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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2021


It's Always Sunny
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3 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

Just switched from FR to sleet in S Denton County. That was about 4 hours of FR.I feel this started a little earlier than expected but didn't quite progress as bad as the models depicted. I saw a clear coat of ice on tree branches about 9PM and that stays basically unchanged as of now, which is fine for powerline. Hopefully I didn't call that too early!

Edit: looks like a portion of Addison lost power based on Oncor map. Not sure if @Powerball is still on:)

If I did lose power, it was back on when I woke up 1/2 hour ago.

That said, the faster sleet transition and the fact that surface temps stalled right around freezing during the burst of liquid precip, has definitely saved us from something that could have been much worse.

Now if you want some :weenie: fodder, the 09z RAP is showing 4-6" of snow/sleet for the Metroplex. :clown:

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2 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Still all sleet here. Not sure snow makes it at this point...

There's a massive pocket of subsidence passing over much of the Metroplex right now.

So that's not helping with the transition either.

BTW, heavy sleet for hours on end is shit. The only redeeming quality is that it's not freezing rain.

 

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29 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

Finally snowing pretty heavily here in Arlington, it’s a shame we couldn’t flip over to snow sooner. 

84D9017E-33F6-4121-A989-D8F079C4FA12.jpeg

Gorgeous. Over too soon I’m afraid, but the forecast for my area was dead on. Unless we get another surprise snow shower we are done in NW Ftw.

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Hoping the models showing light right w/ temps hitting freezing around 3 pm would get my Houston area district to cancel school.  I didn't think light rain on city streets right at freezing the day after 70F weather would do anything in the metro area (College Station and maybe even Conroe, different story) but I was hoping it would trigger cancelled school.  Stuck at 40F with intermittent rain last few hours, 3 km NAM picks up on the city, 7-8 pm quick change to freezing rain doesn't happen at all in central Harris county.  Trace.

 

Aggie Land flips this afternoon ~ 2-ish on model, bouncing 33-34F, seems reasonable, the county road bridges there could get tricky, but I doubt they really needed to cancel school.  But I doubt the students are complaining.  Austin went over to light ice this morning, so cancelling school there, even for a few hundredths, made sense.

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GFS would be almost a tenth freezing rain around Houston, from sunset to almost midnight.

 

Not sure how much would stick to roads, TXDoT is spraying CaCl2 solution even here, but we do have enough creeks and bayous, even in Houston, there might be an untreated overpass.  I'd cancel school on principal, and let us out early in case the change happens a touch earlier.  But not happening.

 

1 winter day, 17 flood days in schools in Houston area since 2015.  Harvey was 10 days, 2 weeks, on its own.  Imelda was a flood day, one of the Greek storms (Beta?) was a flood day.  Ice and no school, pretty rare.

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22 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Things getting quiet down here in Denton and Collin Ct. After all this is not nearly as bad as the models depicted. I'm curious why they missed with so many consensus and consistency for about a week. But after all this is good for the metroplex!

I think the harder rate of rain combined with such slowly falling temps saved the northeast side of the metro area from a much worse outcome. Everything ran off before it could freeze.

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8 minutes ago, SWineman said:

I think the harder rate of rain combined with such slowly falling temps saved the northeast side of the metro area from a much worse outcome. Everything ran off before it could freeze.

For us in Hays County well south of the metroplex, what saved us from a potentially destructive ice storm was the changeover from light to moderate freezing rain, to sleet about 520am. Looks like we still got about three sixteenths of an inch of ice accretion down here, then some sleet. We got a boatload of heavy rain before that, about three and a half to perhaps four inches of rain. Buda is wayyyyy ahead so far this new year in the rain department, with about seven and a half inches of rain since Jan 1.

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