably ½“/hr. stuff. This evening has definitely been the most productive period of the day though, both in terms of snow and L.E. The next analysis for our site would be at midnight, so we’ll see where things stand, but I think we’re at about 3” for the storm thus far. We’re used to mountain magic, but this is a bit more potent than the forecasts would suggest - these bonus snows for the mountains and valleys are great when there’s not actually a “storm” around. The streamers are certainly laying down some accumulations where they’re hitting: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Event totals: 3.4” Snow/0.09” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.5 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 23.9 F Sky: Light Snow (2-20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Synoptic, upslope, Synoptic, upslope. How ski areas getting that base built next ten on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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