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Tropical Depression Victor

Iceresistance

By Iceresistance,
in Tropical Headquarters

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.3N 24.6W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty 
was located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 24.6 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 
couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to 
become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021

The area of low pressure located over the far eastern tropical 
Atlantic that NHC has been monitoring has now become a tropical 
depression, the twentieth tropical cyclone of the 2021 Atlantic 
hurricane season. Satellite images indicate that the system is 
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that have become 
fairly well organized around the center.  An ASCAT-A pass from a  
few hours ago indicated that the system now has a well-defined 
circulation and that the radius of maximum wind is 30-40 n mi north 
of the center.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the 
ASCAT data and the T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and 
SAB.  The minimum pressure of 1007 mb is partially based on data 
from a ship report that passed near the depression.

Based on satellite fixes, the depression appears to be moving 
west-northwestward at about 12 kt.  The system is currently located 
on the south side of a deep-layer ridge, and that feature should 
keep the cyclone on a west-northwest track during the next couple of 
days.  After that time, the models show a mid- to upper-level low 
developing over the central tropical Atlantic, which erodes the 
western portion of the ridge.  This change in the steering flow 
should cause the system to turn northwestward on Friday and then 
northward toward the end of the forecast period.  Although the 
models generally agree on the evolution of the large-scale pattern, 
there are notable differences in the details, which leads to a fair 
amount of spread concerning when and where the turn to the north 
occurs.  The GFS is farthest east while the ECMWF shows the 
westernmost solution.  The NHC track forecast lies between those 
models and is near the TVCA multi-model consensus.  

The depression is expected to remain in conducive environmental 
conditions for strengthening during the next 2 or 3 days.  During 
that time period, the storm is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C 
waters while embedded within an airmass of high mid-level moisture 
and very low wind shear (less than 10 kt).  Therefore, steady 
strengthening seems likely, and the NHC forecast brings the system 
to a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days.  
Beyond a few days, however, the models show a pronounced increase 
in southwesterly shear and a notably drier atmosphere. These 
unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening 
and promote a weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast is a near 
a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z  8.3N  24.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z  8.8N  25.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z  9.5N  27.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 10.3N  29.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 11.2N  31.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 12.4N  33.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 14.0N  35.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 18.4N  38.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 24.3N  40.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021

...VICTOR A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.7N 27.3W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was
located near latitude 8.7 North, longitude 27.3 West.  Victor is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A 
west-northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic is expected through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and 
Victor could become a hurricane on Friday.  A weakening trend is 
expected to begin over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021

Victor is gradually getting better organized.  AMSR2 microwave 
data from 0300 UTC showed that the low-level circulation has become 
more defined, with most convective banding features located west and
southwest of the center.  Victor's intensity is now estimated to be 
40 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, 
respectively, and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS around 40 kt.

Victor's vector is toward the west-northwest (290 degrees) at 11 
kt, and this heading should continue for the next 36 hours while 
the storm is located to the south a deep-layer ridge located over 
the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic.  In about 2 days, a 
mid- to upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central 
Atlantic, causing Victor to curve around the western periphery of 
the ridge, which gets shunted eastward between the Azores and the 
Canary Islands.  The track models are in generally good agreement 
on this scenario, and most of them are clustered tightly among each 
other.  Two notable exceptions, which are discounted at this time, 
are the HWRF and ECMWF models.  The HWRF, which is stronger than 
the other models, is way off to the east, while the ECMWF lies 
off to the south and west, a tendency that we've observed recently 
with other storms in the deep tropics.  The NHC track forecast is 
not changed much from the previous iteration and lies close to the 
GFS, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCA solutions.

If the low-level circulation is in fact becoming better defined as 
shown by microwave imagery, Victor should be able to continue 
strengthening for the next couple of days in an environment of low 
vertical shear and over warm waters of roughly 28 degrees Celsius.  
The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance 
during this period and continues to show Victor reaching hurricane 
strength in about 36 hours.  Once the aforementioned mid- to 
upper-level low forms, strong southerly to southwesterly deep-layer 
shear is expected to develop over Victor and induce a weakening 
trend in about 3 days.  The intensity forecast has been lowered a 
bit during the latter part of the forecast period given the trends 
in the intensity models, but it is not as low as the HCCA and IVCN 
aids.  Interestingly, many of the global models suggest that the 
shear could be so strong that Victor might weaken to a depression 
or even degenerate into a remnant low by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z  8.7N  27.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z  9.4N  28.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 10.2N  30.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 11.2N  32.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 12.6N  33.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 14.4N  35.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 16.6N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 22.0N  40.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 27.3N  41.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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